PhineasC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I don't understand forecasts showing snow/ice to rain. The models have not shown that for a few days now. EIther we go rain to snow, get all rain, or just get all snow. Also, with lousy surface temps and cold upper layers I don't see much of an ice threat. Pretty bad when a random weenie can out-forecast these "professionals." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 To be fair it was from this morning They ran the same graphic when I saw this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Sleet and ice? What are they looking at? For that you need a low/mid level warm layer and a near surface COLD layer. We have the reverse. Anyway...I know I'm 3 hours late, but the 18z GFS and NAM are tast-ee-licious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 21z SREF at 48 hrs has 0c 850 line along blue ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 21z SREF at 48 hrs has 0c 850 line along blue ridge If it goes east from there we are golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 If it goes east from there we are golden. Yeah, they crash as precip moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Maybe the coldest SREF run yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I don't understand forecasts showing snow/ice to rain. The models have not shown that for a few days now. EIther we go rain to snow, get all rain, or just get all snow. Also, with lousy surface temps and cold upper layers I don't see much of an ice threat. Pretty bad when a random weenie can out-forecast these "professionals." YES!!! My local forecast says just that....Models show just the opposite. Rain to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Sleet and ice? What are they looking at? For that you need a low/mid level warm layer and a near surface COLD layer. We have the reverse. Another reason why it boggles the mind people around here look to the local news for their weather information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yeah, they crash as precip moves in. Yup, at 51 its east of i-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmondsnow Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I may be a weenie, but the local mets are being way too cynical when the models are staring them right in the face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 2m temps drop below freezing around 57 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Feb/ 2 was am awful storm if you lived in DC, but noone really cared cause the Big Dog was already being majorly hyped as being right around the corner. Forecasts were for 3 to 6 inches and WSW were up, but the gradient across the city was among the steepest I have ever seen. From about Columbia Heights-Adams Morgan south to the Potomac River there was maybe a half-inch accumulation on the grass and nothing on the pavement from that storm, despite constant snowfall from like 5 p.m. to midnight. But I remember driving home that evening late and by the time you got to Upper Northwest there was a plowable 5 inches on everything. Just something to think about for this storm if someone has to make a forecast and using that as a possible comparision. May want to make a special exclusion zone for much of the city if things look similar to that storm regards to temps, which seems like a strong possibility. Got a good 4-4.5" out of that in upper NW. A nice little dynamic storm. It really came down for a few hours after 9 or 10 or so. As I recall, the rates were heavier than during the 1.30 event that dumped on Richmond. It would have been the event of the season during an embarassingly large number of winters recently. In 09-10, it barely registered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yup, at 51 its east of i-95 Excellent way to kick off the 00Z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 2m temps drop below freezing around 57 hours Do you look at anything other than surface temps on the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Maybe the coldest SREF run yet. Looks like about a 10-20mi shift southward in where the 0C surface line is during Wed evening/night. 850mb 0C line is actually a bit farther north midday Wednesday, but catches up and goes farther south than the 15z run by evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 2m temps may be very slightly cooler than 15z though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 2m temps drop below freezing around 57 hours essentially over by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Got that ol' nostaligic 2010 feeling. First time this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Got that ol' nostaligic 2010 feeling. First time this season. Beginning to agree with you.....my pessimism is eroding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I don't know anything about DC TV Weathercasters, but how many are actually real meteorologists with a degree in Atmospheric Science or Meteorology? And no, an AMS seal means nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I don't know anything about DC TV Weathercasters, but how many are actually real meteorologists with a degree in Atmospheric Science or Meteorology? And no, an AMS seal means nothing. I take it you don't see an ice threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I don't know anything about DC TV Weathercasters, but how many are actually real meteorologists with a degree in Atmospheric Science or Meteorology? And no, an AMS seal means nothing. Not sure but I expect that graphic to change if 0z NAM looks like the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I take it you don't see an ice threat? Nada. Note sure what they are thinking except they may have used critical thicknesses combined with MOS. Both won't be all that helpful here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I don't know anything about DC TV Weathercasters, but how many are actually real meteorologists with a degree in Atmospheric Science or Meteorology? And no, an AMS seal means nothing. Bob Ryan, that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Bob Ryan, that's it. Isn't Topper Shut also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 30 hr on NAM has a very strong ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxLover Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I don't know anything about DC TV Weathercasters, but how many are actually real meteorologists with a degree in Atmospheric Science or Meteorology? And no, an AMS seal means nothing. Often think of that myself watching some of these forecasts. Don't know the answer, but I bet it is less than 50% nationwide. Sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Isn't Topper Shut also? "studied" Meteorology but has a history degree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 boy that 850 dropped south nicely between 24-30 hrs on NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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