stormtracker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 i would hesitate to throw numbers around yet. if the gfs evolution is right 2-4 is probably low as a top end even in dc. Well yeah, its low as a max...I mean, sure we could see up to 6, 7, 8 inches..but a reasonable and realistic call is 2 to 4. I did say that if the GFS moved toward the NAM I'd get excited and I think it did. Now watch 0z back off. Regardless, we all know what the 0z runs will be........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Things are getting very exciting now........for a while I thought I'd be screwed while my home gets a sizable storm, but I like that I 95 is starting to look much better. But of course there's still reason to be wary but I think I'll at least see something. Heck, I'd love to even see another Feb 2010 type event (Feb 2, that is). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 <br />Tommy T the best met in Balt just said rain to snow wed night and accumulations loook "likely"<br /> lol that's not saying much considering the competition *looks at marty bass* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Well yeah, its low as a max...I mean, sure we could see up to 6, 7, 8 inches..but a reasonable and realistic call is 2 to 4. I did say that if the GFS moved toward the NAM I'd get excited and I think it did. Now watch 0z back off. Regardless, we all know what the 0z runs will be........ I would expect them to be good at this pt. I'm nervous about too much north shift but we have seen decent consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I dont beleive in the 6-12 inches backend, surface will probally get up to the mid to maybe upper 30s, no real high pressure wont let temps drop enough, any snow will be wet IMO, maybe an inch or two on the backend, rest is rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Wes, i have 3 hr increment gfs maps. Your correct on the timing, its right around hr 51, prob hr 52 or around 21 or 22z. From hr 48-51 dc gets .25 qpf as rain...hr 51-57 dc gets .75-1 qpf as frozen Thanks! It's sure an interesting storm. If the rates are that heavy, precip should certainly be snow even with the marginal boundary layer temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 //Start personal note// Great. All this year I hope for a decent snow because I missed them all last year. Now the one time I leave the area, my flight takes off at 10pm on Wednesday night, just as that snow is arriving. Aaargh. //End personal note// Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I dont beleive in the 6-12 inches backend, surface will probally get up to the mid to maybe upper 30s, no real high pressure wont let temps drop enough, any snow will be wet IMO, maybe an inch or two on the backend, rest is rain. If the snow comes down as heavily as the GFS depicts, I don't think we'll waste more than a half hour on snow that melts on contact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This. 2-4" would be a VERY good scenario, and folks shouldn't get super greedy because of one set of 18Z runs. Quite honestly these snow maps being produced are ridiculous--and snow falling from the sky doesn't equate to snow sticking on the ground or even the grass for that matter. Thank you. That's a point I tried to make in another thread, but everyone is too focused qpf output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yea, Ellinwood's map is the best call given the most recent turn of events. No complaints from me if it verifies. When is the last time we picked up the bulk of the precip from the ULL swinging through and the coastal basically not doing much? I don't have the memory a lot of people do on this board but I have a vivid memory back in the mid 80's (maybe 86?) when an ULL basically blew up to the south of DC and we had thundersnow and 6 inches in just a couple of hours. Definitely not comparing the setup at all. I think that was a potent clipper. I do know that a potent ULL can drop some sick snowfall rates. I guess that is what I'm most excited about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I dont beleive in the 6-12 inches backend, surface will probally get up to the mid to maybe upper 30s, no real high pressure wont let temps drop enough, any snow will be wet IMO, maybe an inch or two on the backend, rest is rain. Please keep us updated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 lol that's not saying much considering the competition *looks at marty bass* Marty Bass isnt a met, hes a wannabe..Bob Turk is he Cheif met there...Not really the place to discuss but if I have to rank Baltimore tv mets it would be 1. Tom T 2. Tony Pann. 3. Justin Berk. 4. John Collins. 5. Vytus Ried 6. Bob Turk then the others I pretty much only watch WBAL on a regular basis...Anyway, I think the 18z runs are a bit on the top end side...Im thinking around 2-4 in Baltimore myself with 3-6 in the burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 i would hesitate to throw numbers around yet. if the gfs evolution is right 2-4 is probably low as a top end even in dc. The big thing to me is that the NAM and GFS are both advertising less and less precip while we are warm. An ideal scenario would be to miss the first warm slug and then just catch the cold ULL stuff. I think some are still thinking heavy rain for hours and hours before snow and I am starting to think that idea is bunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 If the snow comes down as heavily as the GFS depicts, I don't think we'll waste more than a half hour on snow that melts on contact. It would have to be near perfect to snow like that, here is what I think is going against us. 1.No real good source of HP 2.Tomorrow will get up into the 40s which will hurt chances That 1-2 inches would be on grassy surfaces, shouldnt be a problem for the major cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Thank you. That's a point I tried to make in another thread, but everyone is too focused qpf output. i think the signature we're seeing now from several models at least is that it would probably be mod/hvy snow. rates overcome any ground warmth without much problem. i guess streets could be a bit better than had it been like 20 beforehand but it's usually about rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Colonel Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I dont beleive in the 6-12 inches backend, surface will probally get up to the mid to maybe upper 30s, no real high pressure wont let temps drop enough, any snow will be wet IMO, maybe an inch or two on the backend, rest is rain. this guy needs a red tag asap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Thanks! It's sure an interesting storm. If the rates are that heavy, precip should certainly be snowballs even with the marginal boundary layer temps. fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Please keep us updated That guy is really obsessed with surface temps. Yesterday he posted the surface temp map from the GGEM ensemble mean. I have never seen that product before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It would have to be near perfect to snow like that, here is what I think is going against us. 1.No real good source of HP 2.Tomorrow will get up into the 40s which will hurt chances That 1-2 inches would be on grassy surfaces, shouldnt be a problem for the major cities. Also, sun angle and time zone issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It would have to be near perfect to snow like that, here is what I think is going against us. 1.No real good source of HP 2.Tomorrow will get up into the 40s which will hurt chances That 1-2 inches would be on grassy surfaces, shouldnt be a problem for the major cities. We all know that, weenie. When snow comes down hard enough and melts on contact, the surface gets COOLER. And it keeps getting cooler and cooler until it's cold enough for snow to stick. Once that happens, it doesn't matter if the previous day was 70 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The big thing to me is that the NAM and GFS are both advertising less and less precip while we are warm. An ideal scenario would be to miss the first warm slug and then just catch the cold ULL stuff. I think some are still thinking heavy rain for hours and hours before snow and I am starting to think that idea is bunk. we'll see in the end but i think today has been a move toward the idea of 500 ruling over the surface depiction in any range. the euro could be steadfast in the initial warmth surge and maybe less snwo overall and the american models could be wrong, but it's hard not to like the look the last 48 hrs or so and obviously the idea before that when in more fantasy range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larryweather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 That guy is really obsessed with surface temps. Yesterday he posted the surface temp map from the GGEM ensemble mean. I have never seen that product before. Justin Berk is the best in the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The big thing to me is that the NAM and GFS are both advertising less and less precip while we are warm. An ideal scenario would be to miss the first warm slug and then just catch the cold ULL stuff. I think some are still thinking heavy rain for hours and hours before snow and I am starting to think that idea is bunk. Yes I agree it would be ideal . So what are we looking at for duration of frozen preciptation in our area if this GFS/NAM scenario plays out? It changes over sometime between 48-54 and is outta here by 60 basically. That would imply some impressive rates for a couple hours at least if the GFS qpf is close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Also, sun angle and time zone issues. Because the sun angle is better aligned with the apps this time of year we get a good bit of sun damming and that is a problem. I don't worry about the time zone stuff until daylight savings. That's when you see a serious uptick in temp because of the extra hour of daylight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It will make a difference in terms of accumulations based on whether this colder ULL comes in at night or not. GFS/NAM says in 54 hours from 18z, so Wednesday night? Hopefully the strengthening trend continues on the 2nd part of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cajuncook Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Things are getting very exciting now........for a while I thought I'd be screwed while my home gets a sizable storm, but I like that I 95 is starting to look much better. But of course there's still reason to be wary but I think I'll at least see something. Heck, I'd love to even see another Feb 2010 type event (Feb 2, that is). I'll eat my textbooks if we see a Feb 2010-esque event here. Accumulation after rain in an urban environment is never something that I would want to count on. But, you know, last year seemed to thread the needle every time, why not now? Who needs rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Common Weather Sense says that the ULL should come overnight for the best shot at snow, we have a shot, but we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/12zsnowf072.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Going on record... all snow immediately north and west of IAD. Book it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Marty Bass isnt a met, hes a wannabe..Bob Turk is he Cheif met there...Not really the place to discuss but if I have to rank Baltimore tv mets it would be 1. Tom T 2. Tony Pann. 3. Justin Berk. 4. John Collins. 5. Vytus Ried 6. Bob Turk then the others I pretty much only watch WBAL on a regular basis...Anyway, I think the 18z runs are a bit on the top end side...Im thinking around 2-4 in Baltimore myself with 3-6 in the burbs Marty Bass... Is he still on the air? It was funny when he got busted for propositioning an undercover cop that he thought was a hooker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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