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The Psuhoffman Storm


Ji

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Surprised they didn't mix based on maps.

they spend 12 hours right at freezing at the surface and 850 so...probably some mixing assuming there is a warm layer somewhere. Euro does tend to run a degree or two warm though so the 850 0 line tends to verify as the snow/mix line pretty well in my experience.

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im talking more southern half of nh into sw maine though they may mix for a bit given proximity to low i guess but that would be the sweetspot probably

Ian, to clarify (and not sure if you will see this), but...you mean they would be in the sweet spot for that particular run of the Euro, right? Because I have been on board with your general thoughts that there is nothing out there which screams one particular solution is correct this far out (which you re-iterated during the GFS discussion). But maybe you saw something in this run that changed that thought for the NE folks?

As for me, the various runs overnight confirm for me that this remains our best chance since the whiff on the 26th to see a snowfall of over two inches, which definitely keeps me interested at this point in this timeframe.

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I am pretty encouraged by this storm. I like the setup as it seems to be packed with a lot more southern stream moisture than what we have seen thus far from other storms. I am pretty confident that this will trend north given seasonal trends and therefore my main worry with this storm will be temperatures. Hopefully for once this year it trends in our favor.

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I'm a bit concerned with this phased storm scenario than the weaker GFS scenario. The phased storm is going to require us to thread the needle on track to ensure temperatures aren't an issue, and I'm not thrilled with our chances in that kind of setup. But, we could always pull it off.

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I'm a bit concerned with this phased storm scenario than the weaker GFS scenario. The phased storm is going to require us to thread the needle on track to ensure temperatures aren't an issue, and I'm not thrilled with our chances in that kind of setup. But, we could always pull it off.

Temps may be an issue. So be it. There is probably not the perfect set-up for an easy snow for us this year. That being the case, give me moisture and some cold air and see if we can't get a good bit of it to fall as snow.

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Temps may be an issue. So be it. There is probably not the perfect set-up for an easy snow for us this year. That being the case, give me moisture and some cold air and see if we can't get a good bit of it to fall as snow.

Well yeah at least it appears that there won't be a qpf hole this time, although there is plenty of time for one to develop.

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I'm a bit concerned with this phased storm scenario than the weaker GFS scenario. The phased storm is going to require us to thread the needle on track to ensure temperatures aren't an issue, and I'm not thrilled with our chances in that kind of setup. But, we could always pull it off.

Would you rather keep the snow-hole up? I'm ready to reshuffle the cards. If we get some temp issues who cares as long as that darn precip hole leaves.

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Would you rather keep the snow-hole up? I'm ready to reshuffle the cards. If we get some temp issues who cares as long as that darn precip hole leaves.

Agreed. Let's phase that mother up and get a big stemwinder going up the coast.

If we change to rain - so be it. At least it'll be a refreshing change. But one more Miller B/snowhole screwjob and I am gonna kill a kitten.

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Would you rather keep the snow-hole up? I'm ready to reshuffle the cards. If we get some temp issues who cares as long as that darn precip hole leaves.

I think we got our reshuffle with the ice storm. Filled in the precip hole fairly well. We are in a new pattern than what we have been seeing all winter, but we can get screwed in just about any type of pattern - so I'm not sure it really matters.

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Agreed. Let's phase that mother up and get a big stemwinder going up the coast.

If we change to rain - so be it. At least it'll be a refreshing change. But one more Miller B/snowhole screwjob and I am gonna kill a kitten.

I'm happy with any snow we get at this point, and I'm just being cautiously optimistic at this point. Too much of a phase and this thing could end up shooting up the apps leaving the coastal plain in rain, and that's something I could do without.

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Really?

Every time I have seen an obvious error it has looked like way MORE than would be reasonable. Eh, I could be wrong.

the 192 panel has been spitting out more than it should. just compare total qpf for the period to that panel and you can see it.

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