psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 philly gets screwed also, more then half rain there. Seems from the MOS that being west is better finally down this way. Once it bombs out up into New England it probably pulls the cold in closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 HFD: 1.98 all snow (but it gets really close to mixing for 12 hours) Surprised they didn't mix based on maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Surprised they didn't mix based on maps. they spend 12 hours right at freezing at the surface and 850 so...probably some mixing assuming there is a warm layer somewhere. Euro does tend to run a degree or two warm though so the 850 0 line tends to verify as the snow/mix line pretty well in my experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 NOGAP goes nuclear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 That would be a nice deluge of rain. Thought nogaps was progressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 That would be a nice deluge of rain. Thought nogaps was progressive! All snow in western MD. 10-15"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 6z gfs ... gives a light snow event that slides off the coast on the 25th.... .. leaves energy (alot of energy..) in the south west. Then finally moves it out.. and reaches the east coast by the 28th.... results in this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 im talking more southern half of nh into sw maine though they may mix for a bit given proximity to low i guess but that would be the sweetspot probably Ian, to clarify (and not sure if you will see this), but...you mean they would be in the sweet spot for that particular run of the Euro, right? Because I have been on board with your general thoughts that there is nothing out there which screams one particular solution is correct this far out (which you re-iterated during the GFS discussion). But maybe you saw something in this run that changed that thought for the NE folks? As for me, the various runs overnight confirm for me that this remains our best chance since the whiff on the 26th to see a snowfall of over two inches, which definitely keeps me interested at this point in this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Sounds like the Hoffman storm is off life support but still in critical condition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I am pretty encouraged by this storm. I like the setup as it seems to be packed with a lot more southern stream moisture than what we have seen thus far from other storms. I am pretty confident that this will trend north given seasonal trends and therefore my main worry with this storm will be temperatures. Hopefully for once this year it trends in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'm a bit concerned with this phased storm scenario than the weaker GFS scenario. The phased storm is going to require us to thread the needle on track to ensure temperatures aren't an issue, and I'm not thrilled with our chances in that kind of setup. But, we could always pull it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'm a bit concerned with this phased storm scenario than the weaker GFS scenario. The phased storm is going to require us to thread the needle on track to ensure temperatures aren't an issue, and I'm not thrilled with our chances in that kind of setup. But, we could always pull it off. Temps may be an issue. So be it. There is probably not the perfect set-up for an easy snow for us this year. That being the case, give me moisture and some cold air and see if we can't get a good bit of it to fall as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Temps may be an issue. So be it. There is probably not the perfect set-up for an easy snow for us this year. That being the case, give me moisture and some cold air and see if we can't get a good bit of it to fall as snow. Well yeah at least it appears that there won't be a qpf hole this time, although there is plenty of time for one to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Inudaw - keep in mind, that is the 192h panel, so the GFS bug with the precip totals is almost certainly making that look more impressive than it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'm a bit concerned with this phased storm scenario than the weaker GFS scenario. The phased storm is going to require us to thread the needle on track to ensure temperatures aren't an issue, and I'm not thrilled with our chances in that kind of setup. But, we could always pull it off. Would you rather keep the snow-hole up? I'm ready to reshuffle the cards. If we get some temp issues who cares as long as that darn precip hole leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 i wonder if GFS is keying on the wrong s/w or the Euro is. Both give us big storms but at different times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Would you rather keep the snow-hole up? I'm ready to reshuffle the cards. If we get some temp issues who cares as long as that darn precip hole leaves. Agreed. Let's phase that mother up and get a big stemwinder going up the coast. If we change to rain - so be it. At least it'll be a refreshing change. But one more Miller B/snowhole screwjob and I am gonna kill a kitten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Inudaw - keep in mind, that is the 192h panel, so the GFS bug with the precip totals is almost certainly making that look more impressive than it is. no i think the problem is it does not add in 12 hours of worth precip so what you see is lees than what it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 no i think the problem is it does not add in 12 hours of worth precip so what you see is lees than what it is Really? Every time I have seen an obvious error it has looked like way MORE than would be reasonable. Eh, I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Would you rather keep the snow-hole up? I'm ready to reshuffle the cards. If we get some temp issues who cares as long as that darn precip hole leaves. I think we got our reshuffle with the ice storm. Filled in the precip hole fairly well. We are in a new pattern than what we have been seeing all winter, but we can get screwed in just about any type of pattern - so I'm not sure it really matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Agreed. Let's phase that mother up and get a big stemwinder going up the coast. If we change to rain - so be it. At least it'll be a refreshing change. But one more Miller B/snowhole screwjob and I am gonna kill a kitten. I'm happy with any snow we get at this point, and I'm just being cautiously optimistic at this point. Too much of a phase and this thing could end up shooting up the apps leaving the coastal plain in rain, and that's something I could do without. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Really? Every time I have seen an obvious error it has looked like way MORE than would be reasonable. Eh, I could be wrong. the 192 panel has been spitting out more than it should. just compare total qpf for the period to that panel and you can see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Really? Every time I have seen an obvious error it has looked like way MORE than would be reasonable. Eh, I could be wrong. It's hour 192.. Model QPF is worthless at 48 hours, let alone 8 days out. It's probably more accurate with the error Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 So...opinions on the gfs so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 So...opinions on the gfs so far? the ncep buginess is driving me batty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GFS is deemphasizing this first wave that's near the MS River at 90hr relative to 6z and definitely 0z. Keeping more energy back over the Rockies. Closed 500mb contour even there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 looks like it's pretty sold on keeping energy in the sw for a storm later in the period. we need to name that d8 bad boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 1016 low off of nc coast lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Just a weak wave and insanely cold. Holds the energy for the Hoffman storm back a few days. The GFS is sticking to its guns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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