Ellinwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think the NAM may do better with the temperature profile in this case since it is a mesoscale model which would help it better pick up on the dynamical cooling than the global models. That's my opinion at least. This... I would trust the general setup of the temps on the NAM at this point (though I wouldn't take the exact values verbatim). Side note: 48 pages in 25 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This... I would trust the general setup of the temps on the NAM at this point (though I wouldn't take the exact values verbatim). Side note: 48 pages in 25 hours just wait till the heavy snow is falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 If DCA ends up with 4 or more inches of snow, we should name something permanetly after PSUHoffman. The American weather forums The PSUHoffman Forums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Dang. NBC chuck bell bullish for a rainstorm...his futurecast showed heavy rain all the way back into wva on wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This is an intersting snippet regarding the modeling of this system from the NWS NYC's afternoon AFD........... "NOTE THAT NOAA WINTER RECONNAISSANCE IS BEING FLOWN FOR THIS SYSTEM IN THE GULF OVERNIGHT. THESE CRITICAL OBSERVATIONS WILL GET INCLUDED INTO TOMORROW'S 12Z AND SUBSEQUENT MODEL CYCLES. THUS EXPECT THINGS TO BECOME CLEARER TOMORROW." I was not aware they flew recons into winter storms Not so sure of that. Here's today's plan of the day (from yesterday): 000 NOUS42 KNHC 231730 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1230 PM EST SUN 23 JANUARY 2011 SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JANUARY 2011 WSPOD NUMBER.....10-054 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 -- A. A66/ 28.2N 91.5W (DROP 10)/ 25/1200Z B. AFXXX 12WSA TRACK66 C. 25/0645Z D. 10 DROPS AS SHOWN ON TRACK E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 25/1400Z 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A. A64/ 30.3N 75.0W (DROP 10)/ 26/0000Z B. A64/ 30.3N 75.0W (DROP 10)/ 26/1200Z II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA49-- A. P73/ 43.9N 172.3E (DROP 11)/ 25/1200Z B. NOAA9 10WSW TRACK73 C. 25/0800Z D. 20 DROPS AS SHOWN ON TRACK E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 25/1800Z 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE. WVW Here's today's plan for tomorrow: NOUS42 KNHC 241800 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0100 PM EST MON 24 JANUARY 2011 SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z JANUARY 2011 WSPOD NUMBER.....10-055 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 A. A62/ 30.4N 78.9W (TORRY)/ 26/1200Z B. AFXXX 13WSA TRACK62 C. 26/0415Z D. 10 DROPS AS PUBLISHED E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 26/1400Z 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A. A61/ 35.4N 75.1W (TOMMZ)/ 27/0000Z B. A61/ 35.4N 75.1W (TOMMZ)/ 27/1200Z II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE. JWP Maybe I'm missing it, but I don't see a plan for drop's today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think the "west" trend on the NAM is done, but I do think it will trend north a bit more. Models are all converging on a solution pretty close to the 12z Euro/UKMET solution. The ensembles have been pretty close to that solution for days now and have handled this consistently and well overall. The good news is that the euro has been running warm lately so the track and precip of the euro with a 1.5 degree adjustment downward gives a really nice result. I actually agree with this-- Its why I'm hyped. The NAM is closely matching the EC-- and the EC has been on this for a couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I love where the NAM has the heavy precip stripe. It was always south of me last winter and then came north in the last 48 hours. It then verified even north of that at game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Dang. NBC chuck bell bullish for a rainstorm...his futurecast showed heavy rain all the way back into wva on wed. This is the sort of storm where the TV heads will suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Dang. NBC chuck bell bullish for a rainstorm...his futurecast showed heavy rain all the way back into wva on wed. Yeah I saw that too. A bit premature on "no accumulation for DC". If the NAM verifies(or is even cut in half), he is going to really bust bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Not so sure of that. Here's today's plan of the day (from yesterday): Wouldn't it make sense to drop some in the 4 corners to see about that rouge SW that is trying to flatten the ridge?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GFS closes off early and far south 36 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This is the sort of storm where the TV heads will suck. being under the tutelage of Bob Ryan didn't help him either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This is the sort of storm where the TV heads will suck. given how this season has gone it's hard not to go against snow even with the favorable look holding on pretty much everything. temps are an issue, yeah. i dont know how to resolve that. hopefully we get signs soon. i would lean colder than they are showing myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I love where the NAM has the heavy precip stripe. It was always south of me last winter and then came north in the last 48 hours. It then verified even north of that at game time. My thoughts exactly....here's to hoping some of last years luck will find its way back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yeah I saw that too. A bit premature on "no accumulation for DC". If the NAM verifies(or is even cut in half), he is going to really bust bad. Every model gives DC snow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Someone writing comments on the CWG blog site pretended to be me. I like the 500h track but am not ready to start putting out amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GFS closes off early and far south 36 hrs ???? if anything, it's weaker, strung out, at at the same latitude at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Someone writing comments on the CWG blog site pretended to be me. I like the 500h track but am not ready to start putting out amounts. don't you wish you were working FT again so you HAD to deal with these internet nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Dang. NBC chuck bell bullish for a rainstorm...his futurecast showed heavy rain all the way back into wva on wed. What's the dang? He's looking at the same information we are- but probably didn't have time to check the latest runs as we do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 back end alert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 What's the dang? He's looking at the same information we are- but probably didn't have time to check the latest runs as we do... What else is he doing? Isn't his job to check the latest runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Not to be overly critical of an on-air met, but Chuck Bell did a very, very poor job last year. On two seperate occassions, he kept saying all morning long that the snow would be ending around noon during both the Feb. 6 and Feb. 10 storms. On both occassions, the snow lasted well into the late afternoon and beyond with multiple inches of additional accumulations. He was literally up there talking and pointing to the dryness on the radar over West Virginia and used that justify his forecat of a storm that was "winding down." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Wouldn't it make sense to drop some in the 4 corners to see about that rouge SW that is trying to flatten the ridge?? I honestly don't know. I'd think given limited budget they might wait until the storm is within 24 - 36hr. I can see value in Pacific drops, day 4 - 7 events, I don't see value in CONUS drops as it's fairly well sampled. The GOM makes some sense...but, again, I'd think it'd make more sense to sample tomorrow rather than tonight. Someone writing comments on the CWG blog site pretended to be me. I like the 500h track but am not ready to start putting out amounts. So how much for 39.06 -77.55? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 If DCA ends up with 4 or more inches of snow, we should name something permanetly after PSUHoffman. I don't know about 4" at DCA, they run so warm and low on snowfall that if they get 4" the rest of DC metro would probably average 7". Possible but right now I might not be that bullish.... I was planning on making some real predictions tonight after the 0z runs but right now if I had to give an over under for some select locations DCA: 2.5 IAD: 4.5 BWI: 3.5 JYO: 5.5 HGR: 8 Winchester: 8 FDK: 7 Phin: 5.5 Mt. Hoffman: 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GFS and NAM have really started advertising less and less from the main coastal storm and a bigger event from the ULL. That is good news for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Pounded at 54, but still too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 What else is he doing? Isn't his nob to check the latest runs? Getting ready for the on-air segment? If he calls for rain and it snows, people aren't too pissed (worst is "wow- what a surprise- they weren't even calling for this!". If he calls for snow and it rains, people remember ("they were totally wrong on this one....wtf what shall I do with these 292 rolls of toilet paper and nineteen gallons of milk I bought for the 4 inches of snow on the way?!?"). Just my opinion... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
33andrain Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Hour 54 is easy on the eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Hour 54 is easy on the eyes If your name comes true for us on Wednesday I am gonna come looking for you Mr. 33andrain ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Wow on the ULL at 54 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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