Ji Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 this is crazy? Better trends as we get closer to the event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This NAM run rocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 not quite sure what you mean because I've been working hard today, trying to catch up on the last wasted month but I'm thinking that climo kicks in and that closed Low comes further north bringing the snow from the u/l Low to us or even further north im saying the euro is further north with the 500 low. it's basically ideal now so if it trended north we might not be as happy as if the nam trended north. i think without an uber block there is not much reason to think it won't want to shift north slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This NAM run rocks. It does... this would be pretty much all heavy wet snow. 54 h7 omega is silly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Man, that's looks great--- I'd like to see that explosive development a little more to my SW. Nice to see the NAM cooler and with a MEGA deformation zone. if we compare to the March 09== the ULL did drift north. 2 days out they models had the best lift down towards Greensboro and Winston Salem and they got 2-4 inches in reality while I got 10.5. If that second SW over the southwest isn't as strong, the ULL will trend more north-- and that's what what the NAM is finally showing. (Digs as deep, just moves NE rather than ENE.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 NAM certainly is the coldest model here and I'd have trouble getting too excited over it...but if the GFS comes in as cold then it might be time to celebrate What is ironic is I always thought the NAM had a warm bias? I guess this year the Euro is the one with that label but I always thought the NAM tended to be too wet and too warm but I guess its highly variable on the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 problem is the nam is further south than the euro at least I would hedge against CHO and RIC getting the snow bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Huff, whats your elevation and what is the verical rise from 75 miles to your east? Very, very cool tool: http://www.heywhatsthat.com/profiler.html Click your two (or more) points on the map and click "draw profile" over on the right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 im saying the euro is further north with the 500 low. it's basically ideal now so if it trended north we might not be as happy as if the nam trended north. i think without an uber block there is not much reason to think it won't want to shift north slightly. I agree-- but a NE motion is good depending where it starts from the south-- if we accept it digs as modeled through 24 hours, we should be in good shape. That SW over the 4 corners flattens the troff a little-- but if its not as impressive or washes out, it allows the sharpt nature and it turns NE. Closed 500 low moving from E GA to Off the Delaware BAY rocks for us all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 hr 54 0c at ric this is what falls afterwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 where is this cold air coming from? I don't see a high or a 50/50. tapped cold air to the north brough in by the storm? It's from the strong lifting and cold pool with the upper center and a track that provides northrely flow ehind the surface low which helps pulls what cold air is present over PA back south towards us. It's pretty consistent with itself but that doesn't mean it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 hr 54 0c at ric this is what falls afterwards Wow verbatim that would be a 5+ inch snowfall from DC south through Central VA. Seems too good to be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timstobrazil Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It's from the strong lifting and cold pool with the upper center and a track that provides northrely flow ehind the surface low which helps pulls what cold air is present over PA back south towards us. It's pretty consistent with itself but that doesn't mean it's right. Thanks Wes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 NAM certainly is the coldest model here and I'd have trouble getting too excited over it...but if the GFS comes in as cold then it might be time to celebrate 18z GFS will be Epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I would hedge against CHO and RIC getting the snow bullseye. most yrs yeah. this is our coldest and snowiest time of the yr climowise. i think if at the beginning of the season someone said, here take these 500 maps in late Jan/early Feb and see what you can do, i'd take them up on it. -nao wants to filter cold air in even without a big surface high.. pressures are not super low to the north at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I would hedge against CHO and RIC getting the snow bullseye. It's not really fair to compare CHO to RIC-- they are worlds apart. Draw a line 70 miles SE of DCA and compare and add 3k mt rangs to your immediate west (20 miles to the Blue Ridge_ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caps1980 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Is there any time frame yet for the onset of the storm,for the central MD area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Wow, NWS went the complete other direction on the forecast.. Little to no accumulation. Surprised they did that at this point. Man, that's looks great--- I'd like to see that explosive development a little more to my SW. Nice to see the NAM cooler and with a MEGA deformation zone. if we compare to the March 09== the ULL did drift north. 2 days out they models had the best lift down towards Greensboro and Winston Salem and they got 2-4 inches in reality while I got 10.5. If that second SW over the southwest isn't as strong, the ULL will trend more north-- and that's what what the NAM is finally showing. (Digs as deep, just moves NE rather than ENE.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 hr 54 0c at ric this is what falls afterwards Wow man, that's real nice. I'm just hesitate to bite on that because its the NAM. That's all ULL stuff, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Is there any time frame yet for the onset of the storm,for the central MD area? Early Wednesday morning (Tuesday night for some ) through early Thursday. Northernmost areas may have to wait until late morning Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 18z GFS will be Epic There ya go! Epically telling IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 There ya go! Epically telling IMO He didn't say "mark my words" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPete Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 You and I will both see the blue line in the sky. It will be over my house and slightly off the SE at your place. I don't know what that means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Wow man, that's real nice. I'm just hesitate to bite on that because its the NAM. That's all ULL stuff, right? That is the PV max progressing through. Legitimate stuff--although the qpf values are a bit extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 That is the PV max progressing through. Legitimate stuff--although the qpf values are a bit extreme. Overall? Or that its centered that far south? I would think it would edge north a lil bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Wow, NWS went the complete other direction on the forecast.. Little to no accumulation. Surprised they did that at this point. Office AFD did say 4-6 with less east. I'm not sure if they get the EC eval done before releasing those. If the models are similiar at 0z-- i expect watches hoisted, at least for the NRV> These 500 low events are tricky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Wow man, that's real nice. I'm just hesitate to bite on that because its the NAM. That's all ULL stuff, right? i think someone on either side of this line is going to get a huge surprise based of what several models are showing, and adjusted for the north trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Wow, NWS went the complete other direction on the forecast.. Little to no accumulation. Surprised they did that at this point. Yeah according to my guestimation they've pridicted 12-24 inches of snow within 36 hrs of an event at one time or the other for me (annapolis) this winter. I've gotten 3. I kind of like them going in the other direction as things seem to be trending towards a snowier solution. It's usually the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 QPF is extreme-- but its not far off from the ECWMF-- which has some lighter rains and then blasts the 500 low through with many of these same locations getting 1 inch in >12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Overall? Or that its centered that far south? I would think it would edge north a lil bit Just the extreme qpf values. Typical NAM overdoing the widespread nature of extreme qpf--probably trying to model some convective stuff in there. A realistic threat over small areas--but not over that widespread of an area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.