yoda Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 hr 54 0c in bristol to winchester lyh to ezf +4 hr 60 0c lyh due north to winchester ric dc +4 hr 66 0c va beach to just east of bwi 0.50" ric to dc somewhere in this it should go over to snow hr 72 0c sucks back north to near ric to va beach another 0.10+ for ric to dc This sounds like the POTENTIAL for QPF of .25"+ of wet snow for the I-95 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 pretty much how it has been.. 850s back to about the blue ridge.. trixie stays below 0c at 850 the whole time, but sw of there warms for a period. other than temps this run is about exactly what we want. I will probably get tagged a weenie for this statement but the thermal profiles have sucked on the euro this year for just about every event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I will probably get tagged a weenie for this statement but the thermal profiles have sucked on the euro this year for just about every event. Been thinking that the entire duration of tracking this storm. It's helped me sleep at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Do you know what the surface and 850 temps are? If some of that is snow plus that 0.25"+ at 72hrs...this is sounding pretty good. warmest is about hr 60 with the low on the nc/va border tho 850 already crashing east thru central va at that pt, but still backed to about hgr thru central loudoun then due south. most places have seen about .5" or so thru then. after that 850 crashes east across the area as the ull passes. it happens during the next panel so i can't say all the .5" is frozen or even trying to be frozen. the next panel should be all frozen tho who knows if surface temps are right. surface temps still suck verbatim.. 32 f still northwest of the cities when it's ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 QPF nears 2 inches on this one... too bad 75% of it is rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This sounds like the POTENTIAL for QPF of .25"+ of wet snow for the I-95 corridor Per Ian's comments, .5"+ at 66hrs with borderline conditions for I-95 plus .25" at 72hrs. If ~half of that 66hr precip is snow, that could be WSW criteria for I-95. Yes...that was a very weenieesque thing to do, but I want some snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I will probably get tagged a weenie for this statement but the thermal profiles have sucked on the euro this year for just about every event. Nah, the statement is true. Most of us like the Euro solution with that knowledge lingering in the back of the mind. Odds are more snow and further SE than what the Euro shows verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timstobrazil Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 when is the last time they even got a sunny day forecast correct? pretty sure they nailed every threat of snow this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Per Ian's comments, .5"+ at 66hrs with borderline conditions for I-95 plus .25" at 72hrs. If ~half of that 66hr precip is snow, that could be WSW criteria for I-95. Yes...that was a very weenieesque thing to do, but I want some snow! Strongly agree.. but will wet snow accumulate at 33-35 degrees? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 thanks...but where does the 1" line go to the northeast of HGR? if you draw a line from hgr to the northwest tip of nj everyone southeast of that is 1"+.. it is still pretty sharp to the north tho.. go about 100 miles into PA and you're in the .25" contour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 another ~.25 from dc to balt on 72.. surface still above freezing but that's snow I think all the models give us sloppy snow on the back end with the upper center. That makes sense looking at the strength of the 500l low and it's track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 surface temps still suck verbatim.. 32 f still northwest of the cities when it's ending. If the surface is 33-34F and the column is below freezing or well below freezing much above the surface, that should be snow. If the above freezing temps extend up to 950-925mb (and are more than just fractionally above freezing), that's when we get into trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Per Ian's comments, .5"+ at 66hrs with borderline conditions for I-95 plus .25" at 72hrs. If ~half of that 66hr precip is snow, that could be WSW criteria for I-95. Yes...that was a very weenieesque thing to do, but I want some snow! Was thinking the same thing. that's .5 as frozen. And if the Euro thermals perform as they have been this season, maybe more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I will probably get tagged a weenie for this statement but the thermal profiles have sucked on the euro this year for just about every event. Not at all, I showed two graphics (yesterday, I think) showing a pretty substantial low level warm bias on the Euro for the past month. I'm too lazy to dig it up..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Sounds like the Euro is evolving to a best-case scenario assuming it is a degree or three too warm at the surface, which is not crazy to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think all the models give us sloppy snow on the back end with the upper center. That makes sense looking at the strength of the 500l low and it's track. i dont often believe in backend but every model with a good 500 track has shown it for a few days now so i guess it's legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Strongly agree.. but will wet snow accumulate at 33-35 degrees? Definitely. Not much on the roads, but certainly on the grass and other surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Not at all, I showed two graphics (yesterday, I think) showing a pretty substantial low level warm bias on the Euro for the past month. I'm too lazy to dig it up..... Its on the first page of this entire thread I moved it in there so it wouldn't get lost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 If the surface is 33-34F and the column is below freezing or well below freezing much above the surface, that should be snow. If the above freezing temps extend up to 950-925mb (and are more than just fractionally above freezing), that's when we get into trouble. surface is "warm" but not torching. the 40F contour never gets far from southeast va. i'd guess we're mostly in the mid 30s or so in DC. so snow on the backend should not be impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 surface is "warm" but not torching. the 40F contour never gets far from southeast va. i'd guess we're mostly in the mid 30s or so in DC. so snow on the backend should not be impossible. So you say we have a chance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 i dont often believe in backend but every model with a good 500 track has shown it for a few days now so i guess it's legit. The 1" of snow we got in the storm before the ice event was from the H5 low passing north of us, correct? That was a decent snow, and we were on the southern extreme of that. Edited to add: By decent, I mean it was somewhat exciting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Sounds like the Euro is evolving to a best-case scenario assuming it is a degree or three too warm at the surface, which is not crazy to believe. For 2 days out and almost complete model concensus things look pretty good when considering the season so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 So you say we have a chance... i'd almost say im bullish at this pt but i dont want to go out on any limbs yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 What would be the optimal scenario to keep the temps down a few degrees more and get this all/mostly frozen for the cities? Or is that just a DOA wish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The 1" of snow we got in the storm before the ice event was from the H5 low passing north of us, correct? That was a decent snow, and we were on the southern extreme of that. Edited to add: By decent, I mean it was somewhat exciting i think that was mainly warm air advection so it's not really comparable to this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 i'd almost say im bullish at this pt but i dont want to go out on any limbs yet Please don't they will snap with all the heavy wet snow coming and you will die and then who will do EURO PBP for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 i'd almost say im bullish at this pt but i dont want to go out on any limbs yet O RLY? Bullish in what fashion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 surface is "warm" but not torching. the 40F contour never gets far from southeast va. i'd guess we're mostly in the mid 30s or so in DC. so snow on the backend should not be impossible. Sounds like pretty good agreement between the GFS and the Euro, with perhaps the Euro even a bit better for snow around here. Again I think that someone with an extra 250' of elevation or another 10mi outside the built up surburban/urban corridor could get a really nice storm with this and the rest of us get (hopefully) a solidly high WWA type snow. For everyone keeping track...the weenie handbook rules you need to be invoking: 1. Euro low-level warm temp bias 2. Dynamical cooling of the low levels 3. Heavy precip "dragging" cold air to the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Strongly agree.. but will wet snow accumulate at 33-35 degrees? Elevation will be key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Sounds like pretty good agreement between the GFS and the Euro, with perhaps the Euro even a bit better for snow around here. Again I think that someone with an extra 250' of elevation or another 10mi outside the built up surburban/urban corridor could get a really nice storm with this and the rest of us get (hopefully) a solidly high WWA type snow. For everyone keeping track...the weenie handbook rules you need to be invoking: 1. Euro low-level warm temp bias 2. Dynamical cooling of the low levels 3. Heavy precip "dragging" cold air to the surface You should write a weenie handbook, i would be first in line to buy one . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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