Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think for us the best we can do is a period of sloppy snow towards the end of the event as the upper low comes by. It's going to be hard for places inside the beltway to end up as mostly snow. yeah it is tho i want to be stubborn and say we're kinda close to getting better temps in so who knows. i was looking for marginal setups in KU last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
budice2002 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 How about the Haymarket/Gainesville area, would it be more rain then snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 That looks very rainy on the Ukie. You'd need quite a big jump east to get a snowier solution for the cities. Low pressure over the southern Chesapeake Bay = naso good for snow with no big high to keep us cold. When I saw the track I thought the same thing. We might get snow at the tail end with the upper low but the basic track of the surface low is a little west of what we'd like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 loving the 06z and 12z runs... makes my map not-so-far-fetched now Looks like I'll have to up the totals over the mountains! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 i cant even look at these 500 tracks anymore. it's really depressing that it would not be snow here till the end. Canada is loling at us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 loving the 06z and 12z runs... makes my map not-so-far-fetched now Looks like I'll have to up the totals over the mountains! 1/1/1971 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Canada is loling at us this yr is loling at dc. soon the cycle will be complete where everyone within like 40 miles every direction has way more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 yeah it is tho i want to be stubborn and say we're kinda close to getting better temps in so who knows. i was looking for marginal setups in KU last night. I've been surprised before by the intensity of the precipitation with the upper low and can remember getting about 4 inches on a new years eve back in the mid 70s with no surface cold air to start with. We had a nice rain and then an hour or two of s plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 loving the 06z and 12z runs... makes my map not-so-far-fetched now Looks like I'll have to up the totals over the mountains! I'm holding you to 4 to 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looks like a I-81 Special to me...Roanoke to Hagerstown...enjoy 6+ inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Well I will take my chances with this setup. I think its close to a guarantee that DC will mix, but with the cold air that we have been having, we can hope that some will stay in place. Would love to be Gaithersburg west right now; I think you guys will be all snow with the GFS track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 looks like SLP would capture the h5 low just after 60 hrs on the UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 fwiw, and it's imby, but the soundings for me have gradually been improving so I assume that extrapolated out it would mean better for DC too. i'd still not be overly confident that if the gfs track was right that we'd be as warm as it shows, but maybe im wishcasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yeah, we usually do pretty well here in Towson for events like this - but I am more pessimistic with this one. Barring a temp/track shift in the next 36 hours, I'd think we're looking at slop here at best - with maybe a token burst as the ULL swings through. After all this cold, rain would just really put a cherry on the sucky sundae of this winter so far - hehe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I've been surprised before by the intensity of the precipitation with the upper low and can remember getting about 4 inches on a new years eve back in the mid 70s with no surface cold air to start with. We had a nice rain and then an hour or two of s plus. i dont usually believe in backend snow but this signal is pretty strong at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 i'd still not be overly confident that if the gfs track was right that we'd be as warm as it shows, but maybe im wishcasting It's painful that we're 48-60hrs out from this storm with the coldest air of the year over us and we're talking about rain with a beautiful 500 and surface track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 how come the american models wont give us qpf while the global models all give us over an inch. Why wont it fooking precip here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Something that I've been thinking about this morning... It seems like we've been tracking this storm for so long and we've literally seen about every solution on the table from a inland runner, to an OTS solution, to a strong coastal, back to an inland runner, and now a coastal again. We've still got 2 or so days before this possible changover (atm) may happen. That's still a long time. I've had to remind myself yesterday and today that this still can change for the better or the worse in the next 24-36 hrs. There is still the chance that it's a mostly rain event from I81 east, but it would seem that there is a trend to a slightly colder solution in recent model runs. I've been saying for the last three days that there is still time for this to trend to all snow or even rain and I still believe that's the case. Whatever happens it would seem that the models will continue to converge on a solution...but like I said there's still 2 days. I wouldn be suprised if the models continued to trend colder...but then again who am I? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It's painful that we're 48-60hrs out from this storm with the coldest air of the year over us and we're talking about rain with a beautiful 500 and surface track yeah it's kind of evil. im in full out hope for explosive development/convective banding/create its own cold air mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 how come the american models wont give us qpf while the global models all give us over an inch. Why wont it fooking precip here? Ji...if we get anything but rain here in Leesburg I would be shocked and will never post again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looking OK for us out this way (best shot of the season so far, since previous events have been well to our east). Still, would like to see this thing trend more east, so that we go all snow, and everyone around DC can also get a good period of snow out of this as well. However, even out my way, worried about it staying rain for awhile. Fingers crossed for everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 1/1/1971 Take it and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Ji...if we get anything but rain here in Leesburg I would be shocked and will never post again. reverse psychology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Ji...if we get anything but rain here in Leesburg I would be shocked and will never post again. you gotta stop setting yourself up for easy failure. you'll get snow with little doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I don't remember the exact setup, but there was a storm on Dec 5, 2003 that was a "thread the needle" event for N&W of the cities. I got on the MARC train in Germantown that morning with 6-7 inches of snow on the ground and still snowing, and watched the snow quickly dwindle with each stop until I got off at Union Station to WET ground! That was one storm where being N&W really mattered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Per GFS, disturbances going through the lakes keep the snow going through hr 168 over here. Nice storm brewing in the Gulf!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 yeah it's kind of evil. im in full out hope for explosive development/convective banding/create its own cold air mode. Gotta love that GFS keeps a northerly component to the surface winds the entire time. If that's correct, and surface winds remain northerly the entire time we may catch a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I don't remember the exact setup, but there was a storm on Dec 5, 2003 that was a "thread the needle" event for N&W of the cities. I got on the MARC train in Germantown that morning with 6-7 inches of snow on the ground and still snowing, and watched the snow quickly dwindle with each stop until I got off at Union Station to WET ground! That was one storm where being N&W really mattered. You don't have to go all the way back to 2003-- last December 5 was an elevation dependent event as well. A dusting around DCA, an inch or two inside the city, up to 7" in NW Montgomery County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 yeah it's kind of evil. im in full out hope for explosive development/convective banding/create its own cold air mode. Ian has finally been broken and gone Ji...if we get anything but rain here in Leesburg I would be shocked and will never post again. So...you'd be shocked if you ever post here again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Gotta love that GFS keeps a northerly component to the surface winds the entire time. If that's correct, and surface winds remain northerly the entire time we may catch a surprise. i still like my chances for now even if the odds are weighted rainy. in a marginal situation you're not going to know the specifics till near the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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