NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looks like DCA/BWI dont get above 35 degrees. The max is like a degree or two cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The idea of that "second" precip max west of the storm may not be far fetched like I thought. Here's the RGEM at 48 hours That second batch thing started showing up yesterday morning on the srefs and has gotten more and more members around to that ever since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 For the first time in a long time, I think the trend is our friend. May end up completely wrong, but I'm starting to feel decent about this. For the NVa, Md crew, its been rough so far, but we might be looking better. You should do pretty well out there. WSW for you by 3pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The models are catching on to the idea of a weak high over the northeast. Maybe just enough to keep the surface temps down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Am i wrong to say that with temps between 33-37 degress for the metro areas during the first part of this storm it has a decent chance of being a rain/snow mix depending on how heavy precip is falling before changing to all snow west to east with dropping temps? It's looking like this more and more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This is the kind of scenario where you'd want any bit of elevation and distance from the cities you can get. Someone in (for example) Mt Airy might see 6" where someone in Dundalk might only get flurries at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Any kind of high, even a weak one, would be huge given how cold our current airmass is. Wouldn't take a lot to hold some of the cold in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The idea of that "second" precip max west of the storm may not be far fetched like I thought. Here's the RGEM at 48 hours if the ull is as progged it should be there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Anyone got an opinion on Howard County? Pretty much and adjacent western suburb of Bmore... I've wlays wondered whether to classify myself as a "western suburb" of the 95 corridor but we always seem to get significantly more snow and a couple degree colder temps than the cities. I feel like the latest trends look pretty decent for my area and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Am i wrong to say that with temps between 33-37 degress for the metro areas during the first part of this storm it has a decent chance of being a rain/snow mix depending on how heavy precip is falling before changing to all snow west to east with dropping temps? It's looking like this more and more. If we can keep 850mb temps low enough we might, but thats a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This is the kind of scenario where you'd want any bit of elevation and distance from the cities you can get. Someone in (for example) Mt Airy might see 6" where someone in Dundalk might only get flurries at the end. Wow that makes me feel better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 That second batch thing started showing up yesterday morning on the srefs and has gotten more and more members around to that ever since. it's been showing here and there for a while depending on the strength of the 500 low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 and that High pressure keep slooking more prominent sliding from the Northwest in every run. Hopefully we can keep speeding that up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This is the kind of scenario where you'd want any bit of elevation and distance from the cities you can get. Someone in (for example) Mt Airy might see 6" where someone in Dundalk might only get flurries at the end. So each mile counts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Tough forecast at this point...But I think all those t.v mets saying "rain" and "more rain" are going to have to do a bit hedging. Frankly, I don't see how anyone can put out an accurate forecast at this point for the Interstate 95 corridor other than, "probably rain to some snow" but don't be shocked if DC also sees its biggest snowfall of the season. (which isn't saying much) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 ukmet loop....a solution just to east of this would be great for the cities I think... http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/model?MODEL=ukmet&TIME=2011012412®ION=USLCC&FCST=all&LEVEL=0&F1=tmpc&C1=hght&C2=tmpc&VEC=none&F2=p06i Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This is looking more like that classic I-95 battle zone... S MD is rain and will mix late to snow... but west of the I-95 area (more like Blue Ridge) could stay all snow.. but in between... FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 and that High pressure keep slooking more prominent sliding from the Northwest in every run. Hopefully we can keep speeding that up... not sure about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Anyone got an opinion on Howard County? Pretty much and adjacent western suburb of Bmore... I've wlays wondered whether to classify myself as a "western suburb" of the 95 corridor but we always seem to get significantly more snow and a couple degree colder temps than the cities. I feel like the latest trends look pretty decent for my area and west. Conditions across the county can vary greatly with a system like this. Western portions of the county have elevation advantages. E-ern portions may have slightly more Ches Bay influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Anyone got an opinion on Howard County? Pretty much and adjacent western suburb of Bmore... I've wlays wondered whether to classify myself as a "western suburb" of the 95 corridor but we always seem to get significantly more snow and a couple degree colder temps than the cities. I feel like the latest trends look pretty decent for my area and west. I'm only a couple miles north of I-95 in the eastern part of the county. Going to be hard to stay all snow there I think (unless things change significantly), but I do think I'll see accumulating snow at the end. If I was out west of Clarksville toward the higher elevation toward Mt Airy, I'd be getting excited that I just might stay all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Anyone got an opinion on Howard County? Pretty much and adjacent western suburb of Bmore... I've wlays wondered whether to classify myself as a "western suburb" of the 95 corridor but we always seem to get significantly more snow and a couple degree colder temps than the cities. I feel like the latest trends look pretty decent for my area and west. Howard County is a very wide place. As you should know if you live there, the weather in the eastern part along 95 can be far different than the western part where all those million dollar mansions are. Columbia is sort of the dividing line between the two mini climates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 12Z UKMET isnt too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 ukmet loop....a solution just to east of this would be great for the cities I think... http://weather.uwyo....EC=none&F2=p06i That looks very rainy on the Ukie. You'd need quite a big jump east to get a snowier solution for the cities. Low pressure over the southern Chesapeake Bay = naso good for snow with no big high to keep us cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodbineWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 hey guys Ide figure Ide join in on the discussions after been lurking for a few months now... that being said i think this is our best shot all winter and i will be holding hope until i see it raining here -Carl, Mt Airy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 for 4" of snow? WWA at best I think. we'll see.. the precip pattern is still kinda funky. someone nw of dc should get at least a mini thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 i cant even look at these 500 tracks anymore. it's really depressing that it would not be snow here till the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 not sure about that I think for us the best we can do is a period of sloppy snow towards the end of the event as the upper low comes by. It's going to be hard for places inside the beltway to end up as mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 48 hr UKMET - 0 850 line is blue ridge and down to prob 25 miles NW of CHO and then heads NW... East and SE of there is 0 to +2... +2-+3 in S MD... 60 hr UKMET -- 0 850 line is straddling I-95.. perhaps like 5 miles east of that (yes I blew it up)... Blue Ridge west is -2c 850 (includes CHO/MRB/Shenendoah Valley) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 for 4" of snow? WWA at best I think. You'll do a little better than that I think. You'll have the temp advantage, but less QPF. All in all, I'd rather be back in HGR for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Tough forecast at this point...But I think all those t.v mets saying "rain" and "more rain" are going to have to do a bit hedging. Frankly, I don't see how anyone can put out an accurate forecast at this point for the Interstate 95 corridor other than, "probably rain to some snow" but don't be shocked if DC also sees its biggest snowfall of the season. (which isn't saying much) For DC I think a simple "rain and rain snow mix" is still the best way to go at this time. More snow to the NW obvi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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