Swiscaster Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Sort of interesting the NAM continues to cool and the GFS continues to warm. The NAM was originally warmer, but now the GFS is and the gap grew at 06Z. That is probably not a good thing since the Euro has been warm for several runs now. GFS and Euro together at this range is a good combo. Didn't the NAM first correctly see the strength of the cold air during the recent ice storm? Different setup I know, but maybe the NAM's "expertise" in the short term "sees" it better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 is that for this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolineWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Most of that is rain, we get about .10 to .25 of snow on the backside if you take 9 SREF Literary... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yeah, SREFs are super warm, even at 850. They've jumped around last few runs, though. They also sucked hard on the December 26th event so I no longer trust them. Borderline...very borderline. I viewed the SREF 850 as an animation (try it!) and 63 hrs. is the warmest portion of the storm. The 0 deg. line bisects Harford County, Baltimore County and N. Howard County. DC changes over for sure. Typical North and West setup. "Of course I could be wrong about all of that". I specialize in forecasts 12 to 16 hrs. before the event begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 That map is the 3z. The 9z isn't quite as wet, but is colder. Also seems to put down quite a bit of that after the temps are more favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Most of that is rain, we get about .10 to .25 of snow on the backside if you take 9 SREF Literary... in central VA where you are, that's correct for DCA/BWI metro area, its not correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Are all the features with this storm onshore now so the models can get an accurate reading on them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 That map is the 3z. The 9z isn't quite as wet, but is colder. Also seems to put down quite a bit of that after the temps are more favorable. you're right, I was jumping back and forth here's 9Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 That's still pretty dang wet, given how dry we have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Are all the features with this storm onshore now so the models can get an accurate reading on them? Until Wes feels confident, the only safe conclusion is that it will be dark at night, lighter during the day, perhaps wet and almost certainly cloudy sometime Wednesday and Thursday. My suggestion is to look for the 850 low on the models as they come out and assume that the good snows will be 75 to 150 miles north and west of the 850 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The NAM at 24 seems stronger and more juiced up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowden Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The NAM at 24 seems stronger and more juiced up. Definitely, I have a feeling this is going to come a bit west, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 500 already closed off compared to the 06Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 NAM will probably come in a bit warmer/wetter than 6z at this point. Looked a little more amplified vs 6z. I'm only to 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Wouldn't be surprised to see a quicker phase with a slight westerly track from the 06Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Borderline...very borderline. I viewed the SREF 850 as an animation (try it!) and 63 hrs. is the warmest portion of the storm. The 0 deg. line bisects Harford County, Baltimore County and N. Howard County. DC changes over for sure. Typical North and West setup. "Of course I could be wrong about all of that". I specialize in forecasts 12 to 16 hrs. before the event begins. I posted before 09Z came out. They are much colder than 03Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 NAM will probably come in a bit warmer/wetter than 6z at this point. Looked a little more amplified vs 6z. I'm only to 30 Through 54HR, not sure I agree on wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 NAM is torching at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Through 54HR, not sure I agree. Hey, I hope I'm wrong. But that was based on 30 hours. I saw in the PHilly forum at 51 hours the NAM had a High coming into the US..probably gonna be way too late for us though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Through 54HR, not sure I agree. Been lurking with you all for a while and hope you will accept me as part of the group...really think you guys are great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Been lurking with you all for a while and hope you will accept me as part of the group...really think you guys are great Helpful tip. Add your location so that people will know where you are from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Helpful tip. Add your location so that people will know where you are from. will do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 NAM looks terrible to me. Drier and warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 NAM looks terrible to me. Drier and warmer. H85 low is split with 2 centers-- lack of dynamical cooling = warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Hope we can throw this one out. NAM is schizophrenic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Here are the 9z SREF plumes for BWI. Only 4 have us ending as rain. But means are about 2/3" of rain and 1/3" of snow QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmondsnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Been lurking with you all for a while and hope you will accept me as part of the group...really think you guys are great Same here! Looking to join! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The nam surface looks weird when compared to the 500h center. I'm not sure what it means. It certainly has lots fo convection out with the eastern low. That might be right but could also be an artifact of the latent heating from its convective scheme. This run does illustrate how much this is a thread the needle deal which around hee usually doesn't work that well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This run is whack. Why is it whenever we get a millerA this yr, its always an elongated low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waldo5252 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Fox 5 Morning DC weather just said starting early morning with a mix then rain S & E, snow N & W of DC, ending as about 6 hours of snow from about 6PM - Midnight. FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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