Ji Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Nam is coming in stronger w storm Euro is much colder than 12z for iAd/Leesburg. 850 temps peak at 1. Euro warm bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Whoa...nam says cold at 850 due to extreme heavy precip?? http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/06/images/nam_pcp_060m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Fresh weak high keeping temps cooler? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 That's the high qpf nam I know and love. Basically a colder cave to the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Alot of weenies will love the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 and its not done yet per 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Nam is a mecs borderline hecs for western burbs. The hole over dc is closed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 and its not done yet per 72 If this run occurred at 00z...the server would of shut down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 STUNNING RUN but riding the 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 This looks like those runs a few days ago when euro gave us 3 inches of liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
insanegrenade Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 and its looking colder correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 agreed leesburrgh looks wintry per 6z nam dicey here but ill take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Threads the needle perfectly...hold it here! 54 more hours to go. I think high pressure is helping out just enough plus heavy qpf. I could see heavy snow but when there is a lull..light rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
insanegrenade Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 this is starting to look like our big storm of last december. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 If this run occurred at 00z...the server would of shut down Boards gonna go nuts in the next Two hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 54 more hours to go. I think high pressure is helping out just enough plus heavy qpf. I could see heavy snow but when there is a lull..light rain 53.5 hours & counting. . Only concern, there is a clear westward trend right now, we don't have much wiggle room westward.. this thing cannot budge. This could be a tree snapper if it takes the right track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Clown maps are bs but stunning none the less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looking at the upper air I am not sure I buy the surface. Looks like the upper air is close to being vertically stacked and yet it has an elongated low from the upper level support extending to the northeast which continues that look through 78 hours. Looks like the NAM is undecided whether it wants to capture it or miss and let it go OTS. With those temp profiles that the NAM is already showing I think a capture would mean a very nice surprise for a lot more people on this board with colder temps to the south and east and heavier precip reaching farther to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 06Z GFS has the 850 north and west of the cities for most of the event with it dropping down to maybe giving a quick shot of snow at the end for them. To the north and west the surface temps are marginal for most with the heavier precip really never reaching them. Edit: With this track and setup if this were a little colder upstairs and on the surface it would be a major hit for the cities and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The trends on the 06Z NAM and GFS are very encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The trends on the 06Z NAM and GFS are very encouraging. Might be right. There seems to be signs of a DC snowhole (but it is hard to see on my bberry). Gives it credence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 9 degrees this morning on my way to work, it was numbing. kinda hard to believe that in 48 hours I'll be hoping for temps below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Might be right. There seems to be signs of a DC snowhole (but it is hard to see on my bberry). Gives it credence. There is no DC/Balt precip hole on either the 6z NAM or GFS. Snow, dunno. But those model runs were wet. NAM colder than GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 There is no DC/Balt precip hole on either the 6z NAM or GFS. Snow, dunno. But those model runs were wet. NAM colder than GFS. On showmethesnow's last map above, don't the "blues" almost encircle DC but not include it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Normally don't post maps, but thought these would lift the spirits. I especially like the 2nd one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Just for the record, they get that kind of weather quite a bit...its not all that incredible to be honest. Yep ...that's actually mild for them Again, a bit off topic, but to clarify: That ob showed temps 30 degrees below average. -33 with a 71 mph wind is pretty incredible. Antarctica might be one of the few places you would see that. Himalayas. The next time we have a low that is 30 degrees below average, let me know how mild that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Normally don't post maps, but thought these would lift the spirits. I especially like the 2nd one. The 70% line vs. the 10% line are practically right on top of each other in Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 According to the vertical temperature profiles KDCA would remain all snow on the 6z NAM. KDCA_6ZNAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Again, a bit off topic, but to clarify: That ob showed temps 30 degrees below average. -33 with a 71 mph wind is pretty incredible. Antarctica might be one of the few places you would see that. Himalayas. The next time we have a low that is 30 degrees below average, let me know how mild that is. But he wasn't referring to the DC area/Mid-Atlantic - he meant it's mild for Mt Washington in probably a slightly exaggerated sense. Sure it's extreme weather but very very common for them. I think the record is 231mph wind gust there as well. I think the Mt. Wash observers probably would not blink an eye at those conditions but they are impressive nonetheless! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 54 more hours to go. I think high pressure is helping out just enough plus heavy qpf. I could see heavy snow but when there is a lull..light rain You could be correct. My track record for this storm is horrid but that will not shut me up... ...time to hug a blend of the NAM and GFS. PSUHoffman could get 10" in the upcountry of Carroll County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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