psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 huh? Don't let him get u down, GGEM is a very minor tweak from being a SECS/MECS for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 best case scenario would be a hybrid type solution. With a 1040 high over New England we do not need sub 1000 mb low to get the needed gradient for good moisture transport. Its possible to get a nice overrunning event during the early stages of development, then have a decent low form once off the coast to add a little to the end. A bomb would probably be bad, we are in agreement there. i havent seen a good overrunning event unconnected to a coastal since i've lived here. i guess the best was feb 07 but that was a low cutting to our west. so that at least tells me great ones don't happen terribly often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Don't let him get u down, GGEM is a very minor tweak from being a SECS/MECS for DC. So is the GFS, Keep the shortwave together after Arkansas and we might be okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 i havent seen a good overrunning event unconnected to a coastal since i've lived here. i guess the best was feb 07 but that was a low cutting to our west. so that at least tells me great ones don't happen terribly often. 1/26/2004 was mostly an overrunning event with a trough of low pressure banked up west of the apps against a high over New England. Eventually a very weak coastal did form but it moved due east and out without adding anything. 5-7" DC area 8.5" for Manchester A few inches up to Philly nothing north of that. Best example I could think off from memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 1/26/2004 was mostly an overrunning event with a trough of low pressure banked up west of the apps against a high over New England. Eventually a very weak coastal did form but it moved due east and out without adding anything. 5-7" DC area 8.5" for Manchester A few inches up to Philly nothing north of that. Best example I could think off from memory. nice. 25-27.. 3.5, 1, 1.2 at DCA 3.3, 2.4, 1 at BWI 4, 1, 0.6 at IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GGEM is out to 180 on ewall Does give another 1-2" of snow from DC north after 144. So its basically a 3-4" snow for the area Best of all it rides the low due north into new england so NYC and BOS get rained on in later panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 at 78 on the euro the nads storm is weaker and easter. outer banks get snow but should be much less than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Today was a day of flux on the models. Yesterday all the models were keying on the second vort to dive in next week. Today they are starting to key on the first for a storm. That is why its sped up by a day. They still wash out much of the H5 energy for the storm after 108 hours. I want to see in future runs if they continue to evolve and put more emphasis on the first vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 at 78 on the euro the nads storm is weaker and easter. outer banks get snow but should be much less than 12z. That means it is probably bad for locking in the high for the Hoffman storm correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 correction: outer banks similar, big drop was to the sw mainly over ocean but also some land near sc/nc border. storm exiting at 84... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 That means it is probably bad for locking in the high for the Hoffman storm correct? ehh yes but the NAO is slightly negative to begin with, not enough to lock the high in but it wont fly out either, and things have been faster on models tonight. It might be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 ehh yes but the NAO is slightly negative to begin with, not enough to lock the high in but it wont fly out either, and things have been faster on models tonight. It might be ok. Thank you, i think i am learning something finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 That means it is probably bad for locking in the high for the Hoffman storm correct? dunno but by 96 (0z mon) it's stronger than it was at 12z anyway.. east of nova scotia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 changes are fairly minor thru 108.. 500 trough a little less amped, northern stream maybe slightly stronger.. southern vort looks weaker also further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 changes are fairly minor thru 108.. 500 trough a little less amped, northern stream maybe slightly stronger.. southern vort looks weaker also further south. none of that sounds good, but I should let it play out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 broad 1012 low in ngom at 126... last frame was a big step back in a better direction after looking kinda lame. 500 still looks less amped overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 definitely southeast .. thru 132 about .1"+ across whole area into n md, was .25"+ with .5"+ nosing up on 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 none of that sounds good, but I should let it play out From the NY thread it sounds pretty decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 138 snowing still probably dc n and w.. .5" line to dc.. colder than 12z at 850 at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 1004 off hat at 144.. still snowing n&w of dc, dc might be mixing or rain, .5"+ pushing west toward blue ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 From the NY thread it sounds pretty decent. I'm following both and its like two different models, lol. They're probably exaggerating a bit. I dunno. I'm going to bed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 150 has a 992 east of delmarva.. this is a great (err, pretty good) track .. qpf seems light on the west side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 1004 off hat at 144.. still snowing n&w of dc, dc might be mixing or rain, .5"+ pushing west toward blue ridge There's my baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Now the two descriptions are meshing up..looks like a good storm, but warmish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'm following both and its like two different models, lol. They're probably exaggerating a bit. I dunno. I'm going to bed I was thinking maybe im crazy. I trust IAN though much more he is much more measured and let's everything play out and is usually except for that one hiccup when he was reading the old EURO more accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Now the two descriptions are meshing up..looks like a good storm, but warmish. much cooler than last run since it's like 200-300 miles east and much more wound up.. massive hit for interior sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 150 has a 992 east of delmarva.. this is a great (err, pretty good) track .. qpf seems light on the west side Damn you almost did it, thank the lord you corrected yourself . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 150 has a 992 east of delmarva.. this is a great (err, pretty good) track .. qpf seems light on the west side ehh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 much cooler than last run since it's like 200-300 miles east and much more wound up.. massive hit for interior sne. I told you that you bring good luck . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 much cooler than last run since it's like 200-300 miles east and much more wound up.. massive hit for interior sne. This is pretty shocking. But seriously, the temp trend is better on the Euro for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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