Ji Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 I dont understand how we don't get precip from a low tracking inside hatterras. That's the reason for the warmth. Euro gives an an inch of liquid so I'm not buying the Gfs qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Bit off topic, but everybody is in here, so ...... interesting..... current Mount Washington ob: -33 F, NW wind at 71mph. I know we are interested in incredible weather. I hope I'm not out of line with this. Just for the record, they get that kind of weather quite a bit...its not all that incredible to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'm pretty sure that's not that uncommon for them in the winter. They also hold the wind speed record. Yes I know. If you've never been up there, the buildings are chained to the ground. I know its common, but its unbelievable to think about what that would be like to experience in person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I dont understand how we don't get precip from a low tracking inside hatterras. That's the reason for the warmth. Euro gives an an inch of liquid so I'm not buying the Gfs qpf That is the same thing I was thinking. I'm no met, however it seems pretty fishy. Edited to add: On the GFS the QPF differences on the west side of the circulation increase dramatically from hour 72 to 78. It goes from around .01 over DCA to .75+ 6 hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Just for the record, they get that kind of weather quite a bit...its not all that incredible to be honest. Yep ...that's actually mild for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Anyone have temps for UKMET? Track and qpf look fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 we're basically back where we were before the burp which given the euro makes it likely it was a burp. temps are an issue but there is some cold to be tapped. as the low goes you can see it feeding in. in this time range a 500 loop like this is probably about exactly what you want to see. i mean, it's still a little messy with the additional small vorts about but this yr.. i'll take it. as much as i hate to agree with you we are just off threading the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I seem to remember more than one of last year's storms looking like temps were going to be a problem, and those of us in the DC metro area know how that turned out. very true, but in those storms i think we did have strong highs to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neero Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Thanks for posting. Bye bye now. Sorry, guess I offended, jumped too quickly to conclusions? I really didn't mean any harm, and I apologize. I dunno, I guess I've just seen this happen so many times this season... I'm fairly new, so I was kinda hoping someone would validate/disprove what I said, so that I can learn more. Peace? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 we're basically back where we were before the burp which given the euro makes it likely it was a burp. temps are an issue but there is some cold to be tapped. as the low goes you can see it feeding in. in this time range a 500 loop like this is probably about exactly what you want to see. i mean, it's still a little messy with the additional small vorts about but this yr.. i'll take it. as much as i hate to agree with you we are just off threading the needle. I like the tone of your comments. I see positives here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Sorry, guess I offended, jumped too quickly to conclusions? I really didn't mean any harm, and I apologize. I dunno, I guess I've just seen this happen so many times this season... I'm fairly new, so I was kinda hoping someone would validate/disprove what I said, so that I can learn more. Peace? No worries. I have just gotten to my witts end with the negativity in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Anyone have temps for UKMET? Track and qpf look fantastic. 0c 850s are just west of I-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 One weenie in the Philly board Congrats the nogaps for kicking the Gfs ass when the storm is still 2 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 No worries. I have just gotten to my witts end with the negativity in here. I've never seen more people complain over every possible model run. When the GFS was south, everyone was whining it was a miss (even though in years past we would have loved to see a storm like that to our south at this stage. ) When the GFS come off the coast with precip, it was too warm (even though we always knew it very well could be a rain storm.) A few days ago, when the GFS had us in 3 to 5 inches it was bad cause it signaled a Miller B. I swear if the GFS comes up with a bomb by morning showing us getting a foot of heavy wet snow, everyone will be complaining we are in the bullseye and start talking how they fear a north a trend. Lets just get used to this fact: There will probably not be a perfect storm this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 0c 850s are just west of I-95 I'd say the UKMET is pretty much in the middle of the cluster. I live 60 miles west of I95, so I'll take my chances. I'll wait up for the GGEM. If it comes east any, I'll sleep well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neero Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 No worries. I have just gotten to my witts end with the negativity in here. Thanks; I understand where you're coming from totally. I am never sure whether I'm going to end up branded a weather weenie or an overly negative poster... don't know which is worse 0_o The way I see it: Positives: -High QPF possibilities (up to around 1.0 - 1.5+ even in some past runs) -Powerful system in general (strong, closed low just off the coast) -Potential for a nice track (maybe not another boomerang sort of "screw-the-Mid-Atlantic-but-then-curve-into-New-England" thing?) -Cold temperatures beforehand -High pressures in Canada (disorganized, not particularly strong, but with some shifting southward, could be in good places) Negatives: -Those darn temperatures! The storm seems too strong for this set-up, and pulls too much warm air with it. A later build would be nice -QPF hole developing? The tracks seem to be shifting it too far away (trending that way, at least, but forecasting a forecast is two levels of meta-impossibility) -Track shifting off the coast too far? It's hard to seek that perfect balance of closeness to the coast without warmth; distance away without zero precip. The negatives seem pretty severe, but with fluid dynamics on such a massive scale, anything can happen at this point. Comments? Justifications of either side. I'm not trying to make any profound points, but I'd like to hear a more seasoned perspective on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Good luck on that lol just goin by the model...that is what we are talkin about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The negatives seem pretty severe, but with fluid dynamics on such a massive scale, anything can happen at this point. Comments? Justifications of either side. I'm not trying to make any profound points, but I'd like to hear a more seasoned perspective on this. The more seasoned perspective has been known for the past 24 hours. It looks like it's going to rain, especially along I-95 but better chances for snow west of the cities. However, there is still some time for things to trend in the other direction. If you want to know more, you can read it here, http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2011/01/latest_on_the_tuesday-wednesda.html#more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 gfs ens mean 500 almost on top of op http://raleighwx.ame...nomalyNA072.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_072m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 gfs ens mean 500 almost on top of op http://raleighwx.ame...nomalyNA072.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_072m.gif The mean is very wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GGEM still inland and roasting, in case the GGEM weenies here cared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The mean is very wet. Better 850 wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Better 850 wise? Depends what happens between 66 and 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 GGEM still inland and roasting, in case the GGEM weenies here cared. It shifted east quite a bit. It will cave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It shifted east quite a bit. It will cave I couldn't care less about it, but there are some folks here who seem obsessed with it and that silly UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Depends what happens between 66 and 72. still looks warm east of 95.. perhaps a tick warmer at 850 than 12z tho the low is further north in the comparo frame so who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 still looks warm east of 95.. perhaps a tick warmer at 850 than 12z tho the low is further north in the comparo frame so who knows I broke my own rule about not caring about temps on a smoothed mean product. Not sure temps matter on the GFS ensemble mean. 500 does, for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Just came home from bowling. High roll was 234. Wanted to save some of that luck for the storm. I am still optimistic looking at the latest GFS run. For some reason the heavy precip seems to encircle us but not close in, which I don't see as very likely. At hour 66 the NC and VA Apps are getting crushed with QPF whil precip closer to the low is lighter....not buying it. I think QPF's on the GFS will go towards the Euro and I think temps will be the only worry. And with heavier precip and a stark potential for this storm to create its own cold air, I'm sticking with my optimism. Anyone in here whining about only seeing 1-3 inches, tough luck because although I see potential for decent accumulation, I'd be happy with my 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 gfs and nam most keep warming up for tuesday around here.. mainly upper 40s now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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