MDstorm Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Well, if Ian and mitchnick feel good about the SREFs I'll buy in. Can someone help me? I appear to be lost. I thought I was in the Mid Atlantic forum, but there seems to be more optimism here than I am used to seeing. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 at 42 it looks like the 500 energy will try to close off again this run compared to not doing so last run. it is still kinda stretched right now tho and early, but eh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 No precip will do that to you as well. Anyway, looks better on NAM to my nearly blind eye. More ridging out in front, digging a little deeper in the NM/TX area. Am I seeing that correctly? Agree but not having that high pressure makes it so complicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 at 48 500 is definitely north but the surface the low is se of 18z. hopefully it gets yanked next frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 said that last night if you recall (either speed it up incredibly or slow it down to let things get right in Canada) option 2 is giving us a fighting chance if nothing else Can't remember which run it was (maybe 06Z today), but you could see an area of higher pressure kind of near the Manitoba/Ontario border - sneaking in behind the departing high. Since then, I've been on the lookout for something similar nosing in to help keep any cold in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 at 48 500 is definitely north but the surface the low is se of 18z. hopefully it gets yanked next frame. it did at 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 by 54 it's back where 18z was but stronger at the surface.. precip def west. 500 a good bit better but should be a graze i'd guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 are people really more concerned about a whiff than a rain event? HPCs snow maps basically line up with the GGEM and only the NAM and GFS are going OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I have a hard time thinking we get whiffed it'll be between rain or snow, or a mix of the 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Please stop. The run isn't even done or even out that far yet. No I'm saying the way its oriented synoptically it probably gives us near zero QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 850s are a good deal colder thru 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 At the risk of angering dtk, I don't see how anyone can be happy with the performance of the models at this point. GFS has vacillated between an I-95 snowstorm and nothing at all for several days and NAM keeps jumping inland to OTS. How do they aid forecasters? Euro has its mojo back in terms of consistency. No anger...I'm watching the same things you are. Also, the Euro has been consistent before (to a fault)....which isn't always a good thing [it can lead to a false sense of confidence]. We still don't know how this is going to play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 60 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 this is going to be an epic run Wiff or Hit? Whiff.. loop the radar through 54 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 850s are a good deal colder thru 60 surface is at or below freezing too at DCA/BWI by 60 hrs, surface winds are from the N/NE as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Again with the elongated low at 60hrs... that reminds me of DEC26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 come on baby!!!! 60 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Again with the elongated low at 60hrs... that reminds me of DEC26. it's further south than last run but looks like it will be just too late for us... these jumps have been unforgiving this yr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Whiff.. loop the radar through 54 hours Yep, a whiff. The way its set up synoptically is not ideal with the elongated low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 this is going to be an epic run Wiff or Hit? Depends on who's extrapolating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 come to papa at 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yep, a whiff. The way its set up synoptically is not ideal with the elongated low. OK well now I would tend to agree with you on this run but before it was still unclear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Was joking with this post think we get hit decently Whiff.. loop the radar through 54 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 come to papa at 66 I'm liking that a lot mitchnick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 500 may be a tad too far south or late its gonna be close on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 it's further south than last run but looks like it will be just too late for us... these jumps have been unforgiving this yr Looking at it, it looks like it will hook and spread love in NE again. Because, well, as we always are quick to note, they deserve it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 surface is warm at 66 hrs maybe too warm dang, this is a nail biter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 surface is warm at 66 hrs maybe too warm dang, this is a nail biter it's going to mostly miss.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 OK well now I would tend to agree with you on this run but before it was still unclear. I could see the low was about to elongate since energy was escaping...we don't want that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 it's going to mostly miss.. yeah, I mentioned that a couple posts up 5H seems a fit too far south if its not going to close off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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