PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 its cold 850s have been fine. Surface has been torching on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 its cold it is pretty cold at 850 it seems. the 500 track is ideal imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 looks like it http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/21/images/sref_b2m_072s.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/21/images/sref_x06_072s.gif We will have a perfect track, cold upper levels, and 40 degree rain at the surface... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 it is pretty cold at 850 it seems. the 500 track is ideal imo. I think it would be pretty humorous if we got massive amounts of QPF with ok 850s and then the surface torched to like 38 and it all melted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 it is pretty cold at 850 it seems. the 500 track is ideal imo. Can we overcome the surface temps? Please help me feel good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 it is pretty cold at 850 it seems. the 500 track is ideal imo. 2m temps are crashing at 75 and there's more precip to fall if you look at the 6hr precip maps don't be surprised if the NAM looks darn good tonight and even if it doesn't, it may take until 6Z or 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 i think part of it is the northern stream is too unstable/prone to having a million more shortwaves than seen from a week out. the euro will probably bail tonight if the others hold with the southeast look. It seems you have the same idea as BI, as to how the Pacific Jet is irregular in both the spacing of waves and the amplitudes being random. The models will improve when we have more the data-sparce ocean regions filled in with rich data derived from satellite measurements. The Europeans have invested more in computing power, we need more tax money spent on computing power to placate the weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 We will have a perfect track, cold upper levels, and 40 degree rain at the surface... It depends. If we can get the right 500 track and good lift it will mix down in banding etc. Once you cool the surface you probably don't go back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 We will have a perfect track, cold upper levels, and 40 degree rain at the surface... Bring it - I'll take my chances with the cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Bring it - I'll take my chances with the cold air right, the SREF's are many models and I will gladly take my chances because I think things are turning for us on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It depends. If we can get the right 500 track and good lift it will mix down in banding etc. Once you cool the surface you probably don't go back. May just be wishful thinking on my part, but it seems every time we have precip and 850's that are OK, the surface temp forecasts always seem too high. At least this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It depends. If we can get the right 500 track and good lift it will mix down in banding etc. Once you cool the surface you probably don't go back. Bring it - I'll take my chances with the cold air right, the SREF's are many models and I will gladly take my chances because I think things are turning for us on this one Lets all gather and sing a song for good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 right, the SREF's are many models and I will gladly take my chances because I think things are turning for us on this one My god say it isn't so. Seasonal trend is over? Hmmmm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 2m temps are crashing at 75 and there's more precip to fall if you look at the 6hr precip maps don't be surprised if the NAM looks darn good tonight and even if it doesn't, it may take until 6Z or 12Z it's moving out by then imo.. loop the 6hrs. the surface doesnt really concern me all that much with temps progged to be mostly in the 30s. gotta assume many members of sref are west with the precip output, so i guess the weight should be toward nam being west but it could be one of those east ones... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 for whatever they are worth with this storm, this is about as good a run we could have hoped for from the SREF's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 We will have a perfect track, cold upper levels, and 40 degree rain at the surface... Well with the surface 2m graphics, you can't easily tell if it's 33 F or more like 36 F. 33 F would be like 12/5/09 NW of the beltway while 36 would be like that storm at DCA. (12Z NAM ended up being around 33 F at IAD as the snow ramped up.) If we're going to literally analyze this ensemble mean, 40 F seems to be quite a bit SE of the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 My god say it isn't so. Seasonal trend is over? Hmmmm.. maybe, we'll see I still think Euro is too far west but when corrected east will have precip over us just like the storm last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'll be interested in seeing the ind members to see how they get this mean precip. Hopefully they will be similar, but at 15z there were several that got those totals by bringing a "second" batch of precip in from the southwest. Those were some of the warmest members too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 my God, I'm just a country doctor and have never performed a penal implant Jim! Is that a new version of an ankle monitoring bracelet? On topic: The SREFs don't make me feel worse or better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 May just be wishful thinking on my part, but it seems every time we have precip and 850's that are OK, the surface temp forecasts always seem too high. At least this time of year. the no cold high thing still sucks but in some ways this slowing down as much as it has helped a little after it initially hurt. monday was great with the high still north, tuesday not as much with it right northeast but by wed it's pretty far out there and there is a little more cold up north to be tapped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 My feeling is all the models have the 500 going south of us and that is great if you want some snow and that is what all of them are showing now. And I suspect we will do ok with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 it is a plot by the (insert your least favorite political party here) to mess with (insert your favorite political party here). seriuosly, how many times have the models lost a storm this winter only to bring it back? I still thin some of us will see something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 the no cold high thing still sucks but in some ways this slowing down as much as it has helped a little after it initially hurt. monday was great with the high still north, tuesday not as much with it right northeast but by wed it's pretty far out there and there is a little more cold up north to be tapped. said that last night if you recall (either speed it up incredibly or slow it down to let things get right in Canada) option 2 is giving us a fighting chance if nothing else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 While there's a little lull here, anybody know why the SREF ind members comes out at almost the exact same time as the mean, except at 21Z. They are usually about an hour + after the the mean comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Well, if Ian and mitchnick feel good about the SREFs I'll buy in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 said that last night if you recall (either speed it up incredibly or slow it down to let things get right in Canada) option 2 is giving us a fighting chance if nothing else well and we do still have a -nao even if it's not optimal. so that's going to help push some colder air in our direction to be tapped even if there is no fat surface high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 well and we do still have a -nao even if it's not optimal. so that's going to help push some colder air in our direction to be tapped even if there is no fat surface high. being that it's the third week of January should help too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 We will have a perfect track, cold upper levels, and 40 degree rain at the surface... Backlash, baby. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 No cold high pressure still gets me nervous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 No cold high pressure still gets me nervous No precip will do that to you as well. Anyway, looks better on NAM to my nearly blind eye. More ridging out in front, digging a little deeper in the NM/TX area. Am I seeing that correctly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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