Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 18z clown maps for 18z gfs ens members http://raleighwx.ame...8zsnowf090.html they might be a little better than it looked on ewall but not much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 60HR Precip. Believe this should be the totals for the run up the coast. Could this be a Nesis3 or 4? RGEM...came west...AGAIN I don't know if these pics will post, but if they don't, you can go back to page 8 of the general forum and read the 06z models thread to see that by daybreak on Christmas we all thought we were getting a good snow. I didn't check the 12z thread, but I'm pretty sure that's when the Titantic hit the iceberg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I don't know if these pics will post, but if they don't, you can go back to page 8 of the general forum and read the 06z models thread to see that by daybreak on Christmas we all thought we were getting a good snow. I didn't check the 12z thread, but I'm pretty sure that's when the Titantic hit the iceberg. things backed off a good bit but it still looked like we'd get some. sref kept insisting we'd do OK thru dec 26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 18z clown maps for 18z gfs ens members http://raleighwx.ame...8zsnowf090.html they might be a little better than it looked on ewall but not much They look like the seasonal trend. Damn i hated to say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 things backed off a good bit but it still looked like we'd get some. sref kept insisting we'd do OK thru dec 26. My memory is a little clouded by bitterness, but another thing that I remember is the RUC Christmas morning giving us measureable precip by 10 PM Christmas night for about 4 runs in a row and then on the fifth run, about 11 AM that morning, took it away, and never did show any green over my area again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 How'd the 2nd half go? turned quite mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 turned quite mild. but I got 18 inches of snow in 3 events in March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 shortly after radar indicated it ROFL... You guys crack me up. Definitley the best regional thread. I have to come over here to lurk after getting sick of the NYC/Phil. region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 as pessimistic as I have been, I don't understand the doom and gloom after the 18Z runs ... Don't get me wrong, I'm not all doom and gloom right now. I fully understand that we are still three days out from this. I know it will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Don't get me wrong, I'm not all doom and gloom right now. I fully understand that we are still three days out from this. I know it will change. Funny. As long as I've been watching this stuff (6 Years) I have never been more unsure. It's crazy right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 At the risk of angering dtk, I don't see how anyone can be happy with the performance of the models at this point. GFS has vacillated between an I-95 snowstorm and nothing at all for several days and NAM keeps jumping inland to OTS. How do they aid forecasters? Euro has its mojo back in terms of consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 At the risk of angering dtk, I don't see how anyone can be happy with the performance of the models at this point. GFS has vacillated between an I-95 snowstorm and nothing at all for several days and NAM keeps jumping inland to OTS. How do they aid forecasters? Euro has its mojo back in terms of consistency. i think part of it is the northern stream is too unstable/prone to having a million more shortwaves than seen from a week out. the euro will probably bail tonight if the others hold with the southeast look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I don't see what the problem is. Models have clear consensus. It will either snow, rain, or be dry. 33% chance of snow??? I'll take those odds. 100% Chance of weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 i think part of it is the northern stream is too unstable/prone to having a million more shortwaves than seen from a week out. the euro will probably bail tonight if the others hold with the southeast look. So game over if GFS holds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 So game over if GFS holds? If the GFS hold you should throw it a party. Would be a major accomplishment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 So game over if GFS holds? not sure if it's game over but if the gfs still looks east i'd think it might be on to something. the euro has been too amplified a number of times this winter regardless of its consistency here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 If the GFS hold you should throw it a party. Would be a major accomplishment. Yeah, would be the first time for back to back in what? About 4 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 ok - time to throw the dice again with the 0z model suite NAM is rolling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Hasn't the euro been pretty consistent with its too far east look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Hmm, the SREFs sure look they want to bring the low up a little closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 sref looks pretty good at 500 and quite wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Hasn't the euro been pretty consistent with its too far east look? Too far east? Euro is warm and fairly close to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 pretty similar to the euro actually. woot-for precip fans at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 sref looks pretty good at 500 and quite wet Temps = meh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Hmm, the SREFs sure look they want to bring the low up a little closer. Wetter, by a good deal. Haven't looked at anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 its cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Temps = meh? looks like it http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/21/images/sref_b2m_072s.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/21/images/sref_x06_072s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 63 hrs is the warmest the 850's get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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