SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Think precip might be underdone? Looks like the handleing of the PDII Very much so, the models don't see overrunning well outside 48-72 hours, they certainly don't see it at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 weird, when computers have shown long duration light snows in the medium range they have a decent shot at being something much bigger this has snow over is from 114 hrs-144 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Very much so, the models don't see overrunning well outside 48-72 hours, they certainly don't see it at 120 Oh? We're listening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Nice surface setup. Strong temp gradient and moisture transport from the gulf and the atlantic. If only we get 1dm of height falls between 108hrs and 144hrs, it will be a great storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GFS just loses the southern energy. It often is wrong with southern energy at this stage. However, this year the southern stream has been underwhelming. Hopefully, the GFS is wrong with its weakening of the southern energy. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GFS just loses the southern energy. It often is wrong with southern energy at this stage. However, this year the southern stream has been underwhelming. Hopefully, the GFS is wrong with its weakening of the southern energy. MDstorm You guys could get hard here even without a very strong piece of energy to the south...given the setup over the N ATL still is not perfect you really do not want a massive phase or low which now is beginning to appear very unlikely anyway....I've seen subtle features at 500 generate 8 inches of snow with 1040mb highs to the north...you need stronger flow at 850mb than currently shown on the GFS but its possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GFS just loses the southern energy. It often is wrong with southern energy at this stage. However, this year the southern stream has been underwhelming. Hopefully, the GFS is wrong with its weakening of the southern energy. MDstorm what we have going for us for the first time this year is this http://cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GFS just loses the southern energy. It often is wrong with southern energy at this stage. However, this year the southern stream has been underwhelming. Hopefully, the GFS is wrong with its weakening of the southern energy. MDstorm what it's doing with the southern energy looks a lot like what we've already seen this yr to me. i think our best odds are just getting precip to move in from the southwest for now. the problem is part of the underwhelmingness is that things are just getting sheared apart as they come east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 what we have going for us for the first time this year is this http://cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.html Good point. The mjo could give the southern stream some legs. We just need a little extra kick in the southern stream to pair with that set-up to the north. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 well atleast we lost the driving north blow torch to rain idea----- for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 what it's doing with the southern energy looks a lot like what we've already seen this yr to me. i think our best odds are just getting precip to move in from the southwest for now. the problem is part of the underwhelmingness is that things are just getting sheared apart as they come east. Its highly possible the system digging over OK will not dig THAT much, those areas out there are getting a bit screwed tonight as the disturbance today is not digging as much as models initially thought, typically in La Ninas or really EVER S KS/N OK do not see snow from northern branch systems so I tend to be suspicious when models show 500mb disturbances cutting to their south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 well atleast we lost the driving north blow torch to rain idea----- for now overall on the gfs i think we've moved away from the 'psuhoffman storm'.. 500 is worse now than it has been. it could snow but the gfs doesnt support any big east coast low as is. of course it can change a ton by this time tomorrow if history is any lesson. this is not the awesomeness http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_168m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Good point. The mjo could give the southern stream some legs. We just need a little extra kick in the southern stream to pair with that set-up to the north. MDstorm and here's a link to the MJO forecast we'll be in phase 8 by Monday it seems, and that's a good place to be http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Nice storm, might change to rainalong the coast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 overall on the gfs i think we've moved away from the 'psuhoffman storm'.. 500 is worse now than it has been. it could snow but the gfs doesnt support any big east coast low as is. of course it can change a ton by this time tomorrow if history is any lesson. this is not the awesomeness http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_168m.gif so you think this H5 setup does not have potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 so you think this H5 setup does not have potential? I'm with you on this one psuhoffman. That looks really good to me for at least a moderate overrunning event, and the potential is still on the table for something bigger if the southern stream is more progressive. This run was a bit more progressive with that southwest energy than the 18z gfs so things are moving in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The 00Z NOGAPS at 120 hours is slower than the GFS...thats the only bad news so far, I'd like to see that be more east since its a very progressive model typically...that could argue the GFS is too fast evolving everything, the GEM will be fun to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 That high looks nice... but is it on the way out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 so you think this H5 setup does not have potential? i didnt say that but i also dont define a run by a panel or small group of panels. the gfs is probably wrong in many areas. one of the most frustrating things for me lately is how much weight is put into these runs that have proven time and time again this season to have major issues looking out over any length of time. still, we were not seeing things as strung out in prior runs and there was a nicely defined vort that was passing south. this run just has a huge stretched out positive trough for much of the time. last yr phasing and great solutions were easy (at least when it mattered).. this yr it is not. there are multiple factors that argue we should get some shovelable snow over the coming period of weeks. overall climo is a big one -- this is our snowiest period historically. there are some other indicators that i think are positive as well. but im not going to hang on a storm in this timeframe unless everything is screaming that it's a real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 i didnt say that but i also dont define a run by a panel or small group of panels. the gfs is probably wrong in many areas. one of the most frustrating things for me lately is how much weight is put into these runs that have proven time and time again this season to have major issues looking out over any length of time. still, we were not seeing things as strung out in prior runs and there was a nicely defined vort that was passing south. this run just has a huge stretched out positive trough for much of the time. last yr phasing and great solutions were easy (at least when it mattered).. this yr it is not. there are multiple factors that argue we should get some shovelable snow over the coming period of weeks. overall climo is a big one -- this is our snowiest period historically. there are some other indicators that i think are positive as well. but im not going to hang on a storm in this timeframe unless everything is screaming that it's a real deal. I agree with you basically. However, my point is not to use a single panel of a model as gospel but to show that right now just about all guidance shows that about 100 hours from now there is a pattern that has potential. From that point on they diverge and some result in a storm and some do not. All of those possible solutions are on the table but the common thread is at 100 hours the pattern has potential. The GFS washes out much of the energy and still gives us a decent snowstorm and the biggest of the year for DC. It is not nearly reaching the potential this would have if it would amplify the first southern vort instead of hanging energy back. In the end perhaps that is correct but the setup is there. That is all I am thinking right now. Its way too early for specifics, just looking for the setup to be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 That high looks nice... but is it on the way out? Yes, unless something from the south were to cause pressure falls off the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 i didnt say that but i also dont define a run by a panel or small group of panels. the gfs is probably wrong in many areas. one of the most frustrating things for me lately is how much weight is put into these runs that have proven time and time again this season to have major issues looking out over any length of time. still, we were not seeing things as strung out in prior runs and there was a nicely defined vort that was passing south. this run just has a huge stretched out positive trough for much of the time. last yr phasing and great solutions were easy (at least when it mattered).. this yr it is not. there are multiple factors that argue we should get some shovelable snow over the coming period of weeks. overall climo is a big one -- this is our snowiest period historically. there are some other indicators that i think are positive as well. but im not going to hang on a storm in this timeframe unless everything is screaming that it's a real deal. I agree with this viewpoint. This certainly has a lot more going for it than anything else we've seen this year though and even with an elongated trough, which opens the door to the gulf moisture. I actually prefer this over a phased bomb which would most likely be a rainstorm for most. I'm happy to see the idea of the phased bomb at least somewhat diminished, although the progressive nogaps showing a bomb gives me reason to not cancel the phased bomb idea just yet. Still have a few days to iron out the details but an interesting threat and time of year for it nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GGEM doesn't look very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I agree with you basically. However, my point is not to use a single panel of a model as gospel but to show that right now just about all guidance shows that about 100 hours from now there is a pattern that has potential. From that point on they diverge and some result in a storm and some do not. All of those possible solutions are on the table but the common thread is at 100 hours the pattern has potential. The GFS washes out much of the energy and still gives us a decent snowstorm and the biggest of the year for DC. It is not nearly reaching the potential this would have if it would amplify the first southern vort instead of hanging energy back. In the end perhaps that is correct but the setup is there. That is all I am thinking right now. Its way too early for specifics, just looking for the setup to be there. it does seem weird what it does with the vort headed south then chilling etc. i've seen enough things happen that people said dont happen before that im not sure it's wrong. to me the big low might be more of a thread the needle because it can end up inland or another near miss etc. i'd almost rather see this transition into a full overrunning type of event even if the top end is likely lower, perhaps much lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GGEM doesn't look very good. its fine for this range, and judging from the RH at h7 there is more precip after 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I agree with this viewpoint. This certainly has a lot more going for it than anything else we've seen this year though and even with an elongated trough, which opens the door to the gulf moisture. I actually prefer this over a phased bomb which would most likely be a rainstorm for most. I'm happy to see the idea of the phased bomb at least somewhat diminished, although the progressive nogaps showing a bomb gives me reason to not cancel the phased bomb idea just yet. Still have a few days to iron out the details but an interesting threat and time of year for it nonetheless. yep, agree on the bomb. it's a tough act this yr and we've failed a lot. i'd rather try something different.. i think the stream is still too active to get a great solution on a big east coast low here -- though perhaps we are due since it's been a spaghetti plot around us so far. i think that potential comes later in the season... or hope at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GGEM doesn't look very good. huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 it does seem weird what it does with the vort headed south then chilling etc. i've seen enough things happen that people said dont happen before that im not sure it's wrong. to me the big low might be more of a thread the needle because it can end up inland or another near miss etc. i'd almost rather see this transition into a full overrunning type of event even if the top end is likely lower, perhaps much lower. best case scenario would be a hybrid type solution. With a 1040 high over New England we do not need sub 1000 mb low to get the needed gradient for good moisture transport. Its possible to get a nice overrunning event during the early stages of development, then have a decent low form once off the coast to add a little to the end. A bomb would probably be bad, we are in agreement there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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