Ian Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The weaker 500h does make sense with so many impulses on its heals. That doesn't mean it's right but does mean you can't just toss it. boo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I made something. Note that confidence with the forecast is low. EDIT: See some details a few posts down... more at http://madusweather.com/?p=735 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I made something. Note that confidence with the forecast is low. ha, super gutsy ellinwood. good luck. :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 I made something. Note that confidence with the forecast is low. 4-8 for dc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 4-8 for dc? I suppose I should copypasta a bit from my blog to get some better context... Rain and mixed precipitation is a huge concern for the coastal and southern parts of the region, which is the main reason why my confidence in this forecast is low. There is a very narrow area of opportunity for higher amounts of snowfall, and while I have more confidence that there will be a narrow strip of higher totals, where that ends up being remains a mystery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 i have a hard time trusting the nam in this range on those details so i guess ill toss it for now I think this just means no one can call this yet. It isn't like the OTS solutions are totally off-the-wall. We have seen them pop-up on the GFS and NAM a few times already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I suppose I should copypasta a bit from my blog to get some better context... Rain and mixed precipitation is a huge concern for the coastal and southern parts of the region, which is the main reason why my confidence in this forecast is low. There is a very narrow area of opportunity for higher amounts of snowfall, and while I have more confidence that there will be a narrow strip of higher totals, where that ends up being remains a mystery. I like the orientation and amounts, you might just need to slide left or right depending on track and temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
33andrain Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 As far as I'm concerned 18Z= FYEO. Always has, always will. . I'll be looking forward to some more positive changes at 00Z. Until then, FOOTBALL!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I like the orientation and amounts, you might just need to slide left or right depending on track and temps. Thanks, and I definitely share the same concerns. The southern edges might have to be brought up as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 ALL 12z Model tracks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timstobrazil Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 ALL 12z Model tracks you got a link to this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 you got a link to this? I made it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timstobrazil Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I made it lol nice! pretty interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 ALL 12z Model tracks NCEP 12z tracks NCEP Cyclone Tracks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timstobrazil Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 NCEP 12z tracks NCEP Cyclone Tracks we need a hurricane type cone of uncertainty with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 we need a hurricane type cone of uncertainty with this storm The track promises to be stellar, but the temps suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Torch You seem abnormally obsessed with the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 LWX Discussion post-12z: .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLOWER BUT HAS COME INTO BETTERAGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND GENERAL TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOWTHAT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA MIDWEEK. NOT TOO SURPRISED TOSEE THIS SLOWER TREND AS IT HAS HAPPENED IN SOME OF THE PAST BIGGERSTORMS SO FAR THIS WINTER WHILE THE MODELS TRIED TO HANDLE THECOMPLEX NATURE OF SRN AND NRN STREAM PHASING. THE MOST LIKELY TIMEPERIOD FOR PRECIP FROM THE LOW IS NOW DELAYED UNTIL LATE TUE NGTWITH MOST OF IT FALLING DURING THE DAY WED. PRECIP EVEN MAY LINGERUNTIL WED EVE. IT IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY THAT THE STORM TRACKSWEST OF THE AREA...AND LESS LIKELY THAT IT TRACKS OUT TO SEA ANDMISSES THE REGION ENTIRELY.ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT A STORM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MIXED WINTRYPRECIP TO THE AREA IS INCREASING...THE EXACT PTYPE...RAIN AND/ORSNOW...STILL REMAINS AN IMPORTANT ISSUE YET TO BE DETERMINED.ALTHOUGH CLIMO SAYS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST/NRNROCKIES...AND THE MOST LIKELY TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW FROM CAPEHATTERAS TO 50-150 MILES OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WOULD FAVOR AN I-95SNOWSTORM...THERMAL PROFILES SEEN IN THE 12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF SUPPORT ARA/SN MIX EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH MOSTLY SN BUT LESS PRECIPFARTHER WEST. MODIFIED ARCTIC HIPRES THAT IS CURRENTLY SUPPLYINGTHE REGION WITH CHILLY TEMPERATURES ALREADY WILL HAVE MOVED WELLEAST OF THE AREA AND OUT INTO THE NRN ATLANTIC BY THE START OF THEEVENT. WITHOUT THIS HIGH TO THE WEST OR NORTH...THE MID-ATLANTICREGION WILL NOT HAVE A STRONG SOURCE OF COLD AIR TO WORK WITHDURING THE EVENT /ASIDE FROM DYNAMICAL COOLING AND NE FLOW AROUNDTHE DEVELOPING LOW/. ALSO...SINCE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULDFALL DURING THE DAY WED...BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ARE FCSTD TOBE ABOVE FREEZING AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MELTING OF SNOW TO SOMEDEGREE. Looks like they are favoring a track close enough to give us precip but are unsure of the type (rightly so). I like their discussion - very logical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 You seem abnormally obsessed with the GGEM. Who was he on Eastern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 ALL 12z Model tracks Hey, where did you pull that? Jimmy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Hey, where did you pull that? Jimmy He made it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolineWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 12GGEM Ensemble Mean is way more east and tracks right up the coast but its still very warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I like the orientation and amounts, you might just need to slide left or right depending on track and temps. The 12Z GFS doesn't bring the good precipitation north of a line from Charles County to Dover Delaware. The 18Z NAM is even a smidge SE of the 12Z GFS. However, the SREF gives 0.5" from hour 63 to hour 87. IF the SREF is taking the lead, the Ellinwood map could verify, at least DC north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The 12Z GFS doesn't bring the good precipitation north of a line from Charles County to Dover Delaware. The 18Z NAM is even a smidge SE of the 12Z GFS. However, the SREF gives 0.5" from hour 63 to hour 87. IF the SREF is taking the lead, the Ellinwood map could verify, at least DC north. The 18Z NAM is well SE of the 12Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GFS at 54HR looks good. Maybe a little colder than 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 new energy dropping into colorado. at 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Perhaps another OTS miss coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Perhaps another OTS miss coming. Aaaaaaaaaaaaand it's gone! (84h) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 OTS precip is further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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