PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It tells you you should look at the members to see where the mean came from. It looks like there is fairly good agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Looking at the individual members from 84 and 96 it seems like there is good agreement on the track of the storm but the timing differs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 "could be a mostly snow event." Coming from you Wes, can't help but get my hopes up. I was referring to the GFS.. I think the nam is less of a mostly snow even east of the city. Little changes in the track could change the profiles quite a bit. I do think we might get into the 40S on Tuesday which makes Wed tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 My comment on the GFS ensembles is that many look pretty good. Also of note is that almost all of them are faster than the operational. Maybe only a few hours, but I found that interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On the GFS? i think it probably cools back for a decent portion of the precip here, but it's dicey. any closer and it could be too warm. there is like a very small zone of big opportunity it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Looks like the NWS is, understandably, very unconfident. But they do seem to be siding with a warmer solution. Seems like they have less faith in the GFS on this one but I can't be sure. Just saw their updated forecast...they have trended a little cooler, with snow on front side, r/sn in middle and snow on backside. I will now shut up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 my house (2 miles N of BWI) off GFS at 78, 81, and 84 hrs respectively (looks like all snow to me): 1001. 73. 1.3 -2.1 45.2 4.0 1000. 95. 1.1 -2.4 46.9 4.8 975. 298. -0.7 -3.4 50.6 6.2 950. 505. -1.5 -5.5 57.7 7.3 925. 717. -1.7 -6.0 65.3 6.8 900. 936. -0.9 -5.6 68.8 5.9 850. 1391. -1.9 -5.7 75.4 4.1 800. 1872. -3.2 -6.2 58.8 2.5 750. 2383. -3.4 -5.9 170.6 0.8 700. 2928. -4.1 -5.2 216.7 5.2 1000. 73. 0.0 -1.0 15.8 4.4 1000. 74. 0.2 -1.0 17.1 5.2 975. 276. -1.2 -2.5 26.9 8.1 950. 483. -2.2 -3.7 38.3 8.8 925. 695. -2.0 -4.2 47.8 8.1 900. 913. -1.3 -3.8 53.4 7.6 850. 1368. -2.1 -3.8 53.9 7.0 800. 1849. -3.1 -4.4 59.1 5.3 750. 2360. -3.5 -4.3 95.4 2.6 700. 2905. -4.6 -5.2 180.7 2.8 997. 73. -0.8 -1.4 5.9 5.3 975. 263. -1.7 -2.6 15.1 10.9 950. 469. -2.2 -3.6 23.1 12.8 925. 681. -1.2 -3.2 26.3 12.4 900. 900. -0.7 -3.1 27.2 11.7 850. 1356. -1.9 -3.6 26.3 11.0 800. 1838. -3.2 -4.7 24.5 9.3 750. 2348. -4.1 -5.2 29.1 5.6 700. 2891. -5.4 -5.9 60.3 1.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brianonymous Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 If I recall the phases of forum winter forecasting correctly - after a good model run - the next phase will be a model run that destroys all hopes and dreams, and winter cancels thrown up all over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm actually having a hard time finding any ensemble members that screw us too badly at 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The GFS is warm at 78 hrs with the zero line at the surface north of the Mason Dixon line. However by 84hrs when the evaporation cooling gets going and the low starts really deepening and turn the winds to northerly, the temps collapse. It remains a really tricky forecast. I doubt it is an all snow even but it could be a mostly snow event. Right now I'd still be very circumspect about making any calls about the system but then I tend to like to wait unless we have a feb 5th or Dec 19th type of event. You err on the side of caution, Wes, which is perfectly understandable all things considered. I fully admit my lack of training and knowledge of forecasting, but just based on watching the models and reading all the discussion (especially among the mets here), it's obvious that this is an incredibly tumultuous situation. But basded on the models and discussion, I'm starting to think this is a mostly snow event for me in the near western DC suburbs, and very well could be for DC also. With the event slowing down, I'm feeling better about the "new" high building in and keeping us a little colder and keeping the low from coming too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 i think it probably cools back for a decent portion of the precip here, but it's dicey. any closer and it could be too warm. there is like a very small zone of big opportunity it seems. Yes no doubt. There is needle and we seem to be almost threading it but it is precarious. I think I just misread your post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'm actually having a hard time finding any ensemble members that screw us too badly at 84. There are two of them -- P005 and P010 at 78 that would be giving us rain. P010 would be rain still east of I-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yes no doubt. There is needle and we seem to be almost threading it but it is precarious. I think I just misread your post. Just very recently IAN has taken up sewing, which should help us greatly in this upcoming event . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I'd start paying more attention to the sref than the gefs ensembles. The latter is going to spread the precip too far west. The former have better resolution and probably have a better handling of the thermal fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It looks like there is fairly good agreement. Good to hear. Of course, we're in a situation in which smal perturbations could bring us a less-than-ideal event, but the ensembles being in good agreement seems to show that the GFS is starting to "feel" that those possible perturbations are becoming less likely. At least that's my rational - if uneducated - take on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 There are two of them -- P005 and P010 at 78 that would be giving us rain. P010 would be rain still east of I-95 Yeah, But I would def take our chances with these any day. Way better than anything else this year has looked 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 FWIW... UKMET at 72 -- http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ukm/2011012312/slp12.png Then goes to this at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 *snip* Pulling out every model, I see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Pulling out every model, I see? Each one that looks nice But the FIM does look like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Euro at 42 has 1012 low in GOM near LA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Each one that looks nice But the FIM does look like the GFS What is the FIM? I've never seen it before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 What is the FIM? I've never seen it before. http://fim.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 What is the FIM? I've never seen it before. w/that statement coming from you, does it even matter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 What is the FIM? I've never seen it before. It is an experimental model that is supposedly one day going to replace the GFS, i think it uses alot of the GFS data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 54 Euro 1008 L east of New Orleans... apparently reading that the trough is not digging as much as it was on the 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 hr 54 northern branch involvement is way less, trough is still pos as it nears miss river 1008 low mouth miss river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It is an experimental model that is supposedly one day going to replace the GFS, i think it uses alot of the GFS data. But it sounds like it's coordinate system is much different. A hybrid isentropic coordinate system is a bit different than the GFS. I know Louis Uccellini used to be really excited about such a coordinate system but I don't remember the specifics of why. Maybe DTK can comment on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 1008 L near Pensacola FL at 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 12z GFS Ensemble Mean 2m data 78hrs:32 line is from Hagerstown to York to Allentown 84hrs is right thru the Major Cities Colder than 0z and Warmer than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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