Dr No Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Just some thoughts from the 12Z GFS/NAM The storm is slowed so much it almost phases with the "kicker". An interaction with the kicker may serve to pull the storm up the coast a bit more and reduce the OTS risk. The slower speed allows the northern impulse on Tuesday to outrun the storm and shore up the cold air a little bit more over the NE. But, I'd prefer it not to slow down any more as the northern stream has not been overly kind to us this winter. Clearly now a later Wedenesday to Wedensday night storm. 1) 48 hours worth of weekend model watching to only gain 24 hours of proximity to the event 2) It keeps the storm out in that day 3-4 range which models have a tendency to flip and produce some wild solutions. We are no closer to understanding the setup of the storm than yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 FWIW and sort of surprising since he's been trash talking this storm for days now, but DT's first call has 6 to 12 inches knocking on the door step of DC/Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 12z GGEM is a 984mb bomb near Philly at 84hrs, looks north of 0z. Still likes the inland bomb scenario. It will be interesting to see where the EURO fits in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 WOW the track of the 500mb low is perfect for Northern VA on the GGEM - Atlanta to about 75 - 100 miles SSE of DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Still likes the inland bomb scenario. It will be interesting to see where the EURO fits in. Yeah, 0z GGEM had a 988mb like 100miles east of the Maryland Beaches, maybe like a 150-200 mile difference, but it would be a difference between snow and rain possibly, it would be interesting, still it seems like a average of all models would take a good track with marginal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 WOW the track of the 500mb low is perfect for Northern VA on the GGEM - Atlanta to about 75 - 100 miles SSE of DCA. I assume far too warm though... Hey Ian could you give a run down on temp profiles for latest GFS? Obviously 850 line is not telling the story if it's too warm for snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 WOW the track of the 500mb low is perfect for Northern VA on the GGEM - Atlanta to about 75 - 100 miles SSE of DCA. With a inland runner track? I dont think so, if we had high pressure still in position, it would get interesting, this run looks like Rain to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I assume far too warm though... Hey Ian could you give a run down on temp profiles for latest GFS? Obviously 850 line is not telling the story if it's too warm for snow... GFS is not too warm for snow....read the thread starting at about 10:30 am....12 Z GFS run is snow for many, but issue this time is not much precip for western areas, not temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 12z GGEM shows a couple hours of freezing rain in northern maryland west of the cities, the rest of us is all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 i hope that didnt take too long ninja.. You are an evil troll since the weenies all think everything you say is fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 This run is ugly, everyone up to like Albany, Boston, Nashua, basically all of New Hampshire, and Bangor even changes to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GFS ENS still look nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The GGEM is irrelevant if the GFS, NAM, and Euro mostly agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 12z GGEM shows a couple hours of freezing rain in northern maryland west of the cities, the rest of us is all rain. Ninj....we get it...it's one model...relax, get some food ready for the games Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GFS ENS still look nice. VERY nice....cold w lots of QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yeah the Canadian has been pretty bullish about further inland tracks all year. This doesn't surprise me and actually affirms my belief that a solid H% track is possibly in order. Can anyone say something scientific to synthetically prop up my hopes for some cold air required for this baby? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The GGEM is irrelevant if the GFS, NAM, and Euro mostly agree. strongly agree dec 15/07 was the last time the GGEM beat that concensus. can happen, but extremely rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I assume far too warm though... Hey Ian could you give a run down on temp profiles for latest GFS? Obviously 850 line is not telling the story if it's too warm for snow... I didn't say it was too warm for snow, just still warm. Verbatim we'd probably have issues before the back end in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 GFS ENS still look nice. Could someone post GFS ens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I didn't say it was too warm for snow, just still warm. Verbatim we'd probably have issues before the back end in DC. On the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 12z GFS Ensemble Mean is slightly east of 0z, very slightly cooler in 850mb and 4mb stronger at 84hrs vs 0z 96hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 12z GFS Ensemble Mean is slightly east of 0z, very slightly cooler in 850mb and 4mb stronger at 84hrs vs 0z 96hrs And what does that tell you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 And what does that tell you? Ninja can tell time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 And what does that tell you? looks like a lot of snow. The canadian however is a buzz kill Ukmet looks good though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 And what does that tell you? It tells you you should look at the members to see where the mean came from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On the GFS? The GFS is warm at 78 hrs with the zero line at the surface north of the Mason Dixon line. However by 84hrs when the evaporation cooling gets going and the low starts really deepening and turn the winds to northerly, the temps collapse. It remains a really tricky forecast. I doubt it is an all snow even but it could be a mostly snow event. Right now I'd still be very circumspect about making any calls about the system but then I tend to like to wait unless we have a feb 5th or Dec 19th type of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Looks like the NWS is, understandably, very unconfident. But they do seem to be siding with a warmer solution. Seems like they have less faith in the GFS on this one but I can't be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 looks like a lot of snow. The canadian however is a buzz kill Ukmet looks good though Meh. Canadien not killing my buzz. When has it led the way this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 "could be a mostly snow event." Coming from you Wes, can't help but get my hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 It tells you you should look at the members to see where the mean came from. I think that there might be some folks in this thread that need to read that again and again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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