Amped Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 What in the hell happened at h5 between 108 and 120...wtf Troff stopped flattened out. Look at H5 heights look at heights instead of vorticity A Similar thing happened in the blizzard of 83, but the whole setup was further east and the troff stayed intact long enough for an secs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Troff stopped flattened out. Look at H5 heights look at heights instead of vorticity A Similar thing happened in the blizzard of 83, but the whole setup was further east and the troff stayed intact long enough for an secs. yea GFS is having issues, so is the Euro, with all the vorts involved. Just when one is starting to amplify another comes into the trough and instead of amplifying it kills off the first and dives the second in, then does the same again. Its a weird solution and I don't buy it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This might be the most legit threat of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 18z GFS ensemble mean precip for the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I believe teh GFS is holding back too much energy at 500 southwest for way too long just spitting out bits and pieces. I honestly don't think that southwest energy is just going to sit there and hold everything back. GFS has done this before at this range, and it rarely ever happens like that. We'll have to see how it trends with that big vort in the southwest. I do like the position of the High pressure though, looks like it gets locked in place nicely for our prolonged flizzard event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I believe teh GFS is holding back too much energy at 500 southwest for way too long just spitting out bits and pieces. I honestly don't think that southwest energy is just going to sit there and hold everything back. GFS has done this before at this range, and it rarely ever happens like that. We'll have to see how it trends with that big vort in the southwest. I do like the position of the High pressure though, looks like it gets locked in place nicely for our prolonged flizzard event. Season trend though is for us to get screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Season trend though is for us to get screwed. Thanks. I don't think any of us were aware of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 JMA looks promising for next Tuesday but sorry, could'nt copy it for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 JMA looks promising for next Tuesday but sorry, could'nt copy it for some reason. Okay, roger that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GFS is a mess. I mean, it could happen like that, but it just looks screwy at h5 IMO. h7 looks spot on - should we flip a coin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Not bad that would be a much quicker start of the event than the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Not bad NAM has me intrigued. Certainly has that signal that the cold air isn't going anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The storm at the end of the NAM's range continues to blow off the Carolina coast, the northern stream shortwave should phase with it over extreme E NE and cause it to become a massive 50/50 low possibly setting the stage for a big event next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 that would be a much quicker start of the event than the other models Not really, models just take their sweet time digging that energy in and in some ways hold it up waiting for the next vort to dive in. It might be error...models have trouble figuring out which vort to amplify. IF it is that first one we are golden. The other options is if that storm off NC can amplify more and become a sudo 50/50 we could hold the cold in longer and then it wouldnt matter as much if it takes its time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 CONGRATULATIONS OUTER BANKS! Now that is a nice rogue storm for them: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 snow into va at 120 hi looks to be in a good spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 We need to get the GFS to key in on that first s/w. Looks ok at 90 hours..but in the next few frames is where the GFS usually goes full Fozz on us and starts to look stupid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 CONGRATULATIONS OUTER BANKS! Now that is a nice rogue storm for them: The NADS! I'd say an outer banks snowstorm fits the bill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 snow into va at 120 hi looks to be in a good spot I'm out to 114, the High is in a perfect spot, but the H5..meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 still all snow at 132 ric to dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 snow into va at 120 hi looks to be in a good spot you said that at 18Z I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 you said that at 18Z I think copy and paste shhhhhhhhhhhh! trends my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Think precip might be underdone? Looks like the handleing of the PDII Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Think precip might be underdone? Looks like the handleing of the PDII you blaspheme! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The setup resembles this past storm only colder. BTW, it probably is snowing monday AM w/ temps in the teens- so we might counteract the roasting ground temps and sun rays of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 ots minor storm for the most part still plenty of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Well, it certainly looks better...I;m just not sure what's driving the "storm" at 120-132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 this might be our best hope.. light snow for a lengthy period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Well, it certainly looks better...I;m just not sure what's driving the "storm" at 120-132 you- put it on the bus and fire it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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