ravensrule Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 On 1/26/2011 at 5:59 AM, Midlo Snow Maker said: My bad sorry i could not control my excitement. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 On 1/26/2011 at 6:00 AM, mitchnick said: make that .7+" as snow And if the EURO is a little warm like it usually is we can get 10", not to shabby at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 pretty solid shift se compared to 12z of the northern extent.. looks nam/gfs'ish for new england - people in pa not happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 On 1/26/2011 at 6:01 AM, Ian said: pretty solid shift se compared to 12z of the northern extent.. looks nam/gfs'ish for new england - people in pa not happy No complaints here, but I'm on the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 if phl has a ji he is losing his cool right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 On 1/26/2011 at 6:01 AM, Ian said: pretty solid shift se compared to 12z of the northern extent.. looks nam/gfs'ish for new england - people in pa not happy It is our turn so i have a hard time feeling bad, even though i would not mind them getting hit as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
insanegrenade Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Is the storm really colder and slower on the EURO guys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 On 1/26/2011 at 6:02 AM, Ian said: if phl has a ji he is losing his cool right now How much for Philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 On 1/26/2011 at 6:03 AM, Fozz said: How much for Philly? .75 he means father north and west in PA i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I could sit and look at this map for a few hours http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h24&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 On 1/26/2011 at 6:03 AM, Fozz said: How much for Philly? ,88", but it has some rain/mix in there too, guessing at .1-.15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCWeatherGuy Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 So, it sounds like the summary of the totality of the 0Z runs for DC is that we're right on (or very close to) the .75-1" / 1"-1.25" cutoff line on every single model, and every model agrees that the good majority of the precip will be snow. Fair? Since things are a bit quieter, can we have a remedial weenie talk about ratios? I know the default is 10 or 12 to 1. What are some of the factors that significantly impact the ratio question? I know people have been saying this storm may be more in the 8:1 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The map out for 24 hours (0Z Thursday) seems like it's the coldest Euro run in the past few runs. Is that correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Mitch how about IAD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 On 1/26/2011 at 6:05 AM, mitchnick said: I could sit and look at this map for a few hours http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h24&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Mitch just curious what are the surface temps for BWI throughout the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 On 1/26/2011 at 6:07 AM, DCWeatherGuy said: So, it sounds like the summary of the totality of the 0Z runs for DC is that we're right on (or very close to) the .75-1" / 1"-1.25" cutoff line on every single model, and every model agrees that the good majority of the precip will be snow. Fair? Since things are a bit quieter, can we have a remedial weenie talk about ratios? I know the default is 10 or 12 to 1. What are some of the factors that significantly impact the ratio question? I know people have been saying this storm may be more in the 8:1 range. The 850's have been getting colder so it should be 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Still potential for thundersnow based on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 On 1/26/2011 at 6:01 AM, Ian said: pretty solid shift se compared to 12z of the northern extent.. looks nam/gfs'ish for new england - people in pa not happy I saw the surface and H5 charts though...it didnt shift SE it just shifted the deform band south. If the track of the euro is correct I call bullsht on its back edge location. It has the back edge the same place as the NAM/GFS but has the low 40 miles west tucked in right against the coast. If that track is correct it is badly under doing the deform band back into south central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 On 1/26/2011 at 6:07 AM, ravensrule said: Mitch just curious what are the surface temps for BWI throughout the storm. during snow, max is .5C or around 32.5-33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 On 1/26/2011 at 6:09 AM, VAsnowlvr82 said: Still potential for thundersnow based on the euro? With the PV max tucked in so close to the coast and the steep lapse rates aloft--yes. Throw in strong frontogenesis through the CCB and that can yield other types of strong meso forcings including slantwise convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Grother IAD is .96 and mostly, if not all snow probably more snow than BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 On 1/26/2011 at 6:12 AM, mitchnick said: during snow, max is .5C or around 32.5-33 Excellent, thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 On 1/26/2011 at 6:13 AM, mitchnick said: Grother IAD is .96 and mostly, if not all snow probably more snow than BWI Thanks much appreciated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 On 1/26/2011 at 6:07 AM, gymengineer said: The map out for 24 hours (0Z Thursday) seems like it's the coldest Euro run in the past few runs. Is that correct? yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Mitch....FDK? Thanks again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 On 1/26/2011 at 6:12 AM, baroclinic_instability said: With the PV max tucked in so close to the coast and the steep lapse rates aloft--yes. Throw in strong frontogenesis through the CCB and that can yield other types of strong meso forcings including slantwise convection. What is slantwise convection?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 On 1/26/2011 at 6:14 AM, Solo2 said: Mitch....FDK? Thanks again. .79" looks to be all snow also looks like on radar you have some snow on your doorstep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 On 1/26/2011 at 6:18 AM, mitchnick said: .79" looks to be all snow also looks like on radar you have some snow on your doorstep What does it show for Northern Balto County, say Parkton to White Hall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 know some things overlap but please put obs/radar discussion etc in the obs thread: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 The local model from lwx is pretty insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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