ravensrule Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 6:07 PM, Ian said: the 500 track looks pretty uber and maybe even a smidge better here than 0z which matters more than qpf imo. You are turning into an UBER weenie and i LOVE it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This storm has become so 09-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 6:09 PM, Kmlwx said: DT just went 3-6ish in DC proper - 6-12 not far to the north and west. seems like a pretty good call for now. im fairly convinced we'll get 3-6 here at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowpocalypse Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 6:01 PM, Quasievil said: For those close to or east of the bay this east trend with the 0c line is encouraging but still think it makes us borderline until the ULL really gets going. Should hold down our accumulations there. And YES .. that's an IMBY post (I live in Annapolis) but there are many others on the eastern shore who want to know too. Haven't had to much time to sift through every post. How does Elkton do per the 12z runs, just a guess would suffice.Thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Weenies rejoice. Then please take it to the obs thread. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 109 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011 DCZ001-MDZ010-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ036>039-050>057-502-260215- /O.EXB.KLWX.WS.A.0002.110126T1900Z-110127T0900Z/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES- ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE- MADISON-ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK- FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- KING GEORGE-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE... ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...CHARLOTTESVILLE... CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA... FALLS CHURCH...FREDERICKSBURG 109 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...BECOMING ALL SNOW DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. * ACCUMULATIONS...5 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE. * TIMING...SNOW STARTING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * TEMPERATURES...MID TO UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY...DROPPING TO THE LOWER 30S BY THE EVENING. THE UPPER 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WEDNESDAY...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH WEDNESDAY EVENING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Good luck guys. I live over in SBY, so it looks like a wet inch or two that will melt on the way out. Congrats to the DC crowd though, you guys got burned on 12/26 when we hit the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 6:09 PM, FiveAlarmPhotography said: Please stop posting IMBY posts!! Actually my post is more or less comparing the variation between the NAM, EURO and GFS. The NAM puts the heaviest snow just East of DC and the EURO and GFS slighly west. Which is better in this timeframe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 UKIE was very nice http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKMET_12z/ukloop.html#picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 wes post http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2011/01/odds_increasing_for_heavy_wet.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 qpf range from the models for back here seem to be a low of .58 on up to whatever the GGEM was spitting out. Sounds good...I think..I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 At this point its going to be tough to narrow down where the heaviest band is going to set up. We have one model insisting its south east of DC, we have another saying its west/northwest. I think the best guess is probably out towards Dulles but at this point it will be really hard to narrow down the details given the slight model divergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 6:14 PM, yoda said: UKIE was very nice http://www.meteo.psu...op.html#picture Excellent consistency among the models. About time we have that this winter! The details that need to be ironed out are the ones that are the hardest to forecast...banding, possible convection, snow crystal growth, etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 6:16 PM, leesburg 04 said: qpf range from the models for back here seem to be a low of .58 on up to whatever the GGEM was spitting out. Sounds good...I think..I guess Meh... fringed and red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Since I can never see the Euro, it's not always easy to try and compare it to the others. So, someone who can see it, how does its qpf compare to that of the GFS? I can see most others. Come to think of it, I'd also like to know how the UK compares to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 6:19 PM, PhineasC said: Meh... fringed and red flag. There have to be others that we have missed...I got most of Ians Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 6:10 PM, Snowpocalypse said: Haven't had to much time to sift through every post. How does Elkton do per the 12z runs, just a guess would suffice.Thx The bufkit out of Kilg is giving the area 1'+ starting around 2100z with all snow, ratios around 15:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 6:15 PM, Ian said: wes post http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang/2011/01/odds_increasing_for_heavy_wet.html Wow UBER conservative Wes gives me 4-8" with a 45% chance of more than 8" i am excited . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 6:20 PM, winterwxluvr said: Since I can never see the Euro, it's not always easy to try and compare it to the others. So, someone who can see it, how does its qpf compare to that of the GFS? I can see most others. Come to think of it, I'd also like to know how the UK compares to the GFS. UKMET was posted by Yoda just above. It's on ewall. Looks like a good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The 12z ARW and NMM are only out to 33hrs but the warmest part of the storm has passed at that point and the 0 850 line never makes it past BWI for the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The UKMET is gorgeous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 6:19 PM, PhineasC said: Meh... fringed and red flag. too bad west always does better than east. i expect the banding to shift from my southeast to leesburg's house without even considering stopping over my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 6:15 PM, Ian said: wes post http://voices.washin..._heavy_wet.html Great read! The solid and dashed lines meet almost exactly over my house in Howard County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 6:22 PM, Ian said: too bad west always does better than east. i expect the banding to shift from my southeast to leesburg's house without even considering stopping over my head. I'm sure leesburg will do better and somehow manchester or somewhere near there will become the new snow capital of the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 6:21 PM, biodhokie said: The bufkit out of Kilg is giving the area 1'+ starting around 2100z with all snow, ratios around 15:1 15:1 ratios are NOT happening with this storm. 8-10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 6:21 PM, Kmlwx said: UKMET was posted by Yoda just above. It's on ewall. Looks like a good hit. Hey, thanks for that. I knew that the UK was on that site, I guess I had just forgotten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 6:23 PM, usedtobe said: I'm sure leesburg will do better and somehow manchester or somewhere near there will become the new snow capital of the east. There is ALWAYS a mega band over Manchester to FDK to Leesburg when the models bullseye DC to Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 6:23 PM, usedtobe said: I'm sure leesburg will do better and somehow manchester or somewhere near there will become the new snow capital of the east. maybe vortmax will chime in at some pt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 HiRes WRFs like the NAM's idea of having the precip max south/east of the I-95 corridor. 850 temps look as cold or colder than the globals and NAM. Precip in the cities looks comparable to the consensus, but less than the consensus to the north of the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On 1/25/2011 at 6:25 PM, Ian said: maybe vortmax will chime in at some pt I bet he is really worried about the QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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