tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 10:07 PM, stormtracker said: WHAT?!?! On 1/24/2011 at 10:07 PM, baroclinic_instability said: 8-12"? I think that would be a stretch on the GFS verbatim--its thermals are not that good. ill post the map hold on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 10:06 PM, tombo82685 said: going off my sv snowfall maps for the gfs, dc and area gets bullseyed with 8-12 on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I really think people should be banned for the continual "here" IMBY posts without taking 3 seconds to put their location in the profile....it is terrible annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Does anyone have the surface temps for 48 and 54? Certainly looks like it crashes at 850 in a hurry based on the progression of the 0c 850 line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 10:02 PM, baroclinic_instability said: Is that an actual location or is that named after you? The 6k mountain near DC? Just a poor attempt at humor, my town is on a ridge that is about the highest elevations in this area. My apartment is at exactly 1000 ft and peaks along the ridge get up to around 1150 in some places just to my northeast and southwest. Its a nice added bonus for me in storms like this and helps out really nicely when temps are marginal. In truth the name is a bit of a knock off from eastern when Marcus used to call this area Mt. Vortmax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 finish 18z here or new thread time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 10:08 PM, winterymix said: The GFS shows some snow from hour 54 to about hour 64 in the Balto/Wash area. 850 temps are marginally OK and the 540 thickness slides south and east. I sometimes wonder if we are looking at the same model runs. 850s are plenty cold and certainly not marginal. Did you mean surface temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 10:08 PM, winterymix said: The GFS shows some snow from hour 54 to about hour 64 in the Balto/Wash area. 850 temps are marginally OK and the 540 thickness slides south and east. Please keep us updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 10:10 PM, Ellinwood said: finish 18z here or new thread time? go for ithttp://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/10601-psuhoffman-storm-the-pre-reckoning/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 courtesy of stormvista Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 10:05 PM, Ellinwood said: Let's see if we can break 50 pages in 24 hours 18z GFS praises: (Image courtesy of MDA/EarthSat) as long as it gives sne more than us it might be legit. im on the verge of tingles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 lol.........another HECS for SW Connecticut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yeah, gonna call BS on those maps. 18z GFS was nice, but let's not get carried away. I think we have a decent shot at 2 to 4 at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Right about the snow sounding at 54--but that is near the end. Snow is looking like a great bet--I am mainly thinking rain to heavy wet snow. Hard to accumulate that wet slop after it has been raining for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Wow looking at those GFS snow maps it must have the surface cooling just as the heavy ULL precip starts. Would be an unbelievably awesome scenario if that really happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 More GFS snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 10:13 PM, stormtracker said: Yeah, gonna call BS on those maps. 18z GFS was nice, but let's not get carried away. I think we have a decent shot at 2 to 4 at this point. I somewhat agree for now.... But never underestimate the surprise of 4 hours of heavy (albeit wet) snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Phineas asks Quote I sometimes wonder if we are looking at the same model runs. 850s are plenty cold and certainly not marginal. Did you mean surface temps? You are correct, sir. The surface is marginal and as Wes pointed out, the remainder is a snow sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It's going to precip. Way better than the past storms, when we weren't even sure of that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 10:13 PM, stormtracker said: Yeah, gonna call BS on those maps. 18z GFS was nice, but let's not get carried away. I think we have a decent shot at 2 to 4 at this point. This. 2-4" would be a VERY good scenario, and folks shouldn't get super greedy because of one set of 18Z runs. Quite honestly these snow maps being produced are ridiculous--and snow falling from the sky doesn't equate to snow sticking on the ground or even the grass for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I don't know about those snow maps. here are the soundings at 48hrs and 54. the latter clearly is snow, the former rain. somewhere between the two times is the changeover. The srefs have been implying around 21Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looks to be an amazing storm for the Northeast based on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 10:16 PM, usedtobe said: I don't know about those snow maps. here are the soundings at 48hrs and 54. the latter clearly is snow, the former rain. somewhere between the two times is the changeover. The srefs have been implying around 21Z. All snow indeed--but that last sounding is deceiving since it has a, just guessing, 500 foot layer above freezing. Depends on how accurate we are taking these soundings, but taken as is--would be heavy wet snow mixed with light rain/snow if it let up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Tommy T the best met in Balt just said rain to snow wed night and accumulations loook "likely" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 10:16 PM, usedtobe said: I don't know about those snow maps. here are the soundings at 48hrs and 54. the latter clearly is snow, the former rain. somewhere between the two times is the changeover. The srefs have been implying around 21Z. Wes, i have 3 hr increment gfs maps. Your correct on the timing, its right around hr 51, prob hr 52 or around 21 or 22z. From hr 48-51 dc gets .25 qpf as rain...hr 51-57 dc gets .75-1 qpf as frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 i would hesitate to throw numbers around yet. if the gfs evolution is right 2-4 is probably low as a top end even in dc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxLover Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The 2nd max that Stormtracker mentioned, is that the artic disturbance phasing that ups the ante? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Colonel Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 10:16 PM, usedtobe said: I don't know about those snow maps. here are the soundings at 48hrs and 54. the latter clearly is snow, the former rain. somewhere between the two times is the changeover. The srefs have been implying around 21Z. Thats an impressive warm up between 700 -850mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'll digress to Euro since I've had a chance to look at MOS and skewts for my location in a nutshell, hrs. 60-66 starts as rain and then changes to snow so some unknown portion of .61" qpf is snow; unknown because they are 6-hour increments hrs. 66-72 a total of .40" qpf falls as all snow so, predictions by NAM or GFS showing 4-6" of snow around BWI are supported by the Euro fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 10:26 PM, mitchnick said: I'll digress to Euro since I've had a chance to look at MOS and skewts for my location in a nutshell, hrs. 60-66 starts as rain and then changes to snow so some unknown portion of .61" qpf is snow; unknown because they are 6-hour increments hrs. 66-72 a total of .40" qpf falls as all snow so, predictions by NAM or GFS showing 4-6" of snow around BWI are supported by the Euro fwiw So Ellinwood's first map of 4-8" from yesterday in our area is looking mighty impressive right about now . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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