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The Psuhoffman Storm


Ji

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  On 1/24/2011 at 6:23 PM, H2O said:

For 2 days out and almost complete model concensus things look pretty good when considering the season so far

That's not saying much but we could have a period with reduced visibilities from snow and have snow accumulate on grassy surfaces especially the western guys and gals. Ji should be excited.

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  On 1/24/2011 at 6:28 PM, usedtobe said:

That's not saying much but we could have a period with reduced visibilities from snow and have snow accumulate on grassy surfaces especially the western guys and gals. Ji should be excited.

You and I will not see as much if any but a brief period of +sn at the tail end would be nice

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  On 1/24/2011 at 6:30 PM, weathercoins said:

Will the temps being in the 40's tomorrow significantly affect ground temps., or will they be cold enough from today?

Additionally, decent chances of a watch in the afternoon package?

I doubt it.. probably more like tomorrow morning's package

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  On 1/24/2011 at 6:32 PM, yoda said:

I doubt it.. probably more like tomorrow morning's package

i'd put them up for parts of the area later today, we'll be about 36 hrs out. i think there's plenty of continuity to say folks well nw are going to have a good shot at hitting warning snow.

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  On 1/24/2011 at 6:35 PM, WxUSAF said:

How's the Euro look in the long range? Specifically the clipper on Sunday and the much rumored DT Facebook Storm #2 in early Feb?

only out to 174... dry so far. clipper goes thru central new england.

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  On 1/24/2011 at 6:33 PM, Ian said:

i'd put them up for parts of the area later today, we'll be about 36 hrs out. i think there's plenty of continuity to say folks well nw are going to have a good shot at hitting warning snow.

I think Trixie and company have a great shot a warning criteria snow. Even farther in like Leesburg and Frederick MD have a decent shot especially the higher terrain just to the west.

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I'd like to go with the 6z nam, euro busting high on temps solution... but hasn't the euro only busted on temp forecasts this winter when there was strong high pressure in place , as well as in situations of CAD? Models could easily be underdoing the projected warmup ahead of the low. GFS seems to be catching onto it.

I do like the fact that DT has me as rain. According to DT final calls I have at least 20" so far..I am sitting at about 3" this winter!!:whistle:

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  On 1/24/2011 at 6:38 PM, jpljr77 said:

So what kind of elevation are we talking, just out of curiosity? For example, Silver Spring is definitely not West, but it's at 300+ ft (I'm at 320). Is that enough to overcome the Easterness?

I think Silver Spring definitely has a better chance of getting a few inches than, say, DCA.

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I'm really trying to follow along and evaluate data on my own, but I fall into a kind of "no-man's land" on these boards. I don't find a ton of information on my area in the Mid Atlantic or PA forums and don't have enough knowledge to make my own predictions. Any insight into how N Baltimore County/ Southern York County is looking now that the models seem to be coming to a consensus? Thanks!

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  On 1/24/2011 at 6:40 PM, Crazy4Wx said:

So how badly am I goosed here in Annapolis?

Each degree makes a HUGE difference. I don't think you should assume you are screwed, rather just you have a higher chance of being screwed than points west. 3-4 degree shift, which certainly happens somewhat often, gives you snow...?

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  On 1/24/2011 at 6:41 PM, JPete said:

I'm really trying to follow along and evaluate data on my own, but I fall into a kind of "no-man's land" on these boards. I don't find a ton of information on my area in the Mid Atlantic or PA forums and don't have enough knowledge to make my own predictions. Any insight into how N Baltimore County/ Southern York County is looking now that the models seem to be coming to a consensus? Thanks!

You and I will both see the blue line in the sky. It will be over my house and slightly off the SE at your place.

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  On 1/24/2011 at 6:42 PM, wxtrix said:

we are too far away from this storm for IMBY questions like this. the probabilities and possibilities have been laid out by Ian, Wes, and USAFwx. this kind of stuff will get you 5 posted or suspended. read through the thread.

Totally didn't mean it as an IMBY question, that's just the only elevations I know offhand. I am genuinely curious about what kind of elevation change impacts borderline events like this...in the abstract, even, rather than specific to Wednesday.

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It's way too early to start talking about accumulations as they will depend on the surface temp, when the rain changes to snow and on the intensity of the precipitation. Right now all those things are up in the air. All we can say for sure is we're getting lots of precip, people living west are more likely to get bigger accumulations than people living east and that right now the track of the 500 low would favor some snow at the back end for most of us. At least that's my opinion of what we know right now.

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  On 1/24/2011 at 6:37 PM, usedtobe said:

I think Trixie and company have a great shot a warning criteria snow. Even farther in like Leesburg and Frederick MD have a decent shot especially the higher terrain just to the west.

I'm dreading that I live in the valley now....we seem to have been under progged temps all winter though. So we'll see. It is going to be very close.

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Very nice consistency among the 12z GFS ensemble members. They're all a bit faster and a bit farther east than the Op, leading to a colder/snowier solution. Ensemble mean looks to keep areas JUST north/west of I-95 all (or nearly all) frozen. 850mb 0C line looks to stay on or south of the cities for the duration of the precip, it's the surface temps that are the issue. Surface 0C line looks to get as far north/west as a Winchester/Hagerstown line, and then falls back.

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  On 1/24/2011 at 6:50 PM, usedtobe said:

It's way too early to start talking about accumulations as they will depend on the surface temp, when the rain changes to snow and on the intensity of the precipitation. Right now all those things are up in the air. All we can say for sure is we're getting lots of precip, people living west are more likely to get bigger accumulations than people living east and that right now the track of the 500 low would favor some snow at the back end for most of us. At least that's my opinion of what we know right now.

Thank you, Wes. Keep up the great work and analysis... will you have a CWG blog today?

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