thesnowsknows Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 5:14 AM, Ian said: gfs and nam most keep warming up for tuesday around here.. mainly upper 40s now. Yeah just noticed that. That's pretty scary. I am hoping overnight lows will bring us down a bit before the storm hits, then precip and dynamics may take care of the rest. Any chance of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GGEM is significantly east from 12Z, especially 0C 850's (like 100 miles east) This is significantly significant. It's the biggest mover of the evening. I like the UKMET as the eventual solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 waiting for the Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 5:26 AM, thesnowsknows said: waiting for the Euro... great post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 5:14 AM, Ian said: gfs and nam most keep warming up for tuesday around here.. mainly upper 40s now. Great! The rain now has a shot of sinking in and not running off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 5:22 AM, weathervswife said: GGEM is significantly east from 12Z, especially 0C 850's (like 100 miles east) This is significantly significant. It's the biggest mover of the evening. I like the UKMET as the eventual solution. meet you at wintergreen? looks like the best spot so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 5:26 AM, thesnowsknows said: waiting for the Euro... It already came in...shows rain. School on Wednesday for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 5:30 AM, Midlo Snow Maker said: meet you at wintergreen? looks like the best spot so far Hey, this gave me a good idea. I should call in sick to work, and we should meet at Wintergreen. Stay tuned as I have multiple sick days to use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelScott Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 5:26 AM, thesnowsknows said: waiting for the Euro... You're out of your element Donny. From the LYH perspective, the 00z GFS was alright, but really for us to have any good chance we're going to need the low to strengthen more rapidly and be more consolidated, as opposed to the elongated looks from the NAM and GFS. And/or have the surface low slow down somewhat to allow the H5 low to catch up...the H5 low is really our best chance down here. Ensemble mean looked great of course, and the proximity to the OP GFS is a good sign as far as track goes. My personal bet for the Euro is either a slight shift west or hold serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 4:38 AM, Ji said: One weenie in the Philly board Congrats the nogaps for kicking the Gfs ass when the storm is still 2 days away He's been humping the NOGAPS and trashing the GFS/NAM for weeks. Good for him, i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 5:30 AM, Midlo Snow Maker said: meet you at wintergreen? looks like the best spot so far I'd like to be included in this as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Any news from the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 looks like it's wanting to play the split the low game at 60.. 850s match 12z thus far so kinda warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 6:02 AM, Snow36 said: Any news from the euro? Out to 66 right now... in about 10 more minutes it'll have most of the storm for our area sized up. Rain again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 low is elongated at 66, 500 is not as good i dont think.. 850s warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 storm passes closer almost touches s md again.. warmer by a bit thruout im sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 500 track actually pretty good, guess it was just slower. temps suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 How much QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 6:10 AM, Dr No said: How much QPF? a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 6:09 AM, Ian said: 500 track actually pretty good, guess it was just slower. temps suck. Basically it is looking more and more likely we will be getting almost all rain out of this . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 excellent on the QPF front.... Exciting storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 6:13 AM, ravensrule said: Basically it is looking more and more likely we will be getting almost all rain out of this . go west young man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Verbatim: 78h looks very sexy on the Euro with the back-end precip, but just a few degrees to warm for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 6:14 AM, Dr No said: excellent on the QPF front. 1"+ back to blue ridge.. dc area prob 1.5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Basically Philly North is going to get one foot of heavy wet snow while we get pounded with driving rain . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 6:14 AM, Ian said: go west young man. Problem is i do not want to sleep with Phin or Ji so i am sort of stuck here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 ku p 725 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 6:14 AM, ravensrule said: Basically Philly North is going to get one foot of heavy wet snow while we get pounded with driving rain . What would make them cold enough for snow if Baltomre is toasty in a driving rain? There's no HP to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelScott Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 6:14 AM, Ian said: 1"+ back to blue ridge.. dc area prob 1.5? I imagine it's mostly rain for LYH? At least the NE gets hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 On 1/24/2011 at 6:17 AM, Dr No said: What would make them cold enough for snow if Baltomre is toasty in a driving rain? There's no HP to the north. I do not have Eueo maps but i think it is because the storm really starts cranking by their latitude so it dynamically cools them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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