PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Whiff for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I love this look. All we need is the precip to slide a bit north. No more snowhole to our SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Is that some high pressure (relatively) building to the north and west of the low, I see before me? Also, what's that small vort/shortwave just to the west of the main storm? Was that there before, because I wonder if that's making it scoot out to sea more, rather than turn more northeast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Surface temps are VERY cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 closes off the 5H 6 hours too late an improvement and a decent place to start from I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 4:10 PM, PhineasC said: I love this look. All we need is the precip to slide a bit north. No more snowhole to our SW. This. We are really close to a nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 12z UKMET 72hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 4:11 PM, mitchnick said: closes off the 5H 6 hours too late an improvement and a decent place to start from I guess If i would have told you last night that the 12Z run would look like this you would have kissed me . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 4:11 PM, mitchnick said: closes off the 5H 6 hours too late an improvement and a decent place to start from I guess I love this run. Great temp profile and precip pattern. We need a north move now, rather than needing a south move in the vort as in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 4:10 PM, Always in Zugzwang said: Is that some high pressure (relatively) building to the north and west of the low, I see before me? Also, what's that small vort/shortwave just to the west of the main storm? Was that there before, because I wonder if that's making it scoot out to sea more, rather than turn more northeast? Was thinking the same on both counts. Definitely a good run for the GFS though. If it had continued to trend S or E then we would have been in trouble. Those of us in Central MD are still looking for a westward shift but that might not be too much to ask at this point. I am worried about that kicker though... hopefully we can continue to trend west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 4:13 PM, PhineasC said: I love this run. Great temp profile and precip pattern. We need a north move now, rather than needing a south move in the vort as in the past. Yes, looked overall not bad. Again, I wonder if that shortwave just to the west is "kicking" it out east more, and if that's shown up before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
33andrain Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I don't know about everybody else, but I feel good about the direction things are headed here at 12Z. It's going to be a long wait until 00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 4:14 PM, 33andrain said: I don't know about everybody else, but I feel good about the direction things are headed here at 12Z. It's going to be a long wait until 00Z 18Z! Corrected... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 A NAM/GFS compromise would probably lay down 3-6 for many in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Wow, looking at the loop of the latest GFS I would say the H5 track is VERY similar to the surprise MECS/HECS in January 2000 that surprised the mets. It's funny because it closed off just a little before the models projected and bit westward and slammed the coast. Wouldn't it be nice for a repeat of that on this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 4:15 PM, kurtstack said: A NAM/GFS compromise would probably lay down 3-6 for many in the region. The GFS already lays down 3-5 in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
33andrain Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I won't be around for 18Z, THANK GOD! I'll be back home in time to catch the 00Z NAM and beyond.. Enjoy the 18Z though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmondsnow Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 How cold do the 2m temps look throughout the event along the I95 corridor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 12Z UKMET at 60hrs has a 1004mb low in Mid Alabama, at 0z UKMET 72hrs it was a 1002mb on the ALA/MIS border. So its slower than 0z a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 4:17 PM, PhineasC said: The GFS already lays down 3-5 in the region. For a line going from Sw to NE cutting through D.C... Unfortunately I would only be getting about 1-2 from this . But I'm not going to split hairs on QPF over this run the way the models have been shifting. This is a great run through and through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 4:17 PM, PhineasC said: The GFS already lays down 3-5 in the region. I understand the NAM just extends that west further. In any case both the NAM and GFS are showing a classic signature with the track of 700 and 850 closed lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 4:17 PM, thesnowsknows said: Wow, looking at the loop of the latest GFS I would say the H5 track is VERY similar to the surprise MECS/HECS in January 2000 that surprised the mets. It's funny because it closed off just a little before the models projected and bit westward and slammed the coast. Wouldn't it be nice for a repeat of that on this one? There are plenty of differences though, and the models back then were vastly inferior to what we run now. The one interesting aspect that will be similar is the interaction once the upper energy hits the GoM .... even today's models don't handle this kind of situation that well (people talk about convective feedback...but sometimes organized convection does in fact transfer information upscale....through large scale latent heat release and the generation of diabatic low level potential vorticity). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Agree ! On 1/23/2011 at 4:22 PM, kurtstack said: I understand the NAM just extends that west further. In any case both the NAM and GFS are showing a classic signature with the track of 700 and 850 closed lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The precip cutoff on the GFS looks almost like what we saw last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 4:20 PM, richmondsnow said: How cold do the 2m temps look throughout the event along the I95 corridor? gfs is still too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 4:39 PM, Ian said: gfs is still too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 On 1/23/2011 at 4:39 PM, Ian said: gfs is still too warm This is the craziest model watching I've ever experienced bar none. Probably going to rain some. Lots of us should prepare for that. I am pretty sure the northward progression isn't finished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 i hope that didnt take too long ninja.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Latest CMC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 12z GGEM is a 984mb bomb near Philly at 84hrs, looks north of 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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