Harry Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Isn't a neutral ao Neutral to positive nao and neutral to positive pna good for us here in the great lakes Harry? A neutral/-PNA can be good to and thus see 08-09. Depends on other things as well. Same with the AO but this we really don't want it too negative unless we get alot of help from elsewhere sorta like we did last Feb or say Dec 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 A neutral/-PNA can be good to and thus see 08-09. Depends on other things as well. Same with the AO but this we really don't want it too negative unless we get alot of help from elsewhere sorta like we did last Feb or say Dec 2000. So we have the ao in our favor and the nao is going east based. As far as the pna goes if its positive does that mean the ridge out west sends storms further south? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 18z NAM...with decent ratios that ain't bad. too bad its going to change. besides the bitter cold on the way, this is all there is to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I can agree with that. I'm sure part of my skepticism is because of what has happened up to this point, but I gotta be careful to not let that cloud my judgement. Oh i don't blame you. I feel the exact same way and probably more so. I just cant ignore the potential even though my negative/skeptic side says hell no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I think you're sitting pretty right now Friv. It will probably track a bit more east putting you solidly in the 0.25-0.50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 12z EURO ensemble mean a fair bit south of the OP run. Looks like the EURO OP is all by itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 NAM is out to 48, looks like it will end up further SW then 18z. closer to 12z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 NAM is out to 48, looks like it will end up further SW then 18z. closer to 12z nam The 18Z NAM was a junk run. Looks like it corrected itself here and got off its crackpot mini snowstorm for Chicago and northern ILL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The 18Z NAM was a junk run. Looks like it corrected itself here and got off its crackpot mini snowstorm for Chicago and northern ILL. It takes the WAA snow right threw here, but it is a bit dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It takes the WAA snow right threw here, but it is a bit dry. Looking good again for you Friv. I see STL is up to 21.6" as of today. Good for 41st place, which is already in the top 1/3 of seasons if the winter ended today. Up, up, and away...just keep tacking on the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The 18Z NAM was a junk run. Looks like it corrected itself here and got off its crackpot mini snowstorm for Chicago and northern ILL. hey hey hey lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 NAM drops about 7 inches here with 13/15-1 SLR's. interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 NAM doesn't appear headed toward the ECMWF idea either. The rare NCEP 500mb pattern victory? Rare? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I know NCEP does alot better in the 'warm" season, but I can't remember many victories this winter so far. Winter RECON data ftw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I know NCEP does alot better in the 'warm" season, but I can't remember many victories this winter so far. Well first this event and the overall pattern evolution is far from close to verifying either way--also the NCEP suite (GFS mostly) has done perfectly fine overall this season. Both the GFS and Euro (as expected) have had their share of "victories" and busts with a lot of forecasts in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 0z NAM QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 0z NAM QPF Maybe Baro can answer this: with such a broad trough carving into the center of the country and if it can get far enough south with energy in it, wonder what the chances of a slow moving low across the center of the country being able to tap the gulf....kinda like what the euro showed. Or would that require a much sharper trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I would lock it in, obviously. to bad it will change alot and needs to be more wide spread for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Maybe Baro can answer this: with such a broad trough carving into the center of the country and if it can get far enough south with energy in it, wonder what the chances of a slow moving low across the center of the country being able to tap the gulf....kinda like what the euro showed. Or would that require a much sharper trough? There will be some sort of GOM flow--but it won't be too moist as the front pushing south now http://www.hpc.ncep....rgnamsfcwbg.gif and the second system pushing through in two days are going to wipe the GOM moisture out--and it will take a while to moderate and moisten for the incoming Pacific waves. It does seem Gulf moisture will eventually be prevalent by day 4-5 and beyond--but it seems the trough will be displaced too far E for any of our region. Any of these Pacific waves are going to be displaced from the polar front--so they will not have any significant cyclogenesis potential over the CONUS and subsequent moisture transport. Even the ECMWF keeps most of the moist GOM flow displaced well S and E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 GFS is way weaker then NAM and RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Well we knew the models would have issues with this pattern. But wow--the GFS through 78 is not even close to the previous runs in the height field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Well we knew the models would have issues with this pattern. But wow--the GFS through 78 is not even close to the previous runs in the height field. Looks ECMWF-ish...at least at the surface through 72hrs. Edit: Neutral tilt trough in the Plains/MV... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Looks ECMWF-ish...at least at the surface through 72hrs. Edit: Ends up different. Ends up different but it definitely ticked much closer to the ECMWF this run. Folks over the Mid-Atlantic will likely like this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 well, it sure wasn't EUROISH in QPF....but I feel its closer to reality then the NAM...I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I honestly dont see any good storms in the near future, this pattern is a persistent blocky/suppressive for any type of storm to form. Especially across the g/l region. After a prolonger period of dry arctic air, only storms develop to the west and fizzle out as it moves east. We have no source of moisture from the south, nor are these system strong. The easter seaboard has been getting clobbered because of the ocean, plus system are further south, and pull in GOM moisture a little easier. Who would have thought that this winter will turn out like this :/. *Chuck Guadica-Ch 4 Detroit did tell me that he expect this winter to be fairly dry and cold, (I thought he was crazy) also he mentioned that he does not see any massive snow storms. Just because we are in a La Nina pattern, that does not mean we will have a good snowy season. Plenty of other factors that need to be taken into consideration, that personally I have not. I guess I can just call this "A Learned lesson". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 OMG at gfs 138, storm of 93?? HOLY CRAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 OMG at gfs 138, storm of 93?? HOLY CRAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I'm hoping for that west trend LOL, but of course there s a 2% chance of that occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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