Stevo6899 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Is the pna trending well into the + causing these storms to dive so far south? I know the nao and so are weakening but the pna may be taking over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 What are your thoughts Barc? he's being a traitor posting over in the philly and ma threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 he's being a traitor posting over in the philly and ma threads you post where the action is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 you post where the action is. betcha they get rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 betcha they get rain I was more talking about the storm they’ll be seeing soon. As for this one, I’ve said all along the OH valley is in play, especially east. But if I had to favor a solution, it’s another coastal, miller A style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I was more talking about the storm they’ll be seeing soon. As for this one, I’ve said all along the OH valley is in play, especially east. But if I had to favor a solution, it’s another coastal, miller A style. ok, but the thread i saw him in was next weeks threat. If that winds up enough to go north all the way up into new england it's almost a sure bet to be rain for most of the coast/i-95. High sliding east and no blocking. otherwise, if it's a euro-ish look with a cutoff low and a weaker low, then they're in the game.....and you and me would be as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 18z NAM is going to be much further North and East with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 look at this hot mess by only hr 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 18z NAM is going to be much further North and East with this system. looks a lot like 12z to me. I'd expect QPF on that northern piece to trend down some as well without any moisture connection and a pretty washed on baroclinic zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 looks a lot like 12z to me. I'd expect QPF on that northern piece to trend down some as well without any moisture connection and a pretty washed on baroclinic zone. i'd actually enjoy watching that map in motion on a watervapor loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 18z NAM is going to be much further North and East with this system. That's what the trend has been the last few runs, or so should I say the whole winter! We have about 25 inches on the ground here, so the map isn't entirely accurate. This could make for a scary spring flood wise! MinneSNOWtA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 i'd actually enjoy watching that map in motion on a watervapor loop the NAM really brings that first piece in pretty far north and east but then it's going to get stuck between a rock and a hard place as it waits for downstream and upstream action to unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 he's being a traitor posting over in the philly and ma threads I hope your joking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 What are your thoughts Barc? What I posted in MA/NYC/Philly. Here is a good look at the GFS operational in the Pacific. Watch each wave disturbance break off the Pacific Jet then pass over the Eastern Pacific Ridge. The exact timing of these low amplitude features and how strong they eventually are is almost impossible for the models to accurately simulate--then more variability is thrown into the mix as they pass through the coastal ranges and dense mountain networks of BC. This is likely going to be some of the lowest verification scores of the models all winter with this pattern we are getting into. http://weather.utah....fs004&r=PA&d=TS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 What I posted in MA/NYC/Philly. Here is a good look at the GFS operational in the Pacific. Watch each wave disturbance break off the Pacific Jet then pass over the Eastern Pacific Ridge. The exact timing of these low amplitude features and how strong they eventually are is almost impossible for the models to accurately simulate--then more variability is thrown into the mix as they pass through the coastal ranges and dense mountain networks of BC. This is likely going to be some of the lowest verification scores of the models all winter with this pattern we are getting into. http://weather.utah....fs004&r=PA&d=TS In summation, be prepared for a lot of "the models suck" posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I hope your joking. no, i think you're a traitor, i want to put a bandanna on my head, and i want to cut loose with an M16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 In summation, be prepared for a lot of "the models suck" posts. Pretty much. In reality--I guess the best thing to say is nobody should be necessarily latching on to any one solution beyond 72 hours out--and even then things are prone to wild changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Pretty much. In reality--I guess the best thing to say is nobody should be necessarily latching on to any one solution beyond 72 hours out--and even then things are prone to wild changes. Quite honestly I love this type of pattern because things are fun to track and it reminds us how chaotic the atmosphere can be at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Quite honestly I love this type of pattern because things are fun to track and it reminds us how chaotic the atmosphere can be at times. hate it, no wrapped up storms = pretty boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 hate it, no wrapped up storms = pretty boring. Not necessarily. I can deal with a WAA event as long as I'm on the overruning side of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Nam alot quicker with the storm than the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Not necessarily. I can deal with a WAA event as long as I'm on the overruning side of it. I'd still rather see a big wrapped up storm depositing 10+ inches on the backside with thundersnow, than 2" of WAA snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Quite honestly I love this type of pattern because things are fun to track and it reminds us how chaotic the atmosphere can be at times. I don't think some understand the potential this pattern may bring. I'd still rather see a big wrapped up storm depositing 10+ inches on the backside with thundersnow, than 2" of WAA snow. I agree but, Can get that ( big hit ) with this pattern coming up unless by freak chance we end up with the same sort of blocking we had. Right now nothing is suggesting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'd still rather see a big wrapped up storm depositing 10+ inches on the backside with thundersnow, than 2" of WAA snow. I like big storms too, but with the AO projected to be near neutral to positive and that dominant +PNA ridge--unless some magical phases happen it doesn't seem like a sufficiently intense baroclinic zone will be present for any wrapped beasts in the mid-range future. That said--these baroclinic wave train patterns can always yield a few pleasant surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I don't think some understand the potential this pattern may bring. I agree but, Can get that ( big hit ) with this pattern coming up unless by freak chance we end up with the same sort of blocking we had. Right now nothing is suggesting that. Yeah there is always potential and there will likely be some pleasant surprises for some in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I don't think some understand the potential this pattern may bring. I agree but, Can get that ( big hit ) with this pattern coming up unless by freak chance we end up with the same sort of blocking we had. Right now nothing is suggesting that. Eh Harry, I don't know. This looks like a pattern of relatively frequent smaller events to me. If we miss the opportunity for a big storm with the event that this thread pertains to, we'll probably be waiting until February or March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I like big storms too, but with the AO projected to be near neutral to positive and that dominant +PNA ridge--unless some magical phases happen it doesn't seem like a sufficiently intense baroclinic zone will be present for any wrapped beasts in the mid-range future. That said--these baroclinic wave train patterns can always yield a few pleasant surprises. meh..Not so sure how much i would buy into the neutral AO. With this atleast the models have not been so hot. And from a historical climo standpoint ( big storms etc ) for this region i really don't want it too negative anyways. See Jan 67, 78 etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Isn't a neutral ao Neutral to positive nao and neutral to positive pna good for us here in the great lakes Harry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Eh Harry, I don't know. This looks like a pattern of relatively frequent smaller events to me. If we miss the opportunity for a big storm with the event that this thread pertains to, we'll probably be waiting until February or March. The big key i have been looking for ( what i usually look for ) is more ridging out west. Assuming the models are correct about the PNA/EPO we should get that part of the deal. That allows the systems to dig more which should help force more ridging ahead of them too and that is where the NAO comes into play. get what we had and well congrats i95 but get what we had in say Jan 67 or 78 and hello GL/OV. Ofcourse we need the storms etc to line up perfectly as well. Basically all i am just saying that this has more potential then the crap we had back in Dec etc. Whether it bears fruit or not is to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The big key i have been looking for ( what i usually look for ) is more ridging out west. Assuming the models are correct about the PNA/EPO we should get that part of the deal. That allows the systems to dig more which should help force more ridging ahead of them too and that is where the NAO comes into play. get what we had and well congrats i95 but get what we had in say Jan 67 or 78 and hello GL/OV. Ofcourse we need the storms etc to line up perfectly as well. Basically all i am just saying that this has more potential then the crap we had back in Dec etc. Whether it bears fruit or not is to be seen. I can agree with that. I'm sure part of my skepticism is because of what has happened up to this point, but I gotta be careful to not let that cloud my judgement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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