Organizing Low Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 :lmao: btw, for laughs....jb was analoging next week with.... march '93 :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 well that's unimpressive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Just about every one of the 12z GFS ensembles spins up a coastal in the med range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 DVN WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APRCHG BY LATE SAT NGT INTO SUN. A SIG SPREAD IN MODELS WITH THE GEM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH SVRL INCHES OF SNOW...AND IS THE OUTIER. GFS-OP AND ECMWF HOLD MOST OF IT TO THE WEST...HOWEVER ENS DATA SUGGESTS A TRACK FARTHER EAST MORE REALISTIC. SREF DEPICTS THIS WELL IN WHAT WILL LKLY BE ANOTHER HIGH POP RELATIVELY LOW QPF EVENT. PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH MINOR STORMS WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Well, the 12z Euro is coming in a little more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Well, the 12z Euro is coming in a little more interesting. looks good for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 looks good for LAF. Yeah, not bad. Drawn out event on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Main difference between the EURO and the GFS continues to be that the GFS retrogrades a component s/w into the SW. Kinda wish it was the other way around (with EURO doing that) so we could just dismiss it as a bias. Instead, not sure what to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Main difference between the EURO and the GFS continues to be that the GFS retrogrades a component s/w into the SW. Kinda wish it was the other way around (with EURO doing that) so we could just dismiss it as a bias. Instead, not sure what to believe. give it a another day and we might be able to EE rule this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 What is the QPF for KC, STL, and INDY please, thank you in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Main difference between the EURO and the GFS continues to be that the GFS retrogrades a component s/w into the SW. Kinda wish it was the other way around (with EURO doing that) so we could just dismiss it as a bias. Instead, not sure what to believe. storm passes off the coast, south of new england, heads for nova scotia looks good no arguments here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Main difference between the EURO and the GFS continues to be that the GFS retrogrades a component s/w into the SW. Kinda wish it was the other way around (with EURO doing that) so we could just dismiss it as a bias. Instead, not sure what to believe. well you always have the general bias for the gfs to be a POS model beyond 84 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 so what exactly would you call the euro solution? It's kind of like a bowling ball that hits the gutter and crawls down the lane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 gfs has been very good this year has handed it to the euro a couple times on coastal development i wouldnt throw out the GFS ..esp with GGEM trending in that direction....havent seen ukie past 72 EDIT just saw ukie, nice trend towards the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 What is the QPF for KC, STL, and INDY please, thank you in advance. STL and IND are .4 to .5 for this event. KC much less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 the euro was kinda weird. At 96 that 5h map had a trough going neutral/neg west of the Miss river with the northern piece ready to drop in from MN. Then at 120 the piece drops in closed off and the trough isn't nearly as deep as i would have thought. Looking at that 96 hrs map i thought for sure it was going to send a pretty strong storm up into the ov or apps at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 the euro was kinda weird. At 96 that 5h map had a trough going neutral/neg west of the Miss river with the northern piece ready to drop in from MN. Then at 120 the piece drops in closed off and the trough isn't nearly as deep as i would have thought. Looking at that 96 hrs map i thought for sure it was going to send a pretty strong storm up into the ov or apps at 120 This winter, don't be against mediocrity, no matter how much things suggest otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 the euro was kinda weird. At 96 that 5h map had a trough going neutral/neg west of the Miss river with the northern piece ready to drop in from MN. Then at 120 the piece drops in closed off and the trough isn't nearly as deep as i would have thought. Looking at that 96 hrs map i thought for sure it was going to send a pretty strong storm up into the ov or apps at 120. Maybe the confluence over the ne is still too much of a player keeping a ridge out front from popping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Thanks for the STL QPF. so nice, trending towards a stronger 1st wave again. nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 meanwhile the jma sends a storm up the coast...but inland. E. OH and pITT get into .5+ qpf and most of the i-95ers are probably rain. edit: Actually the 850 0 is fairly far west almost to OH/PA border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 meanwhile the jma sends a storm up the coast...but inland. E. OH and pITT get into .5+ qpf and most of the i-95ers are probably rain. edit: Actually the 850 0 is fairly far west almost to OH/PA border i only see the jam out to 6 days, it has a low along the SE coast.....looks to be basically a nod towards the other globals....does it go out further than that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 How much qpf for PAH on the EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 i only see the jam out to 6 days, it has a low along the SE coast.....looks to be basically a nod towards the other globals....does it go out further than that? 12Z 168 JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 i only see the jam out to 6 days, it has a low along the SE coast.....looks to be basically a nod towards the other globals....does it go out further than that? on accuwx it goes to 192. You're right, at 144 it has a low in the southeast with a reflection up into the lower ov. by 168 it has a 990 low approx over albany NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 12Z 168 JMA a lot of the heaviest stuff is probably rain on that according to the 850s,,,,except for like central PA west and n. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 12Z 168 JMA on accuwx it goes to 192. You're right, at 144 it has a low in the southeast with a reflection up into the lower ov. by 168 it has a 990 low approx over albany NY. thanks guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Boy it's been a long time since there's been a good snow on snow event around here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Boy it's been a long time since there's been a good snow on snow event around here... yea would be nice. Usually that only occurs in the Dakotas and msp. Further east we are prone to warmer temps and sloppy mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Looks like a lot of spread to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 What are your thoughts Barc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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