Thundersnow12 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 12z is a tad further north with the better precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 LSX WRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Did bowme just post a fetus sized turd? lulz. This one has east coast or apps written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 To bad the system goes on to block things up like a :lmao:Until its to late here. I just puked in my mouth...thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Did bowme just post a fetus sized turd? lulz. This one has east coast or apps written all over it. wait to see whats happening here in another 30 days when the cold dry pattern roars on...enjoy your flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I just puked in my mouth...thanks because of the weather pattern or the pic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GFS looks very close to the current system... a KC special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Did bowme just post a fetus sized turd? lulz. This one has east coast or apps written all over it. I-70 special...then NYC and Boston? with a few flurries and clouds in my area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 because of the weather pattern or the pic? BOTH!... but the weather patern is making me find new hobbies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 BOTH!... but the weather patern is making me find new hobbies Where's this SE ridge. Besides possibly the huge MSP storm, there hasn't been one storm that has tapped the gulf all season. Very rare. Lets hope the mets were right predicting a backloaded winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Where's this SE ridge. Besides possibly the huge MSP storm, there hasn't been one storm that has tapped the gulf all season. Very rare. Lets hope the mets were right predicting a backloaded winter. Its almost Feburary theres no signs of change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GFS looks very close to the current system... a KC special. Hard to say where the wave ejects from the rockies, but it looks like this one could at least initially start furher north. It will inevitably be squashed well to the south as it heads east. The spacing between waves just isn't going to allow heights to rise enough for us out east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Looks better, just a bit more..I'd like to see the nam's depiction better, it would extrapolate to a good high end advisory easy with that close h7 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Hey good job on the analysis and collection of data. I will just give you a bit of a heads up don't spend all night working on an analysis for a day 6 event before the days 1-2 unfolds, not that anything you did was wrong i'm impressed by how much data you've collected but it's kinda like doing a 240 hour ecmwf/gfs ensemble comparison it isn't very likely to verify, i only started this thread to show a threat from the pattern with a deep trough off the east coast and several S/W's coming in. Depending on strength i could see a phase event for the GL/MW but i would wait a few more days to do any type of detailed analysis because regardless of how hard you worked, the verification is nearly zilcho at this time frame. There's a reason why the long range AFD's are always shorter than the near term (as long as they don't write the near term for a 24 hour period) the long range is more of a pattern recognition than a snow storm diagnostic. I do like the global signal stuff though like the -nao but just wait a bit to put all your eggs in one basket on an analysis. Do this on friday/saturday and then we can talk about the threat. ya that was kinda crappy of me i was a little cranky after working all night, Good job you certainly did more work describing the event than what i did. I never put that much time or effort into discussing the weather i was just saying it is still a long way off and i'd wait for a detailed analysis. Great work though ignore my post above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Lets wait for this first system to move out before we say people from the northern ohio valley and great lakes have no shot. The NAO is negative but east based so a further west track is likely if we can get a phase. As we know the models have a tough time analyzing the changing NAO. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 That's last night's GEM. The new 12z GEM has shifted much farther south and looks very similar to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 looks a lot like how i imagine the NAM would. Intense squashing going on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 need that damn trough to go more neutral to neg. So positive it just spills out the southern energy east. Monster potential with this one if it can do that. We need a se ridge edit: yea i know.....if "ifs and buts were candy and nuts"....blah blah blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 yeah the new GEM is a huge squashier, to bad if this could amplify enough to come further east before it goes, it would be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I wouldn't whole sale quit on this, there could be huge implications if the vort doesn't cut off in the Southwest, and with s system coming through now, and a weak clipper after, we are talking about a 3rd system at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 btw, for laughs....jb was analoging next week with.... march '93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 It's time for one of these pacific NW storms to man up and stop being scared away from weak voretex's and energy left over to the NE. The problem is these pacific NW lows are so unimpressive and need another system in order to intensify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 GFS ensemble mean is a bit wetter further NE, so there must be some further north solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 btw, for laughs....jb was analoging next week with.... I believe the date was for the 1st week of February that he was using the anolog for. march '93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 this is something that won't be caught till we get the current storm outa here. Probably inside 84hrs again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 hmmmm, i'll have to check that, i thought he was analoging next week. He did say rain for i-95 next week, which to me implies a pretty good storm to go inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 to this point, iln's afd wasnt as foolish as we thought. Snow is only sticking to the snow here, not sticking on pavement or bare grass lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 to this point, iln's afd wasnt as foolish as we thought. Snow is only sticking to the snow here, not sticking on pavement or bare grass lol. january sun angle ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 january sun angle ftw Give me a break lol, same problem there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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