Stevo6899 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 don't look at the 00z euro seems like it'll be an e/c bomb. Maybe an interior event OHV special but doesn't look good for a further west solution Thats all the euro spits out. The pacific NW and canadian storm train keeps on coming and so will the potential for the east coast. Is it normal in la ninas for their to be a high in the south pacific for long periods of time right off the coast of cali? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Not seeing a EC bomb. Euro's upper levels are disorganized. It is the way it gets there that is interesting. Models have broken apart in sampling. Nice sub 980mb storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Not a bomb, but still a nice sub 990mb storm. Actually it is a bomb technically speaking. Rapid deepening in the 144-168 hr timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 i was just going off the 144 vort/heights at 500 we need that northern energy to dig further west while the southern branch slows down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 i was just going off the 144 vort/heights at 500 we need that northern energy to dig further west while the southern branch slows down. We usually see that happen on the east coast and rarely in the ohio valley or just east of the apps. Potential is there thats all we know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Actually it is a bomb technically speaking. Rapid deepening in the 144-168 hr timeframe. I edited my post. I spoke to soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 Actually it is a bomb technically speaking. Rapid deepening in the 144-168 hr timeframe. thanks for verifying i really don't have the stormvista/accelerated ecmwf data so i was just looking at the pattern but if it continues to lag the energy behind and doesn't bring the northern wave in stronger further west. You mind as well mail the NE a letter saying congrats but i'll give it another day to see how it handles the northern stream wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 20, 2011 Author Share Posted January 20, 2011 btw anyone watch the walking dead? I'm watching the marathon unless its to violent for you its is really one of the best series i've ever seen, almost like watching parts of a movie every week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Anyone who is still up needs to go outside and look at the moon. S/E Mi Beautiful halo around it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Anyone who is still up needs to go outside and look at the moon. S/E Mi Beautiful halo around it.. OT Yeah I noticed this too /OT As for this storm during the time range, I think the best thing is to let this simmer some as we have the first bullet to pass to the south of the area first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Awesome write up. You need to post a lot more often. Thanks Hey good job on the analysis and collection of data. I will just give you a bit of a heads up don't spend all night working on an analysis for a day 6 event before the days 1-2 unfolds, not that anything you did was wrong i'm impressed by how much data you've collected but it's kinda like doing a 240 hour ecmwf/gfs ensemble comparison it isn't very likely to verify, i only started this thread to show a threat from the pattern with a deep trough off the east coast and several S/W's coming in. Depending on strength i could see a phase event for the GL/MW but i would wait a few more days to do any type of detailed analysis because regardless of how hard you worked, the verification is nearly zilcho at this time frame. There's a reason why the long range AFD's are always shorter than the near term (as long as they don't write the near term for a 24 hour period) the long range is more of a pattern recognition than a snow storm diagnostic. I do like the global signal stuff though like the -nao but just wait a bit to put all your eggs in one basket on an analysis. Do this on friday/saturday and then we can talk about the threat. Believe it or not that only took me about 45 minutes to write. I don't mind taking a stab at at least what general direction I think a storm will go this far out and see where it verifies. I'll usually look at what all the models (of importance) are doing like I did last night and try to guage why they are showind different solutions then guess which one I think has the best idea, although we all know that can change so I do know I have to be careful. but hey you did work hard and i'm impressed don't let me discourage you the reason i joined this forum was to learn/get more information on meteorology so to discount someone else before i voice my opinions is a bit hasty, i have a feeling this is going to be one of those semi storms that has potential but never phases as energy is left behind. Its an interesting solution as it can't crank out and move northeast due to the L/W pattern but we'll have to see how the energy is resolved. Ya, it wouldn't surprise me if that happened either. Close but probably not enough for most of the region if that occured except for maybe the lower OV. Anyways, 0z ECM ensemble means appear to show almost a neutral trough over the OV at hour 144 with a weak primary attempting to ride west of the Apps. They haven't completely lost the idea yet which is good: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 would i be correct in saying that straggling piece of energy on the back side of the trough is the monkey wrench? Also cmich, no disrespect and I get what you're saying, but I can't understand why anyone would discourage the kind of analysis OH put out there and worked so hard on, based on it being a 6 day threat. We rarely see that kind of effort in this region and the fact that it's 6 days out shouldn't have anything to do with it, this is a wx board and it's a great way to get discussion going. I agree with Hoosier, we need more of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 would i be correct in saying that straggling piece of energy on the back side of the trough is the monkey wrench? Also cmich, no disrespect and I get what you're saying, but I can't understand why anyone would discourage the kind of analysis OH put out there and worked so hard on, based on it being a 6 day threat. We rarely see that kind of effort in this region and the fact that it's 6 days out shouldn't have anything to do with it, this is a wx board and it's a great way to get discussion going. I agree with Hoosier, we need more of this. I agree, I think it was nice that he put that all together. Nothing wrong with it. I personally would never put that much time into analyzing an event more than 4 days out as I would consider doing so a waste of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I agree, I think it was nice that he put that all together. Nothing wrong with it. I personally would never put that much time into analyzing an event more than 4 days out as I would consider doing so a waste of time. But why even bring that up and what does it have to do with his analysis and effort? Ok, i'll just say it.....when promets make patronizing comments to a hobbyiest like nice work but....(and the 'but' is on the effort not the analysis), well it kinda looks petty. wrt 4 days out being a waste of time....then maybe you shouldn't be so quick to write off the extended for your area like you just did in another thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 NAM looking like it has some potential at 84hrs and after that. The NAM is making a habit of being over amplified and north in it's long range. There is little potential with this one west of the eastern OH valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Blah, Michigan gray. "PURE MICHIGAN" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Last summer I thought was awesome.. Sure, it was consistently warm, but there was too much convective debris/stratoicumulus for my liking, which also kept any potential for extreme heat in check, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I agree, I think it was nice that he put that all together. Nothing wrong with it. I personally would never put that much time into analyzing an event more than 4 days out as I would consider doing so a waste of time. I thought his analysis was excellent. No question the potential is there... and nothing wrong with analyzing it. Obviously this could all change with the next model run. It would be great to see more disco from the local mets on this board (not reffering to Baro as he always offers input) inside of 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 nice hybrid on the NAM BIG HIT FOR IA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 But why even bring that up and what does it have to do with his analysis and effort? Ok, i'll just say it.....when promets make patronizing comments to a hobbyiest like nice work but....(and the 'but' is on the effort not the analysis), well it kinda looks petty. wrt 4 days out being a waste of time....then maybe you shouldn't be so quick to write off the extended for your area like you just did in another thread. Yeah I just re-read what I posted and it was sort of sh*tty huh. I apologize if I offended anybody. I'm probably just bitter because another decent snow event is missing my backyard. It is this pessimism that offers no value to this message board so I will stop posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 nice hybrid on the NAM BIG HIT FOR IA Shame it's going to be completely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 great writeup by OH weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Great write-up OHWeather. Confirms we are going to be cold and dry for the midrange...possibly even the long range. I think I am going to ignore any storm potential for the next week or two. It's just not in the cards for this region at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 The latest NAM is fantastic for Iowa, but the NAM also had the current Missouri storm hitting Iowa at this range. The GFS has had this next significant event moving well southwest of my area every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Lets wait for this first system to move out before we say people from the northern ohio valley and great lakes have no shot. The NAO is negative but east based so a further west track is likely if we can get a phase. As we know the models have a tough time analyzing the changing NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Lets wait for this first system to move out before we say people from the northern ohio valley and great lakes have no shot. The NAO is negative but east based so a further west track is likely if we can get a phase. As we know the models have a tough time analyzing the changing NAO. I'm really not seeing a threat here for our areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 I'm really not seeing a threat here for our areas. Seasonal trends FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Seasonal trends FTL. Hoosier gonna be mad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 12z GFS looks close to the 0z run at 66hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 20, 2011 Share Posted January 20, 2011 Lets wait for this first system to move out before we say people from the northern ohio valley and great lakes have no shot. The NAO is negative but east based so a further west track is likely if we can get a phase. As we know the models have a tough time analyzing the changing NAO. To bad the system goes on to block things up like a Until its to late here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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