January 24th-26th Winter Storm Potential

[Chicago Storm]

I think it was last week, Tom Skilling had a graphic on his weather blog, depicting the potential snow fall for the Chicago area over the next two week period was anywhere from 3.9" to 19"..............

Using the GFS long-range FTL.

He needs to stop humping his RPM model too. Sucks more than my girl does.

[Thundersnow12]

Using the GFS long-range FTL.

He needs to stop humping his RPM model too. Sucks more than my girl does.

The one in your picture, right? haha

[Moneyman]

lolFalcons.

[Chicago Storm]

The one in your picture, right? haha

I wish. There is some resemblance between them though.

lolFalcons.

stfu.

[Stevo6899]

Hour 90 on the gfs looks to be a similar setup as this current storm. Northern wave looks a bit stronger than the northern wave with the current storm

[BowMeHunter]

So much potential going to waste like the Falcons season. NE could use some snow

[Ajdos]

GFS .

[Chicago WX]

There is some resemblance between them though.

They're both female? Eh-oh.

[Ajdos]

I wish. There is some resemblance between them though.

stfu.

...I wana see u say that on Accu

[Stevo6899]

GFS .

We have the models right where we want them. Chicago storm will like this. They dont know which low to focus on. Similar to dec 12.

[Ajdos]

We have the models right where we want them. Chicago storm will like this. They dont know which low to focus on. Similar to dec 12.

[Chicago Storm]

They're both female? Eh-oh.

[Powerball]

lol.

In other news, Everything was a skating rink today. I didn't realize it until I amost fell on my arse. I ended up having to walk through the hard rock slush on the grass to get to the car. I had to pour darn near the entire bag of ice melter on the sidewalk, and even then I don't think the ice melted.

That's exactly why I hate these mini thaws, where the temperatures gets into the mid 30s/rains then re-freezes quickly without any fresh snow. It's doing a number on the tires too, it's much harder to drive through frozen slush versus packed powder. If mother nature insists on rain then we might as well torch and get rid of the crud.

EDIT: And while Michigray was living up to its name (no surprise), I did see 16 snowflakes today.

[Ajdos]

lol.

In other news, Everything was a skating rink today. I didn't realize it until I amost fell on my arse. I ended up having to walk through the hard rock slush on the grass to get to the car. I had to pour darn near the entire bag of ice melter on the sidewalk, and even then I don't think the ice melted.

That's exactly why I hate these mini thaws, where the temperatures gets into the mid 30s/rains then re-freezes quickly without any fresh snow. It's doing a number on the tires too, it's much harder to drive through frozen slush versus packed powder. If mother nature insists on rain then we might as well torch and get rid of the crud.

EDIT: And while Michigray was living up to its name (no surprise), I did see 16 snowflakes today.

[TimChgo9]

Now suffering from MID (Model Induced Depression)

GFS:

I'm going to bed.....

Edit: At least there isn't a torch showing on the GFS, cold temps out to hour 240.......for now.

[Powerball]

Yeah, I got it from Stebo, I said I was goign to use it for now on.

It perfectly describes winters (and sometimes summers, if the last two summers were any sign) around here.

[Stevo6899]

Yeah, I got it from Stebo, I said I was goign to use it for now on.

It perfectly describes winters (and sometimes summers, if the last two summers were any sign) around here.

Yea I know I cant put my finger on it but I have always thought the great lakes play a negative role on severe weather and snowstorms. I am not meteorologically advanced enough to provide facts but squall lines and winter storms seem to fall apart before they get here more often than they stay together. 70% vs 30%, with the latter being the chance of storms maintaining their strength by the time they get here.

[michsnowfreak]

lol.

In other news, Everything was a skating rink today. I didn't realize it until I amost fell on my arse. I ended up having to walk through the hard rock slush on the grass to get to the car. I had to pour darn near the entire bag of ice melter on the sidewalk, and even then I don't think the ice melted.

That's exactly why I hate these mini thaws, where the temperatures gets into the mid 30s/rains then re-freezes quickly without any fresh snow. It's doing a number on the tires too, it's much harder to drive through frozen slush versus packed powder. If mother nature insists on rain then we might as well torch and get rid of the crud.

EDIT: And while Michigray was living up to its name (no surprise), I did see 16 snowflakes today.

This glacier makes for perfect sledding and it still is white out. That is >>>>>>>>>> bare ground.

[buckeye]

pretty impressive for the gaps....this is like it's version of a superstorm hr 144

[OHweather]

Right now, most models appear to agree that there will be two shortwaves that may phase, and the models appear to all agree on where these shortwaves will be around hour 96, give or take some...

First off, the ECM ensembles. Note how the means have a clear shortwave rounding the corner over the southern Plains, with another shortwave (it's a bit subtle on the means but there) moving southeast over western Canada. The pattern at this point appears supressive, with a decent +PNA with a low over the Aluetians and ridge just off the west coast. In addition, the -NAO has re-emerged by this time frame, with a piece of the polar vortex appearing to act as a west based 50/50 low. This is creating a good amount of confluence back over the Great Lakes (again) which would likely keep any storm rather south and weak, if it persisted.

The op ECM is fairly similar to its ensembles. The op is more amplified than the ensembles with both shortwaves that may phase, however the ensembles are obviously smoothed some due to being a mean of many different solutions. When it comes to the location of the shortwaves the op is in fairly good agreement with the ensembles here. The op ECM is also close to the ECM ensemble mean here with the placement of the +PNA, -NAO, and trough/west based 50/50 over New England.

The op ECM shows some phasing potential, but again if the pattern held its ground from hour 96, any storm would stay south or weak due to the confluence over the Great Lakes due to the trough over New England.

The GFS ensembles appear to be different in some ways than the ECM and its ensembles. The means are showing a slightly weaker shortwave over the lower Plains at hour 96. When looking at the individual members which we will do in a second, it is obvious that while some members show a more amplified shortwave like the op ECM, many more are weaker with it and perhaps a tad farther east. In addition to handling the southern shortwave differently, the GFS ensemble means have a strong +PNA and have the trough over New England farther west, which would further supress and storm threat.

The members, as shown above, are torn between a more amplified and slower moving southern shortwave (which would make it easier for a stronger and more complete phase) and a faster, flatter shortwave, which is why the means show a weaker and more progressive southern shortwave than the ECM and its ensemble mean. This likely contributes to the GFS ensembles eventually showing a weaker mean solution.

The op 12z GFS is more amplified with the southern stream shortwave than a good portion of the ensemble members and appears to be slightly weaker than the ensembles with the +PNA ridge off the west coast. This is a step towards the ECM and its ensembles compared to most GFS ensemble members. However, the op GFS is like most ensembles in showing a stronger and farther west trough over New England, which again would crush our hopes for a decent storm back west over the Plains/OV/Great Lakes.

The UKMET at hour 96 is in agreement in a shortwave dropping down over western Canada and another shortwave amplifying over the southern Plains. The UKMET appears to favor the ECM and its ensembles with a slightly more progressive trough over the northeast.

As we roll the ECM ensemble means ahead, we see that a few key changes occur.

First off, the mean shows a weakening of the -NAO, causing the trough to move out of the northeast, weakening confluence over the Great Lakes. This gives us more room for a stronger storm that comes west. The ensembles also appear to be attempting to phase our two shortwaves, with one larger, slower moving trough over the Plains at hour 120.

The op ECM agrees with the ensembles in weakening the -NAO (note the fast flow over Greenland/north Atlantic, this is NOT conducive to a trough remaining over the northeast) and in begining to move the trough out of the northeast. This begins to weaken confluence over the Great Lakes. The ECM also appears to begin entangling the two shortwaves, with a broader trough that is slowing down. The ECM is obviously still sharper with the two shortwaves because it is not smoothed out by many slightly different solutions. Both the ECM and its ensembles are beginning to weaken the +PNA.

The GFS ensembles also show a broader trough slowing down, suggesting there will be a window for phasing as our northern shortwave moves southeast. However, the GFS ensemble mean is significantly slower in moving troughing out of the northeast, meaning there is still too much confluence over the Great Lakes to keep a strong storm from moving north towards the Ohio Valley.

A couple lone members appear to show the trough moving out of the northeast and appear to be slowing the southern shortwave down enough for a potential phase, however most other members are too slow in moving the trough out of the northeast to get a strongly phased solution. Most members appear to keep in place a stronger +PNA ridge as well on the west coast.

The op GFS is actually faster in pulling the trough out of the northeast than most of its ensembles, and appears to be slowing the southern shortwave enough for a potential phase, so the op GFS is not yet all gloom and doom, up until this point.

The UKMET looks close to the ECM and the ECM ensemble mean, as it pulls the trough out of the northeast and appears to show both shortwaves attempting to phase over the Midwest. There is a surface reflection on the UKMET developing along the Gulf coast.

FWIW, the GGEM on its 12z run was MUCH slower in bringing the trough out of the northeast, and shears out the initial southern shortwave, meaning any storm would be from the next two shortwaves coming down, which is why the 12z run appeared to show a developing storm a couple days later than say the ECM at the end of its run. I am discounting the GGEM solution for now as most other models are much faster in lifting the trough out of the northeast, which makes sense given the fast flow developing over the northern Atlantic.

As we roll the ECM ensembles ahead another 24 hours, the trough further lifts out of the northeast and there appears to be enough relaxation in the flow over the eastern US to allow a storm to attempt to run north should we see a phasing of our two pieces of energy. The ensembles appear to hint at an initial storm riding into the OV, but in the end do show a coastal low taking over:

The ECM is close to its ensembles in that it completely lifts the trough out of the northeast, however shows a more complete phase than most ensemble members likely did, which results in a much strong OV primary:

The GFS ensembles do attempt to lift the trough out of the northeast, however appear to be just slightly slower in doing so than the ECM suite, which may be what caused most if not all members to show a weaker storm:

The 12z GFS is a good bit slower in moving the trough out of the northeast. While the op does slow the trough down over the Ohio Valley, there is too much confluence over the northern US for a storm to attempt to move north towards the Ohio Valley. However, the model does hang an inverted trough up into the lower Ohio Valley, which is an initial start to showing something more I suppose:

Like it did most of the run, the 12z UKMET appears to favor the ECM suite, note the intensifying storm over the southeast at hour 144, as the trough closes off over the mid Mississippi Valley:

Glancing at the 0z GFS, it appears to continue hanging the trough back more over the northeast than the 12z ECM/UKMET did.

So, in conclusion:

1. All models looked at above show the same two shortwaves as possible canidates for phasing over similar locations initially (hour 96 on the 12z runs), and many models attempted to slow the southern branch shortwave down enough to give the northern shortwave a chance to catch it. Energy hanging back (or being shown to, at least) over the southwest does not currently appear to be a problem on the models.

2. All models start off with a weak -NAO and trough over the northeastern US as our shortwaves initially amplify over the central/western US. This would squash/supress any storm threat. However, all reliable models except for the GFS/GEFS and GGEM attempt to move this trough out enough to leave room for a storm coming up the east coast or even inland if a phase were to occur.

3. The UKMET, ECM, and ECM ENS means all attempt to show some sort of low either going up the Apps or at least an inverted trough hanging northwest into the Ohio Valley. This leads me to believe that if our trough moves out of the northeast enough that any phased storm would track somewhere from the coastal Plain to even just west of the Apps.

Right now if I were to pick a solution (trough over northeast being too suppressive vs. not) I would lean towards not being too suppressive, only because the models really do not show a true Greenland block. The models are showing an east based -NAO with actually a very fast flow over the northern/western Atlantic, which does not favor a slow moving trough over the northeast. Therefor, I currently favor the models that bring the initial trough out of the northeast a little faster.

Now, from here we still need to see a legitimate phase to get a stronger storm spreading snows into parts of the Plains/Ohio valley and perhaps parts of the Great Lakes. However, with potentially less confluence over the lakes than with our current storm and two good canidiates for phasing I do think this storm is the next legit threat to track for much of the Ohio Valley into the lower Lakes west into the central/southern Plains.

[Stevo6899]

Very nice write up once again. Seems to me too much has to go right. The good thing is we have seen the confluence move out of the great lakes several times this year (not with this current storm though) but the phasing occured too late for those in the great lakes and ohio valley.

[buckeye]

awesome write up!

[buckeye]

that ukie map looks ominous

[OHweather]

Very nice write up once again. Seems to me too much has to go right. The good thing is we have seen the confluence move out of the great lakes several times this year (not with this current storm though) but the phasing occured too late for those in the great lakes and ohio valley.

Thanks.

awesome write up!

Thanks Buckeye

[Hoosier]

...

We could use more of you.

[Ajdos]

Yeah, I got it from Stebo, I said I was goign to use it for now on.

It perfectly describes winters (and sometimes summers, if the last two summers were any sign) around here.

Last summer I thought was awesome..

[ukrocks]

Awesome write up. You need to post a lot more often.

[cmichweather]

Right now, most models appear to agree that there will be two shortwaves that may phase, and the models appear to all agree on where these shortwaves will be around hour 96, give or take some...

First off, the ECM ensembles. Note how the means have a clear shortwave rounding the corner over the southern Plains, with another shortwave (it's a bit subtle on the means but there) moving southeast over western Canada. The pattern at this point appears supressive, with a decent +PNA with a low over the Aluetians and ridge just off the west coast. In addition, the -NAO has re-emerged by this time frame, with a piece of the polar vortex appearing to act as a west based 50/50 low. This is creating a good amount of confluence back over the Great Lakes (again) which would likely keep any storm rather south and weak, if it persisted.

The op ECM is fairly similar to its ensembles. The op is more amplified than the ensembles with both shortwaves that may phase, however the ensembles are obviously smoothed some due to being a mean of many different solutions. When it comes to the location of the shortwaves the op is in fairly good agreement with the ensembles here. The op ECM is also close to the ECM ensemble mean here with the placement of the +PNA, -NAO, and trough/west based 50/50 over New England.

The op ECM shows some phasing potential, but again if the pattern held its ground from hour 96, any storm would stay south or weak due to the confluence over the Great Lakes due to the trough over New England.

The GFS ensembles appear to be different in some ways than the ECM and its ensembles. The means are showing a slightly weaker shortwave over the lower Plains at hour 96. When looking at the individual members which we will do in a second, it is obvious that while some members show a more amplified shortwave like the op ECM, many more are weaker with it and perhaps a tad farther east. In addition to handling the southern shortwave differently, the GFS ensemble means have a strong +PNA and have the trough over New England farther west, which would further supress and storm threat.

The members, as shown above, are torn between a more amplified and slower moving southern shortwave (which would make it easier for a stronger and more complete phase) and a faster, flatter shortwave, which is why the means show a weaker and more progressive southern shortwave than the ECM and its ensemble mean. This likely contributes to the GFS ensembles eventually showing a weaker mean solution.

The op 12z GFS is more amplified with the southern stream shortwave than a good portion of the ensemble members and appears to be slightly weaker than the ensembles with the +PNA ridge off the west coast. This is a step towards the ECM and its ensembles compared to most GFS ensemble members. However, the op GFS is like most ensembles in showing a stronger and farther west trough over New England, which again would crush our hopes for a decent storm back west over the Plains/OV/Great Lakes.

The UKMET at hour 96 is in agreement in a shortwave dropping down over western Canada and another shortwave amplifying over the southern Plains. The UKMET appears to favor the ECM and its ensembles with a slightly more progressive trough over the northeast.

As we roll the ECM ensemble means ahead, we see that a few key changes occur.

First off, the mean shows a weakening of the -NAO, causing the trough to move out of the northeast, weakening confluence over the Great Lakes. This gives us more room for a stronger storm that comes west. The ensembles also appear to be attempting to phase our two shortwaves, with one larger, slower moving trough over the Plains at hour 120.

The op ECM agrees with the ensembles in weakening the -NAO (note the fast flow over Greenland/north Atlantic, this is NOT conducive to a trough remaining over the northeast) and in begining to move the trough out of the northeast. This begins to weaken confluence over the Great Lakes. The ECM also appears to begin entangling the two shortwaves, with a broader trough that is slowing down. The ECM is obviously still sharper with the two shortwaves because it is not smoothed out by many slightly different solutions. Both the ECM and its ensembles are beginning to weaken the +PNA.

The GFS ensembles also show a broader trough slowing down, suggesting there will be a window for phasing as our northern shortwave moves southeast. However, the GFS ensemble mean is significantly slower in moving troughing out of the northeast, meaning there is still too much confluence over the Great Lakes to keep a strong storm from moving north towards the Ohio Valley.

A couple lone members appear to show the trough moving out of the northeast and appear to be slowing the southern shortwave down enough for a potential phase, however most other members are too slow in moving the trough out of the northeast to get a strongly phased solution. Most members appear to keep in place a stronger +PNA ridge as well on the west coast.

The op GFS is actually faster in pulling the trough out of the northeast than most of its ensembles, and appears to be slowing the southern shortwave enough for a potential phase, so the op GFS is not yet all gloom and doom, up until this point.

The UKMET looks close to the ECM and the ECM ensemble mean, as it pulls the trough out of the northeast and appears to show both shortwaves attempting to phase over the Midwest. There is a surface reflection on the UKMET developing along the Gulf coast.

FWIW, the GGEM on its 12z run was MUCH slower in bringing the trough out of the northeast, and shears out the initial southern shortwave, meaning any storm would be from the next two shortwaves coming down, which is why the 12z run appeared to show a developing storm a couple days later than say the ECM at the end of its run. I am discounting the GGEM solution for now as most other models are much faster in lifting the trough out of the northeast, which makes sense given the fast flow developing over the northern Atlantic.

As we roll the ECM ensembles ahead another 24 hours, the trough further lifts out of the northeast and there appears to be enough relaxation in the flow over the eastern US to allow a storm to attempt to run north should we see a phasing of our two pieces of energy. The ensembles appear to hint at an initial storm riding into the OV, but in the end do show a coastal low taking over:

The ECM is close to its ensembles in that it completely lifts the trough out of the northeast, however shows a more complete phase than most ensemble members likely did, which results in a much strong OV primary:

The GFS ensembles do attempt to lift the trough out of the northeast, however appear to be just slightly slower in doing so than the ECM suite, which may be what caused most if not all members to show a weaker storm:

The 12z GFS is a good bit slower in moving the trough out of the northeast. While the op does slow the trough down over the Ohio Valley, there is too much confluence over the northern US for a storm to attempt to move north towards the Ohio Valley. However, the model does hang an inverted trough up into the lower Ohio Valley, which is an initial start to showing something more I suppose:

Like it did most of the run, the 12z UKMET appears to favor the ECM suite, note the intensifying storm over the southeast at hour 144, as the trough closes off over the mid Mississippi Valley:

Glancing at the 0z GFS, it appears to continue hanging the trough back more over the northeast than the 12z ECM/UKMET did.

So, in conclusion:

1. All models looked at above show the same two shortwaves as possible canidates for phasing over similar locations initially (hour 96 on the 12z runs), and many models attempted to slow the southern branch shortwave down enough to give the northern shortwave a chance to catch it. Energy hanging back (or being shown to, at least) over the southwest does not currently appear to be a problem on the models.

2. All models start off with a weak -NAO and trough over the northeastern US as our shortwaves initially amplify over the central/western US. This would squash/supress any storm threat. However, all reliable models except for the GFS/GEFS and GGEM attempt to move this trough out enough to leave room for a storm coming up the east coast or even inland if a phase were to occur.

3. The UKMET, ECM, and ECM ENS means all attempt to show some sort of low either going up the Apps or at least an inverted trough hanging northwest into the Ohio Valley. This leads me to believe that if our trough moves out of the northeast enough that any phased storm would track somewhere from the coastal Plain to even just west of the Apps.

Right now if I were to pick a solution (trough over northeast being too suppressive vs. not) I would lean towards not being too suppressive, only because the models really do not show a true Greenland block. The models are showing an east based -NAO with actually a very fast flow over the northern/western Atlantic, which does not favor a slow moving trough over the northeast. Therefor, I currently favor the models that bring the initial trough out of the northeast a little faster.

Now, from here we still need to see a legitimate phase to get a stronger storm spreading snows into parts of the Plains/Ohio valley and perhaps parts of the Great Lakes. However, with potentially less confluence over the lakes than with our current storm and two good canidiates for phasing I do think this storm is the next legit threat to track for much of the Ohio Valley into the lower Lakes west into the central/southern Plains.

Hey good job on the analysis and collection of data. I will just give you a bit of a heads up don't spend all night working on an analysis for a day 6 event before the days 1-2 unfolds, not that anything you did was wrong i'm impressed by how much data you've collected but it's kinda like doing a 240 hour ecmwf/gfs ensemble comparison it isn't very likely to verify, i only started this thread to show a threat from the pattern with a deep trough off the east coast and several S/W's coming in. Depending on strength i could see a phase event for the GL/MW but i would wait a few more days to do any type of detailed analysis because regardless of how hard you worked, the verification is nearly zilcho at this time frame. There's a reason why the long range AFD's are always shorter than the near term (as long as they don't write the near term for a 24 hour period) the long range is more of a pattern recognition than a snow storm diagnostic. I do like the global signal stuff though like the -nao but just wait a bit to put all your eggs in one basket on an analysis. Do this on friday/saturday and then we can talk about the threat.

[cmichweather]

but hey you did work hard and i'm impressed don't let me discourage you the reason i joined this forum was to learn/get more information on meteorology so to discount someone else before i voice my opinions is a bit hasty, i have a feeling this is going to be one of those semi storms that has potential but never phases as energy is left behind. Its an interesting solution as it can't crank out and move northeast due to the L/W pattern but we'll have to see how the energy is resolved.

[cmichweather]

don't look at the 00z euro seems like it'll be an e/c bomb. Maybe an interior event OHV special but doesn't look good for a further west solution