Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GGEM/JMA/NAM/Navy v EC/GFS (Ukie offshore) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GGEM found a buddy... the JMA is substantially nw from previous runs. 500 cutsoff over TN valley, Very wet 999 low extends from e.ky to central NC. Looks like a nice hit for southeast half of ohio, all of ky, and w. pa. How do you feel about counting on JMA and GGEM vs the others as our only hope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 12z final trends: gfs....finds the southern storm...so not really a trend either way per se nam....hard to tell yet ggem...west ukie...a bit west nogaps...west jma...west euro...way east could be worse See what the euro ensembles show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GGEM/JMA/NAM/Navy v EC/GFS (Ukie offshore) i'm not picking on you, but here's where i don't get the logic. The gfs just flipped dramatically at 12z. The euro also took as much of a shift east as the ggem went west. That being said, why does the gfs and euro get more cred now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 How do you feel about counting on JMA and GGEM vs the others as our only hope? people joke about the jma, and rightfully so, but it does perform well at times. I believe it was the first one to bring back the boxing day storm. More importantly it biases eastcoast lows so to see it go west holds some weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 people joke about the jma, and rightfully so, but it does perform well at times. I believe it was the first one to bring back the boxing day storm. More importantly it biases eastcoast lows so to see it go west holds some weight. I agree. I just wonder why the Euro all the sudden goes way East. Is it finally picking up on something that maybe the others haven't yet or is this just a bogus run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 See what the euro ensembles show. break it to me gently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 JMA lol. GGEM/JMA/NOGAPS is not a model combinaiton I look forward to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I think we all can expect this in a couple of days: http://148.61.161.209/view/index.shtml NOT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 i'm not picking on you, but here's where i don't get the logic. The gfs just flipped dramatically at 12z. The euro also took as much of a shift east as the ggem went west. That being said, why does the gfs and euro get more cred now? because they are in agreement. tough act to beat IMO. ....december 15/07 comes to mind. very surpised the euro flipped like that. i thought for sure the GFS was still going to be doing some serious correcting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I can see buckeyes point here. Think about what models are usually amped up and what are usually more flatter. It is a reason to cause some doubt despite some agreement between the GFS/EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 because they are in agreement. tough act to beat IMO. ....december 15/07 comes to mind. very surpised the euro flipped like that. i thought for sure the GFS was still going to be doing some serious correcting. well we'll see...will be interesting if nothing else to see what models verify. I know you guys think im basing this on weenieism, (well maybe 20%), but actually i'm holding to the dead horse i've been beating for the last 4 days. Put a trough that deep in the miss valley with a nao heading positive and no block and we'll let the rest work itself out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/9978-january-24-26-potential-winter-storm-part-2/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 well i certainly hope Buckeye is right i hate it when we have to start relying on the 18z NAM to keep our hopes up though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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