Harry Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Going solely off of mos data, its still south of OH then east. Better than 0z though lol No.. It is actually east of previous runs. Just off the coast and stays there up to the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Mighty warm too. LOL this may take away our snow we already have this. Gives CMH .04 ZZV .07 lol King has spoken, is it game over or are we riding the ggem train? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Euro is consistant, that's what really matters I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 good...if it's gonna be a coastal i hope it f/\cking rains like hell..... ...im not bitter...lol meh.. They would be mostly snow. Boston and down east Maine really gets hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 good lord what happened to the trough...that looks like crapola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yea. no model consensus at all, but EURO has been the most consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 good lord what happened to the trough...that looks like crapola. LOL huge difference from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 meh.. They would be mostly snow. Boston and down east Maine really gets hammered. you buying it Harry? A high east, low over the great lakes.....not to sound like DT, but there's no way thats snow outside higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 good lord what happened to the trough...that looks like crapola. It actually looked promising at 72hrs and especially 78hrs as it had the look of the others of sending the gulf low right up into the OV but instead the low moves east/ene till reaching the GA/SC coast where it finally decides to head north/ne. ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 should have known something was up when the FIM went east lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 So we basically can't win for losing. 1. The low should just track up the coast or OTS giving the Mid Atlantic and/or New England a nice hit and thus missing all of us while we freeze our buts in light spitting pixie dust. 2. The low takes a favorable track for our rgion, but the marginally cold airmass modifies and threatens us with a potentially warm storm (GGEM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 good...if it's gonna be a coastal i hope it f/\cking rains like hell..... ...im not bitter...lol This storm is going to be mostly southern stream so little cold air to work with wherever it goes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 and........ the euro moves towards the GFS GFS/euro in close agreeement....bad news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It actually looked promising at 72hrs and especially 78hrs as it had the look of the others of sending the gulf low right up into the OV but instead the low moves east/ene till reaching the GA/SC coast where it finally decides to head north/ne. ugh meh, maybe 0z will continue to come into the OV instead of its current solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Euro is consistant, that's what really matters I guess. last night the biggest snows were in NYS/PA.....2 feet this run. 0 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 This is going to be one of those winters where you end up near or maybe even above normal in snowfall officially yet feel so unsatisfied at the end of it. ^^^This assuming most of us even make it to at/above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 and........ the euro moves towards the GFS GFS/euro in close agreeement....bad news. Yep. I don't think the OV has much of a chance at this one. We never really did. Oh well...on to the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 you buying it Harry? A high east, low over the great lakes.....not to sound like DT, but there's no way thats snow outside higher elevations. It is rare but have seen it happen before. I would prefer no low at all over another eastcoast low. That pattern needs to be gone like a bad habit. And to answer your question. Lets just say i would not bet the farm on it. That track across the gulfcoast almost due east does seem a bit suspect considering everything else. Problem is the kicker that drops into southern Canada/near the lakes which might be why the system stays more easterly till reaching the coast. Either way my excitement level has gone to nill with this. Never good to have model dissagrement like this so close in because typically the end results are never good. However they do seem to be honing in on a east of apps low as well by the time it gets this far north and so i am 100% certain that it is a miss for here if it is a southern low. Thus need the northern energy to do something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yep. I don't think the OV has much of a chance at this one. We never really did. Oh well...on to the next one. disagree....I surrender no earlier than tomorrow 12z. no model has a handle on consistency. Just yesterday in this thread several people were huggin on the gfs claiming it's probably onto something with its miller b-ish look. This morning it caved to a more substantial digging trough idea. Now all the models show a substantial trough at 72....after that is when they diverge. I just don't think this is done being written...yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 disagree....I surrender no earlier than tomorrow 12z. no model has a handle on consistency. Just yesterday in this thread several people were huggin on the gfs claiming it's probably onto something with its miller b-ish look. This morning it caved to a more substantial digging trough idea. Now all the models show a substantial trough at 72....after that is when they diverge. I just don't think this is done being written...yet MEH.. You guys are probably still in the game but nw of there. NO. Only way we get something is if it is all northern energy that does not dive south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 disagree....I surrender no earlier than tomorrow 12z. no model has a handle on consistency. Just yesterday in this thread several people were huggin on the gfs claiming it's probably onto something with its miller b-ish look. This morning it caved to a more substantial digging trough idea. Now all the models show a substantial trough at 72....after that is when they diverge. I just don't think this is done being written...yet Well, I am in Southern Indiana. I am calling it off for us at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 disagree....I surrender no earlier than tomorrow 12z. no model has a handle on consistency. Just yesterday in this thread several people were huggin on the gfs claiming it's probably onto something with its miller b-ish look. This morning it caved to a more substantial digging trough idea. Now all the models show a substantial trough at 72....after that is when they diverge. I just don't think this is done being written...yet I'm riding the ggem now, not because it shows the apps runner, but because it makes the most sense of what should happen based on the trough and the upper air data. I'm not seeing much of anything to stop this from continuing the come north instead of comin north only to suddenly make an east shift. I'm probably wrong but I'm not ready to throw in the towel yet. March 08 didn't have a good handle until what 48hrs out and even then it wasn't great I remember 24hrs out a 4-8" forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It is rare but have seen it happen before. I would prefer no low at all over another eastcoast low. That pattern needs to be gone like a bad habit. And to answer your question. Lets just say i would not bet the farm on it. That track across the gulfcoast almost due east does seem a bit suspect considering everything else. Problem is the kicker that drops into southern Canada/near the lakes which might be why the system stays more easterly till reaching the coast. Either way my excitement level has gone to nill with this. Never good to have model dissagrement like this so close in because typically the end results are never good. However they do seem to be honing in on a east of apps low as well by the time it gets this far north and so i am 100% certain that it is a miss for here if it is a southern low. Thus need the northern energy to do something. check this out....the ggem has the low you are referring to over NE while the euro has it over the UP of MI....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I'm riding the ggem now, not because it shows the apps runner, but because it makes the most sense of what should happen based on the trough and the upper air data. I'm not seeing much of anything to stop this from continuing the come north instead of comin north only to suddenly make an east shift. I'm probably wrong but I'm not ready to throw in the towel yet. March 08 didn't have a good handle until what 48hrs out and even then it wasn't great I remember 24hrs out a 4-8" forecast. it really sux that the euro went east....but at the same token it isn't exactly an oddity this season. Recall 72 hrs out it took the boxing day storm OTS and lead to the egg all over DT's face...twice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 it really sux that the euro went east....but at the same token it isn't exactly an oddity this season. Recall 72 hrs out it took the boxing day storm OTS and lead to the egg all over DT's face...twice Let's hope for a repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
passmaster16 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 check this out....the ggem has the low you are referring to over NE while the euro has it over the UP of MI....lol So is it the position of that low that is dictating the east vs west track? If so, what is a more logicial placement of that low? The GGEM solution or Euro? What was the GFS doing with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 check this out....the ggem has the low you are referring to over NE while the euro has it over the UP of MI....lol If only that were stronger and the lead southern wave slower. lol BTW.. Amazingly ( well not really i guess considering the euro ) that SV wrf/nam says a coast hugger with rain east of apps and snow in the higher elevations well away from i95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GGEM found a buddy... the JMA is substantially nw from previous runs. 500 cutsoff over TN valley, Very wet 999 low extends from e.ky to central NC. Looks like a nice hit for southeast half of ohio, all of ky, and w. pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Let's hope for a repeat. I more then anyone has probably given that man more leeway but yeah that is done. Plus i think i pissed him off because i jumped on him at SV when he admitted he trolled that CtBlizz on facebook and they brought the **** there. He always bitches about people doing it to him and then he pulls that. I said it was open season as seing how he admitted that and he has not been back since. Oh well. He can kiss my ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 12z final trends: gfs....finds the southern storm...so not really a trend either way per se nam....hard to tell yet ggem...west ukie...a bit west nogaps...west jma...west euro...way east could be worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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