Stebo Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 UKMET h72 Remind you of something? The NAM only further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 it sure looks to me (im not the best though) that the GFS is struggling by hr 54 to maintain consistency with the energy out west. IMO thats a red flag for the GFS, which as baro mentioned last night, is one of its strengths--- stability. it also appears to have somewhat trended towards the other models with that. or i could be just using weenie goggles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 i wish there were more northern branch dropping in.....gonna be hard to keep cold temps...although 850 0 is down into the lower TN at that point. Also looks like it could pinch off Can't directly compare because I only have access to the UKIE extended range in 24 hour intervals, but the 0z run at 96 had the sfc low near the GA coast. I'm thinking if we could see the 12z run at 84 it'd be way NW of that. Unless it's just slower with the progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 it sure looks to me (im not the best though) that the GFS is struggling by hr 54 to maintain consistency with the energy out west. IMO thats a red flag for the GFS, which as baro mentioned last night, is one of its strengths--- stability. it also appears to have somewhat trended towards the other models with that. or i could be just using weenie goggles. Something tells me that the GFS is going to trend toward the other models, not the other way around this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 it sure looks to me (im not the best though) that the GFS is struggling by hr 54 to maintain consistency with the energy out west. IMO thats a red flag for the GFS, which as baro mentioned last night, is one of its strengths--- stability. it also appears to have somewhat trended towards the other models with that. or i could be just using weenie goggles. out to 66 on accuwx....definitely going more towards the nam.. Big changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 UKMET h72 Remind you of something? lol, what B_I said in order for us to cash in. No phasing and the ul trough digging towards the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 yep huge changs by 60 on the GFS vs previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GFS hinting an Apps runner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 well if i have to get screwed, i'd rather it be due to this thing cutting too far west and hitting you guys in MI, IN, IL.....screw east of the apps and the coastal stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GFS hinting an Apps runner? Strong coastal it seems...big changes with H500 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well the GFS is definitely emphasizing the southern stream more this run, but the trough axis is already too far east to do us any good. But it's a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I guess that little clipper will usher in a little cold air ahead of the main system.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well the GFS is definitely emphasizing the southern stream more this run, but the trough axis is already too far east to do us any good. But it's a step in the right direction. Yes the trend from all the models so far have been in the right direct to some extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Well the GFS is definitely emphasizing the southern stream more this run, but the trough axis is already too far east to do us any good. But it's a step in the right direction. gfs trended much better....but at 84 im still not seeing how it comes north. probably will ride off the ma coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 off the east coast, just far enough to give impacts for coast line by 120 , eastern 1/3 of Maine gets hit good , Ohio, KY, WV get very very little this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Ok Ok let's put the nail in the coffin here about detroit this winter. Just about every location that should see snow in the U.S. is at average or well above. Sure there are a few locations such as DC and Balt/a few places in IA but the number is small. To each is own I understand that, but I could care less about below average temps and above average snow cover. We have gone over this already. Getting excited about snow cover is like getting excited that your street is wet from rain or possible ponding on the roadways. It's just been too cold for significant snow which is even more frustrating. While we are at average snowfall, it has been frustrating seeing every possible significant storm either miss us or not play out. Yes we have had two 5 inch storms but around here thats nuisance. We have one of the lowest running totals being this far north. Yes its frustrating knowing your area will probably be the last to witness a significant event but as DMC noted, until you have experienced it a few times, it's hard not to get frustrated. The bottom line is there have been atleast 6 significant storms, and not one has hit this area. I no longer get frustrated like I used to but it still irks me. We all need to understand everyone is different and people vent in different ways. Sure some of the complaining and valley posts dont belong in here, but I admire the opportunity to go OT sometimes and as hard as it is, posters need to stop jumping all over somebody publicly. So lets lighten up and enjoy the weather. Ok Ok let's put the nail in the coffin here about detroit this winter. As a climo stats person, it is completely irking to see CONSTANT misconceptions and lies being thrown around about this winter. I dont keep bringing it up, Im just the fool who responds to the nonsense complaints with some logic. Just about every location that should see snow in the U.S. is at average or well above That is completely false. Certainly more than half are above average, but just about every place that sees snow in the US? I think not. Rapid City, Denver, Toledo, Amarillo, DC/Baltimore, Milwaukee just off the top of my head, are all below normal. I could go through NWS climate and find many more, but why? And, umm, Detroit IS at average. Getting excited about snow cover is like getting excited that your street is wet from rain or possible ponding on the roadways. Wow. This is clearly an opinion, but I can guarentee you that most snowlovers in the north would side with me on this one. WINTER in the NORTH is about SNOWCOVER. I just cannot believe how many of the newer posters on this forum from this region would be a MUCH better fit on the east coast than in the Great lakes. They dont even know what "winter" is, they just like a good snowstorm. The bottom line is there have been atleast 6 significant storms, and not one has hit this area. December 12th. Dont tell me it wasnt significant. And dont tell me it didnt hit this area. While we are at average snowfall, it has been frustrating seeing every possible significant storm either miss us or not play out. Both the Dec 12 and Jan 11 snowstorms reached/exceeded expectations. So lets lighten up and enjoy the weather. LOL thats what Im always trying to do. Some people on here will NEVER "enjoy" the weather, that much is proven when during a snowstorm, they are too busy worried about the 384-hr gfs than the snowstorm that is going on outside their window. They also would never possibly be happy. There will always be something to complain about. Do you think if we saw a 20" snowstorm that melted in a week, they would say, oh well we got the storm, who cares if it melted in a week? I think not. We would hear "omg omg we FINALLY get a huge storm and its gone in a week. Unbelievable. FML. etc etc". Even if it didnt melt, they would find something to complain about, they always do. Well, Ive gone way OT by responding to this stuff in this thread. Sorry mods, but dont Im done with it all. From now on, Im just going to put these people on ignore, something i should have done a long time ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 off the east coast, just far enought to give impacts for coast line as i said we need more n. stream involvement. otherwise this puppy slides east no matter how awesome the trough looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 This is what DT has to say " 0Z EUJRO & CANADIAN COMMENTS-- DISASTER FOR I-95 CITIES !!! Both Models they held and did not change. Both Models show an inland Miller A or Gulf of Mexico Low. The cold High to the North is Gone and it is out to sea. te 0z Euro has the rain snow line into DCA PHL almost all of NJ NYC LI Most of CT and eastern Mass.. Boston goes to +4c at one point at 850 MB." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 wow the UKMET is pretty far west, that would be interesting for alot of people east of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 well the GFS is obviously playing catchup here by hr 54 sig changes arise, trending towards other models but not there yet at all.....a few panels later, heights are still a few hundred miles less amplified..... which then translate through the rest of its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 wow the UKMET is pretty far west, that would be interesting for alot of people east of here. Sorry, but how far west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 wow the UKMET is pretty far west, that would be interesting for alot of people east of here. have you seen it beyond 72? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Harry..any word on the post 84 NAM? Though as buckeye said, extrapolating the nam past 84 is like extrapolating a gfs ens past 384 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 well the GFS is obviously playing catchup here by hr 54 sig changes arise, trending towards other models but not there yet at all.....a few panels later, heights are still a few hundred miles less amplified..... which then translate through the rest of its run. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 as i said we need more n. stream involvement. otherwise this puppy slides east no matter how awesome the trough looks. Didnt BI say yesterday that we dont need northern stream involvement and thats what would push this too far east. It looks to be the northern stream is too fast and its pushes the low too east. We need the gulf low to come north and that only happens if the northern stream is gone or lags behind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Didnt BI say yesterday that we dont need northern stream involvement and thats what would push this too far east. It looks to be the northern stream is too fast and its pushes the low too east. We need the gulf low to come north and that only happens if the northern stream is gone or lags behind i guess im more concerned with the trough becoming so sharp and narrow it pinches off to the north and we end up with a warm southern bowling ball. Maybe baro can chime in on this but what exactly would bring the storm north if not more energy/jet diving in the backside of the trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Didnt BI say yesterday that we dont need northern stream involvement and thats what would push this too far east. It looks to be the northern stream is too fast and its pushes the low too east. We need the gulf low to come north and that only happens if the northern stream is gone or lags behind Correct. Only way it works with the northern is if the northern stream were to dig BEHIND this system and come up from underneath and phasing BEFORE it reaches the apps though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Didnt BI say yesterday that we dont need northern stream involvement and thats what would push this too far east. It looks to be the northern stream is too fast and its pushes the low too east. We need the gulf low to come north and that only happens if the northern stream is gone or lags behind yes it appears to be the case some northern kicker here well obviously the GFS is most likely wrong... we know that now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Correct. Only way it works with the northern is if the northern stream were to dig BEHIND this system and come up from underneath and phasing BEFORE it reaches the apps though. what do you think the chances of that are based on the modeling youve seen so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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