Ajdos Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 ANy good news?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yeah it is definitely a pretty pathetic chunk of land. No trees, flat, ugly brown river that magically results in a lot of deaths of local residents, trains everywhere , etc. etc. Can you tell I didn't like Grand Forks? In reality though--I was corrected by a guy at the local NWS when I was there as a volunteer--so I do the same now too haha when it is mentioned as a valley. lol ya it really is. Hey Baro how about that 192 pattern on the euro, i've seen several models along with the euro hint at a strong northern stream wave that may bring down and arctic front. The euro has quite the solution for some blizzard conditions across the upper midwest........ maybe since this has been such a successful thread i'll start a thread for that threat and the MW can finally get their epic storm since i fail at thread starting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 ANy good news?? The big three are finally making a profit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 lol ya it really is. Hey Baro how about that 192 pattern on the euro, i've seen several models along with the euro hint at a strong northern stream wave that may bring down and arctic front. The euro has quite the solution for some blizzard conditions across the upper midwest........ maybe since this has been such a successful thread i'll start a thread for that threat and the MW can finally get their epic storm since i fail at thread starting. Goodness sakes--the Euro would be a dream bomb LOL. I would not start anything yet. I can truly say I have NEVER seen anything like that in my life--we never saw a blizzard track like that. Big issue though is the models will have big time problems with this Pacific jet pattern and the amplitude of the PNA ridge. I wouldn't bother yet unless it shows up for another run and gets some backing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The big three are finally making a profit. ahahhahaa hahaha Im about to puke after 2 many blue ***********s lmfao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 ahahhahaa hahaha Im about to puke after 2 many blue ***********s lmfao Part of me wants to know what the **** are and part of me doesn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yes it definitely has the potential to be a blockbuster. The GFK/Fargo folks are fine--but as usual--the small towns will suffer big. Some of the highways may be in big trouble too. All my GFK friends are keeping me up to date on the flooding. Always a yearly discussion after 1997. Ya its going to be bad, we aren't at 97 level SWE but our fall precip was through the roof and the rivers are at near record levels. Add another 2 months of "average" snow and a rapid thaw near April and it'll be a crazy situation. You should see the the fargo mayor he's such a dbag saying the nws is over hyping the event and that it all depends of the spring precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 lol ya it really is. Hey Baro how about that 192 pattern on the euro, i've seen several models along with the euro hint at a strong northern stream wave that may bring down and arctic front. The euro has quite the solution for some blizzard conditions across the upper midwest........ maybe since this has been such a successful thread i'll start a thread for that threat and the MW can finally get their epic storm since i fail at thread starting. Let's wait and see how this one pans out. If its a miss for everyone, you should bow out lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Part of me wants to know what the **** are and part of me doesn't BLUE MOFOS HAHAHAHAHAH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Goodness sakes--the Euro would be a dream bomb LOL. I would not start anything yet. I can truly say I have NEVER seen anything like that in my life--we never saw a blizzard track like that. Big issue though is the models will have big time problems with this Pacific jet pattern and the amplitude of the PNA ridge. I wouldn't bother yet unless it shows up for another run and gets some backing. Oh ya that is model fantasy land but i was starting to get pumped to watch a trough crash into that ridge and the arctic front come south, i'll give it another few days of runs before i start the upper midwest blizz thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 BLUE MOFOS HAHAHAHAHAH yep didn't help... I assume maybe you mean labatts? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Oh ya that is model fantasy land but i was starting to get pumped to watch a trough crash into that ridge and the arctic front come south, i'll give it another few days of runs before i start the upper midwest blizz thread. Noooo we need Great Lakes blizz thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Let's wait and see how this one pans out. If its a miss for everyone, you should bow out lol.. lol see with this thread i'm still going to get hit by the northern stream S/W i'm thinking 2-4 so i jinxed another storm towards the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Noooo we need Great Lakes blizz thread but then you'll be pissed at 84 hrs when it shows the beast coming in way west and you'll be arguing that the western ridge will be more pumped up and it'll bomb out over you. I'll keep it civil til i know we are gonna get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Loop this and you may reconsider starting the blizzard threat too early. Seriously though--the models are going to be AWFUL with the breakdown of these hydro dynamically unstable waves off the mean tropospheric jet flow. Looks like the GFS sends weaker waves through while the Euro is taking one relatively large and amplified baroclinic wave over the east. Pac ridge. http://weather.utah....fs004&r=PA&d=TS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Loop this and you may reconsider starting the blizzard threat too early. Seriously though--the models are going to be AWFUL with the breakdown of these hydro dynamically unstable waves off the mean tropospheric jet flow. Looks like the GFS sends weaker waves through while the Euro is taking one relatively large and amplified baroclinic wave over the east. Pac ridge. http://weather.utah....fs004&r=PA&d=TS no i checked it, i was more or less joking it's going to be a few days before we can see trends between the gfs and euro and the pacific pattern is going to be troublesome for both models. I just like having it show up on multiple model runs more or less. I'm thinking Sunday night/Monday is a fair date to start if models seem to form a consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 no i checked it, i was more or less joking it's going to be a few days before we can see trends between the gfs and euro and the pacific pattern is going to be troublesome for both models. I just like having it show up on multiple model runs more or less. I'm thinking Sunday night/Monday is a fair date to start if models seem to form a consensus. Right I was joking should have tossed in a LOL at the end of "Loop this and you may reconsider starting the blizzard threat too early." You can definitely start one if you wish haha--the GFS ensemble backs the threat of that polar intrusion over the Bering Sea and a ridge flattening beast wave passing into Canada. It sure is a threat and I am hoping something ECM pans out. That would be sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Thoughts on the 6z nam? I'm not sure what to think hr 84 wish it went out further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Thoughts on the 6z nam? I'm not sure what to think hr 84 wish it went out further. Likely similar to CMC in that it may start to try and develop a low that would run inland of the Apps but with the low level warm air advection east of the Apps--it will develop an inland coastal low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Good discussion from indy about this event. If you want a synopsis, The line in bold says it all. THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS THE SYSTEM PROGGED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FIRST...A WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER LEVELS WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THE STRONGER MONDAY/TUES LOW. MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO THE FIRST WEAKER WAVE. IT WILL JUST SKIRT THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MON MORN...BUT IT COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL LOW ON MONDAY/TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN TERRIBLE AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME. CURRENTLY...THE GFS IS THE OUTLYING MODEL...AND THE EURO/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT. THE GFS HAS THE NORTHERNMOST TRACK...AND BRINGS THE SYSTEM RIGHT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA...WHEREAS THE EURO AND GEM BOTH TAKE MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TRACK. THE MODELS ALSO DIFFER IN TIMING OF SYSTEM. THE GFS IS THE FASTEST...AND THE EURO/GEM ARE ALMOST A DAY SLOWER AT THIS POINT IN TIME. IF MODELS ALL COME INTO LINE WITH THE GFS...IT COULD BECOME A DECENT SNOW PRODUCER WITH THE MAIN VORT MAX MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE TUE 06Z-12Z TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...IF IT TAKES THE SOUTHERN ROUTE LIKE THE EURO/GEM SUGGEST...THE BEST FORCING WILL BE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS A CUT-OFF LOW FORMS. HAVE A FEELING IT WILL GO SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA SINCE NAM IS ALREADY HINTING AT THE SOUTHERN TRACK...BUT LATEST NAM RUN JUST ISN/T OUT FAR ENOUGH YET TO MAKE THIS DETERMINATION. LATEST HPC GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE IF MODELS ALL TAKE THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...IF FOR SOME REASON EVERYTHING SHIFTS NORTH...IT COULD HAVE A MUCH DIFFERENT RESULT IN SNOW TOTALS. AT THIS TIME...WENT WITH A 15:1 RATIO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 06z GFS still locked in on its Northern stream dominant flow, and the system moves out to sea with little fanfare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 06z GFS still locked in on its Northern stream dominant flow, and the system moves out to sea with little fanfare. It is pretty amazing. I have been tracking this thing in the Mid-Atlantic for a few days. The differences as early as 36 hours are astounding. The data assimilations systems are almost sampling completely different things it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It is pretty amazing. I have been tracking this thing in the Mid-Atlantic for a few days. The differences as early as 36 hours are astounding. The data assimilations systems are almost sampling completely different things it seems. Which way you leaning? Personally it seems the NAM would be more correct, but based upon how this season has played out, the GFS is certainly on the table as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Which way you leaning? Personally it seems the NAM would be more correct, but based upon how this season has played out, the GFS is certainly on the table as well. Someone asked me the exact same question in the MA forum early this evening (before the 0Z ECM came out--and the latest ECM doesn't change the answer really)--my answer: "The angle that the secondary wave comes in as it crosses the BC mountains suggests this will have an early E-SE progression. Can't get around that--all models have keyed in on that. This will definitely be farther E as the wave heads southward through the CONUS--and it likely won't dig into the GOM like some runs had. Because this won't be digging as far S with the secondary jet developing into the Rockies--it does seem this wave will never fully "cutoff" from the mean flow--and will likely remain progressive. Even the NAM suggests that. This won't be bombing and crawling along the coast like runs had last night--or the Euro as early as a couple days ago. I don't think the uber east-progressive GFS operational will verify--but something likely in between. There is still a threat this tracks farther E along the coast--with less warm air issues if it continues E and progressive--although that is a small threat. The inland runner looks far less likely though." That said, the GFS operational is a stalwart. 06Z GFS ensembles will be interesting, but for what it is worth, the 0Z ensembles are still W of the GFS operational early on and are not as progressive. The chance of this being GFS 06Z verbatim are low (less than 10%), but it does seem the solution may lie closer to the GFS height fields than the other guidance as they have trended more progressive early in their simulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Someone asked me the exact same question in the MA forum early this evening (before the 0Z ECM came out--and the latest ECM doesn't change the answer really)--my answer: "The angle that the secondary wave comes in as it crosses the BC mountains suggests this will have an early E-SE progression. Can't get around that--all models have keyed in on that. This will definitely be farther E as the wave heads southward through the CONUS--and it likely won't dig into the GOM like some runs had. Because this won't be digging as far S with the secondary jet developing into the Rockies--it does seem this wave will never fully "cutoff" from the mean flow--and will likely remain progressive. Even the NAM suggests that. This won't be bombing and crawling along the coast like runs had last night--or the Euro as early as a couple days ago. I don't think the uber east-progressive GFS operational will verify--but something likely in between. There is still a threat this tracks farther E along the coast--with less warm air issues if it continues E and progressive--although that is a small threat. The inland runner looks far less likely though." That said, the GFS operational is a stalwart. 06Z GFS ensembles will be interesting, but for what it is worth, the 0Z ensembles are still W of the GFS operational early on and are not as progressive. The chance of this being GFS 06Z verbatim are low (less than 10%), but it does seem the solution may lie closer to the GFS height fields than the other guidance as they have trended more progressive early in their simulations. Unfortunately I feel that this is probably correct, which would be boring from a personal standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I'm writing this winter off as the worst ever. I'm done. Wow. Just wow. You literally have ZERO concept of climo. Maybe its good that your done actually, because if this is your worst winter ever, you have SERIOUS issues. This is going to be probably remembered by the general public as a brutal winter. I mean seriously. We have seen well below normal temperatures, probably enroute to one of the 20 coldest winters on record. We have seen well above normal snowcover, probably en route to one of the 20 whitest winters on record. Snowfall itself is right around normal, with officially 21.6" at DTW as we near the halfway mark of winter, which includes 2 decent (not massive) snowstorms and a ton of nickel/dime stuff. With projections from several that we will be seeing a very active Feb/Mar, this is still possibly en route to a top 20 snowiest winter, at the very least above normal snowfall. Take a look at some past winters sometime. This is Detroit, not Houghton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 looks like a sharp gradient of snowfall again with this system, like the last one, for nebraska/iowa/kansas/missouri. Im afraid im gonna be stuck on the west side of this one with around 2 or 3 inches. I was on the east side of the last one with 3". 06z nam really beffed up the amounts, but is suspect. Heaviest axis of snow about 20-40 miles to my east and northeast. Ill wait until 12z models come in before i get on the bus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I'm writing this winter off as the worst ever. I'm done. I'm writing you off as the worst poster ever. I'm done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I'm writing you off as the worst poster ever. I'm done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I'm writing you off as the worst poster ever. I'm done. OMG that just broke my heart!! NOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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