Paweatherguy1 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 i know alot can change but i think i'm sold on the coast hugger/possible slight inland track i don't think this is a good performer for anyone outside of our new pitt forum member but we'll see. Models certainly can come further west but the nam is clearly an outlier right now and the ensembles haven't looked pretty, we'll see though. I'm going to root for a track over Harrisburg that destroys us all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 i know alot can change but i think i'm sold on the coast hugger/possible slight inland track i don't think this is a good performer for anyone outside of our new pitt forum member but we'll see. Models certainly can come further west but the nam is clearly an outlier right now and the ensembles haven't looked pretty, we'll see though. Say what? NAM looks nearly identical to the Euro save timing difference. It would likely look very Euro like extrapolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 EURO has 4.2 2m temps next Tuesday too lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 off note i hope that western ridge doesn't get us above freezing i kinda want this whole winter to be below 32 to preserve the snowpack so you guys can watch the record flooding on tv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Actually .12 for DET lol tomatoe to-mah-toe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Lexington gets .65 and not too far NE in ashland, ky they only get .18 and thats from tues to friday.. So sharp cutoff obviously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Say what? NAM looks nearly identical to the Euro save timing difference. It would likely look very Euro like extrapolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 off note i hope that western ridge doesn't get us above freezing i kinda want this whole winter to be below 32 to preserve the snowpack so you guys can watch the record flooding on tv. The Red River Floodplain. "Valley" is a misnomer since it isn't a valley. What a great place to build cities! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 welcome as far as i'm concerned, i like the pittsburgh crowd....us west-of-the-appies posters have to stick together. Yeah, if its west of I-95 it doesn't exist in the mind of certain people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It dont look bad, but still isnt giving us anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 They cant get much worse than .06 LMAO.. You could get .00 and be 50 degrees and sunny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 You could get .00 and be 50 degrees and sunny I suppose. I'm happy with the snow I got, so if this dont pan out, Oh well. No big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 the euro has a stronger northern stream 500mb wave the euro digs the northern wave further south. It's not by that much but the extrap of the 500 on the nam at hr 84 allow the southern stream to pump the 500 mb pattern up further along the eastcoast. I mean they aren't that far off but the nam 500 mb pattern at 84 is most likely 2 amplified based on how the 72 euro has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the euro has a stronger northern stream 500mb wave the euro digs the northern wave further south. It's not by that much but the extrap of the 500 on the nam at hr 84 allow the southern stream to pump the 500 mb pattern up further along the eastcoast. I mean they aren't that far off but the nam 500 mb pattern at 84 is most likely 2 amplified based on how the 72 euro has it. Most of the low level WAA in the low levels is on the east side of the Apps and is trying to displace the CAD on the NAM-once you get to 84 hrs--the height ridging is now developing over VA as one would expect with the Apps and the blocking of the WAA--honestly to me they would likely end very much the same as the NAM is still positive tilt as the DT/shortwave is still coming around the base of the positive tilt trough at 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 heavy precip is heading due north straight for ohio out of the gulf before the storm at the last second takes all its fun east. it literally stops right at the southern ohio border, but the axis is beautiful until the shift. i found that intriguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 If I had to guess now, considering the models problems, this will be a I-95(Coastal plain track) or just to the west of I-95 if a storm developes. Good track for Central/Western PA and into Eastern Ohio. Congrads. I am throwing in the flag on this one for Western Ohio. Yeah the Apps runner threat has become even lower (never was much of a threat) since all models are now progressive and never fully cut the southern stream off. The WAA is dominant east of the Apps and even on the CMC it tries to crawl up the apps then it just pops a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 The Red River Floodplain. "Valley" is a misnomer since it isn't a valley. What a great place to build cities! lol well they needed trade posts to trade fur with Winnipeg so you can't fault them there. What do you mean it isn't a valley? West of the redriver valley the terrain certainly increases, i'd argue east of the valley there really isn't much of an increase but only has a slight increase as you go west. I guess it isn't a true "valley" but all the drainage ends up in the center of the valley due to the elevation changed on both sides of the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 lol well they needed trade posts to trade fur with Winnipeg so you can't fault them there. What do you mean it isn't a valley? West of the redriver valley the terrain certainly increases, i'd argue east of the valley there really isn't much of an increase but only has a slight increase as you go west. I guess it isn't a true "valley" but all the drainage ends up in the center of the valley due to the elevation changed on both sides of the valley. It is a floodplain. It is the former remnants of Lake Agassiz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 It is a floodplain. It is the former remnants of Lake Agassiz. no i know it's a floodplain i was just wondering why you didn't think it was a valley? I know it's not a true mountain/valley scenario. BTW OT we are reopening the lake agassiz chapter of the ams at the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 lol well they needed trade posts to trade fur with Winnipeg so you can't fault them there. What do you mean it isn't a valley? West of the redriver valley the terrain certainly increases, i'd argue east of the valley there really isn't much of an increase but only has a slight increase as you go west. I guess it isn't a true "valley" but all the drainage ends up in the center of the valley due to the elevation changed on both sides of the valley. The reason it is not a true valley is the geological way it was created. Here is a quick wiki blurb on the geology. The word "valley" is a misnomer. While the Red River drains the region, it did not create a valley wider than a few hundred feet, and the much-wider floodplain is the lakebed of the glacial lake.[5] It is remarkably flat; from its origin near Breckenridge, Minnesota to the international border near Emerson, Manitoba, its gradient is only about 1:5000, or approximately 1 foot per mile. The river, slow and small in most seasons, does not have the energy to cut a gorge. Instead it meanders across the silty bottomlands in its progress north.[5][6] In consequence, high water has nowhere to go, except to spread across the old lakebed in "overland flooding". Heavy snows or rains, on saturated or frozen soil, has caused a number of catastophic floods, which often are made worse by the fact that snowmelt starts in the warmer south, and waters flowing northward are often dammed or slowed by ice.[5][7] These periodic floods have the effect of refilling, in part, the ancient lake.[6] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 The reason it is not a true valley is the geological way it was created. Here is a quick wiki blurb on the geology. The word "valley" is a misnomer. While the Red River drains the region, it did not create a valley wider than a few hundred feet, and the much-wider floodplain is the lakebed of the glacial lake.[5] It is remarkably flat; from its origin near Breckenridge, Minnesota to the international border near Emerson, Manitoba, its gradient is only about 1:5000, or approximately 1 foot per mile. The river, slow and small in most seasons, does not have the energy to cut a gorge. Instead it meanders across the silty bottomlands in its progress north.[5][6] In consequence, high water has nowhere to go, except to spread across the old lakebed in "overland flooding". Heavy snows or rains, on saturated or frozen soil, has caused a number of catastophic floods, which often are made worse by the fact that snowmelt starts in the warmer south, and waters flowing northward are often dammed or slowed by ice.[5][7] These periodic floods have the effect of refilling, in part, the ancient lake.[6] oh ok its a geological definition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 oh ok its a geological definition A geological definition but I never honestly considered that crap-hole a valley when I was there. The major terrain change (and even then it is small) occurs mostly near the very edges of the "valley". In other words--the terrain elevation change is TINY compared to the overall width of the depression. The depression would need to be about 1/10th of the width to really be a valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 A geological definition but I never honestly considered that crap-hole a valley when I was there. The major terrain change (and even then it is small) occurs mostly near the very edges of the "valley". In other words--the terrain elevation change is TINY compared to the overall width of the depression. The depression would need to be about 1/10th of the width to really be a valley. Ya i think the eastern edge of the valley is the toughest area to define as a terrain change, the western edge of the valley i believe is a decent change in elevation you can certainly tell as you head west that you've left the "valley" the eastern edge is more of gradual change that is tough to notice. It certainly isn't a classical valley example but for the great plains i guess its the best they can do to qualify as a valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 No offense but you can tell we are stir crazy when we are talking about geology/topography Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 No offense but you can tell we are stir crazy when we are talking about geology/topography LOL I was sitting here thinking "wow this room sure got boring." Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 No offense but you can tell we are stir crazy when we are talking about geology/topography lol i never had a shot at the "phased" storm i'm just pumped for the northern stream energy adding to the snowpack, i love reading the forums in fargo and the people in denial, they are within a few tenths of an inch of setting record for SWE and we have a few months left, maybe when we hite 4.5-5 inches of SWE they'll realize it'll take a perfect melt situation to have a non historic flood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 LOL I was sitting here thinking "wow this room sure got boring." Haha. officially we should go OT but its late and i'm sure we aren't cluttering the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Ya i think the eastern edge of the valley is the toughest area to define as a terrain change, the western edge of the valley i believe is a decent change in elevation you can certainly tell as you head west that you've left the "valley" the eastern edge is more of gradual change that is tough to notice. It certainly isn't a classical valley example but for the great plains i guess its the best they can do to qualify as a valley. Yeah it is definitely a pretty pathetic chunk of land. No trees, flat, ugly brown river that magically results in a lot of deaths of local residents, trains everywhere , etc. etc. No offense but you can tell we are stir crazy when we are talking about geology/topography Can you tell I didn't like Grand Forks? In reality though--I was corrected by a guy at the local NWS when I was there as a volunteer--so I do the same now too haha when it is mentioned as a valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 lol i never had a shot at the "phased" storm i'm just pumped for the northern stream energy adding to the snowpack, i love reading the forums in fargo and the people in denial, they are within a few tenths of an inch of setting record for SWE and we have a few months left, maybe when we hite 4.5-5 inches of SWE they'll realize it'll take a perfect melt situation to have a non historic flood. Yes it definitely has the potential to be a blockbuster. The GFK/Fargo folks are fine--but as usual--the small towns will suffer big. Some of the highways may be in big trouble too. All my GFK friends are keeping me up to date on the flooding. Always a yearly discussion after 1997. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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