baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 They have significantly improved sub-grid scale convective parametrization with the new update and the spectral resolution increase. http://webcache.goog...n&ct=clnk&gl=us The PPT-a good read. Much better than the HTML link I posted. Even then, the GFS synoptically is terrific--and it is very stable and not prone to wild swings. It is very useful in tracking changes in the height field, for instance. Great forecasting tool even if the solution isn't right per se. EMC_Decision_GFS_Res_Incr.ppt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I would probably say the 12z. The new one is to fast and running away from the northern stream. i see that....i also see the ridging out west isn't as good... I'll concede those points as well as the speeding up of the sw. I'm still not sure im buying a move to the gfs though...might need some explanation on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yesterday when the 0Z GFS came out the weenies were comparing that mini bowling ball to Superstorm 1993 in the eastern region threads. I had to deny them. lol they must have had a creative imagination to have the h5 pattern match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 quite honestly if you were to ask me which map looked more ominous wrt spinning up a storm, it would be tonites 00z. neutral tilt earlier, more ridging out ahead, very sharp. oh. im certainly no expert they both look great to me lol im just going off what Baro told us to keep an eye on, and based on tonights runs, he's right on the money (no surprise) with the trough position further east on tonights run (a nod to the GFS), heights just have enough time to amplify sufficientnly it semes perhaps the models will come up with a new twist tomorrow?....its true, we are still several days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 lol they must have had a creative imagination to have the h5 pattern match. jb's been spout'n about march '93 and planting the seeds weenie hype Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 The PPT-a good read. Much better than the HTML link I posted. Even then, the GFS synoptically is terrific--and it is very stable and not prone to wild swings. It is very useful in tracking changes in the height field, for instance. Great forecasting tool even if the solution isn't right per se. EMC_Decision_GFS_Res_Incr.ppt this is what i absolutely LOVE about the GFS.....very useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 yeah the ridge out west is flatter and the energy aint digging as much and voila the heights in front arent quick enough blah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 oh. im certainly no expert they both look great to me lol im just going off what Baro told us to keep an eye on, and based on tonights runs, he's right on the money (no surprise) with the trough position further east on tonights run (a nod to the GFS), heights just have enough time to amplify sufficientnly it semes perhaps the models will come up with a new twist tomorrow?....its true, we are still several days out. at this point model concensus puts a fairly significant deep trough over the miss valley around hr 84. That's a good enough start for me...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 jb's been spout'n about march '93 and planting the seeds weenie hype yeah thats a good laugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 at this point model concensus puts a fairly significant deep trough over the miss valley around hr 84. That's a good enough start for me...lol haha yeah ill still be here tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 at this point model concensus puts a fairly significant deep trough over the miss valley around hr 84. That's a good enough start for me...lol I personally, as I said earlier today, am following the king. Whatever it shows is the train I am riding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I personally, as I said earlier today, Im following the king. Whatever it shows is the train I am riding. so basically the ggem and nogaps went a bit east...the ukie went way east....the gfs has its own solution....and the nam is still in lala land...and of course waiting on the doc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 it's nam vs. the world right now, usually this doesn't bode well for the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 it's nam vs. the world right now, usually this doesn't bode well for the nam I think there are more then 2 camps. gfs nam ukie/ggem nogaps (im puttting this in its own camp because it is the only one that closes the h5 at the gulf coast which is why it is further east). dr. no waiting to get picked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I think there are more then 2 camps. gfs nam ukie/ggem nogaps (im puttting this in its own camp because it is the only one that closes the h5 at the gulf coast which is why it is further east). dr. no waiting to get picked we'll know in a minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 PLease post the EURO qpf for the STL if you get it thank you.. good luck with the big one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 PLease post the EURO qpf for the STL if you get it thank you.. good luck with the big one Lol...post pit if you want...not sure I want to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Just curious, what is the yahoo member? You cant click on it just wondering what or who it is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 hr 72 the northern stream is diving down quicker than 12z... less energy its holding back...the high is centered over southern vt which is further east. Looks like .12 for STL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 EURO looks similar to the NAM through 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 hr 84, the 12z had the trox axis oriented from ok city to greenbay....0z is texarkana to greenbay ...1012 low developing south of the boot of la Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 1008mb SLP in the NE Gulf...off the Florida Panhandle Coast at 90hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Just curious, what is the yahoo member? You cant click on it just wondering what or who it is? It's a spy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 1008mb SLP in the NE Gulf...off the Florida Panhandle Coast at 90hrs. Was waiting on you lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 hr 84, the 12z had the trox axis oriented from ok city to greenbay....0z is texarkana to greenbay ...1012 low developing south of the boot of la Wouldn't it be nice if this was in one main model thread and we weren't going back and forth??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 1008mb SLP in the NE Gulf...off the Florida Panhandle Coast at 90hrs. 96hrs: 1004mb SLP in SE. Georiga. Nice hit for E. Kentucky for the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 It's a spy lol. I noticed there is like 3 or 4 members like that haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Wouldn't it be nice if this was in one main model thread and we weren't going back and forth??? Yea but Storm is here now, so dont have to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 96hrs: 1004mb SLP in SE. Georiga. Nice hit for E. Kentucky for the period. 102hrs: 996mb SLP in SE. North Carolina. Still a nice hit for C/E. Kentucky for the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 This Euro run isn't going to be good. Only question is whether it will be a little better or a little worse than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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