buckeye Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I am talking Ot and looking past this storm LOL oops....my bad. i haven't even looked beyond 120 at this point lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 ukie is way way way east OTS east but dont worry, DT is still busy bashing the GFS on FB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 DT on FB lol : Wxrisk.com0z SAT JAN 22 GFS now out to 120 hrs: this run is a New way to come up with a solutuion that is so bad... so absurd...as to be called WRETCHED! ...whereas ALL other Models show the Main Low over southern AL or southern GA the 0z GFS has Low in OHIO??? OHIO ???? ...OH my god. LOL. I wonder if DT will do an analysis on the CRAS and NOGAPS too. BTW I find DT funny and overall a good met with a ton of experience--some of his analysis is a bit over-dramatic though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/9814-nycphl-jan-25-28-potential-threat-part-2/page__view__findpost__p__334063 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 LOL. I wonder if DT will do an analysis on the CRAS and NOGAPS too. BTW I find DT funny and overall a good met with a ton of experience--some of his analysis is a bit over-dramatic though. He posted a huge write up on his website www.wxrisk.com Guy is popular for sure he had near 2 millions hits on his website over the past week lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 As much as I hate Pittsburgh because of the football rivarly, welcome to the good side. I'm sure you will find us Midwestern folk much more accepting then those East Coasters On the old Eastern boards I used to come over this way a bit too. We have more weather in common with Ohio than areas east. My work used to take me to Columbus and Cleveland a lot so I still have work friend rivalries for football. I used to come to Columbus every other month for meetings until our company was sold. I always had good times there and it's an easy 3 hour drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 LOL. I wonder if DT will do an analysis on the CRAS and NOGAPS too. BTW I find DT funny and overall a good met with a ton of experience--some of his analysis is a bit over-dramatic though. as far as im concerned he works for ecmwf.int i suppose he is good for reading the ECMWF if you dont have access. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 ukie is way way way east OTS east but dont worry, DT is still busy bashing the GFS on FB wow...that's a surprise after seeing that trough its digging at 72 hrs....yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 wow...that's a surprise after seeing that trough its digging at 72 hrs....yikes its ovah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 He posted a huge write up on his website www.wxrisk.com Guy is popular for sure he had near 2 millions hits on his website over the past week lol 2 million? Goodness sakes. I should see if anyone would follow my pessimistic weather analysis on FB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 2 million? Goodness sakes. I should see if anyone would follow my pessimistic weather analysis on FB. Oh it wasnt on FB, he had the 2 million hits on his actual website. He has 9450 followers on facebook. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GGEM looks good with the trough position at 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 its ovah i'm not calling the fat lady to the mic until sunday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GGEM looks good with the trough position at 84. so did the ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 2 million? Goodness sakes. I should see if anyone would follow my pessimistic weather analysis on FB. Just forecast for the population centers on the eastcoast and they'll love you, there's a reason accuweather and DT focus on the NE because the snow weenies seem to have had a population explosion in the past 10 years on the eastcoast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 GFS ensemble mean at 96 depicts a 1007 low about 150 miles SE of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Just forecast for the population centers on the eastcoast and they'll love you, there's a reason accuweather and DT focus on the NE because the snow weenies seem to have had a population explosion in the past 10 years on the eastcoast. I will call my website "Baroclinic Instability's House of East Coast Weather Pain: Triple Phase Coast Hugging HECS Nor'easters Guaranteed". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 so did the ukie Yup, GGEM east of its 12z, although still on the western edge of the model envelope. Wasn't really anticipating this being a big deal for mby, but I have been tracking it a bit so...I'll throw in the napkin rather than the towel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 i'm not calling the fat lady to the mic until sunday evening. you're right im being overdramatic but... the GFS is a good model despite what DT tells you when it holds steady 3 runs in a row with something, you better take it seriously IMO. the fact that the NAM at 72 h treneded away from the previous NAM and towards the GFS is not good....+ the UKie way OTS after being furthest west. my money says the GFS is onto something.....and that is away from an OV threat and more striclty a coastal threat. you can be sure the GFS has gone too far, but it will come back to nail the NYC-BOS corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 I will call my website "Baroclinic Instability's House of East Coast Weather Pain: Triple Phase Coast Hugging HECS Nor'easters Guaranteed". "Bombogenesis Maximus The northeast winter storm center" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 "Bombogenesis Maximus The northeast winter storm center" Yesterday when the 0Z GFS came out the weenies were comparing that mini bowling ball to Superstorm 1993 in the eastern region threads. I had to deny them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yup, GGEM east of its 12z, although still on the western edge of the model envelope. Wasn't really anticipating this being a big deal for mby, but I have been tracking it a bit so...I'll throw in the napkin rather than the towel. between the 84 and 96 hr the trough on the ggem basically moves due east with the exact same tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 you're right im being overdramatic but... the GFS is a good model despite what DT tells you when it holds steady 3 runs in a row with something, you better take it seriously IMO. the fact that the NAM at 72 h treneded away from the previous NAM and towards the GFS is not good....+ the UKie way OTS after being furthest west. my money says the GFS is onto something.....and that is away from an OV threat and more striclty a coastal threat. you can be sure the GFS has gone too far, but it will come back to nail the NYC-BOS corridor Yes, very. It is much better than people give it credit for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yes, very. It is much better than people give it credit for. Except when it has convective feedback issues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the GGEM at 84h has signficantly trended towards the GFS with not digging the energy as far SW and south as previously....recall what Baro told us....we need it dig like a mofo, and even then, we need it to dig more than the GGEM indicated at 12z.....the fact that all the models have trended towards the GFS within the next 72-84 hrs, which is well within the range of acceptable model perofrmance means the writing is on the wall with this one i suspect. unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I suspect this will either be a full blown phased inland runner or a northern stream garden variety pattern. I don't buy the GGEM. It tries going both ways and looks unrealistic. once again....if all you could see were the 84 hr 5h maps on the nam, ukie, nogaps, and ggem, you'd have to be thinking a major storm and probably more inland. They all take a dump after that and all for seemingly different reasons, (except the nam which we dont know yet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Time for a better server? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Except when it has convective feedback issues... They have significantly improved sub-grid scale convective parametrization with the new update and the spectral resolution increase. http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:-zGm0vQI_W8J:www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/wx24fy/vsdb_glopara/Q3FY10_2010JJA/doc/EMC_Decision_GFS_Res_Incr.ppt+gfs+upgrade+precipitation+bombs&cd=5&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 the GGEM at 84h has signficantly trended towards the GFS with not digging the energy as far SW and south as previously....recall what Baro told us....we need it dig like a mofo, and even then, we need it to dig more than the GGEM indicated at 12z.....the fact that all the models have trended towards the GFS within the next 72-84 hrs, which is well within the range of acceptable model perofrmance means the writing is on the wall with this one i suspect. unfortunately quite honestly if you were to ask me which map looked more ominous wrt spinning up a storm, it would be tonites 00z. neutral tilt earlier, more ridging out ahead, very sharp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Time for a better server? lol i thought it was me....good to hear...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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