Harry Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2008/us0309j3.php Interesting. I never knew PD 1 ( Feb 18-19 1979 ) was a miller b type storm. Actually took a very similar track that the GFS is showing with this with the northern stuff. Main difference was that popped a low at the coast of NC/SC border and absorbed the weak low out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I just had to post this, then everyone who didnt before can understand why Henry Margusity should be stripped of his Met degree, guy is an idiot. Here is his recent post on Facebook Henry Margusity Fan ClubThe DGEX model is like the love of my life in regards to the weather. Yes, the DGEX is the model he swears by.. What a clown. How does this guy keep a job? EDIT: Needed to add this gem he put in the comments of that post Henry Margusity Fan Club In a normal storm, 1 Inch of rain equals 10 inches of snow. If its very cold, 1 inch of rain can equal 20 inches of snow. That's 20:1. The colder it is the higher the ratio, the warmer the lower the ratio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I just had to post this, then everyone who didnt before can understand why Henry Margusity should be stripped of his Met degree, guy is an idiot. Here is his recent post on Facebook Yes, the DGEX is the model he swears by.. What a clown. How does this guy keep a job? EDIT: Needed to add this gem he put in the comments of that post Clown indeed. My favorite quote was when he said the stronger Ohio Valley surface low would "push" the coastal low farther OTS with the last HECS to pummel New England This whole "colder" = higher ratios is equally bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I just had to post this, then everyone who didnt before can understand why Henry Margusity should be stripped of his Met degree, guy is an idiot. Here is his recent post on Facebook Yes, the DGEX is the model he swears by.. What a clown. How does this guy keep a job? EDIT: Needed to add this gem he put in the comments of that post Henry Margusity is in a meteorology weenie class of his own as a true Quadruple Bunner: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Henry Margusity is in a meteorology weenie class of his own as a true Quadruple Bunner: Yea I posted on his site today that he was all hype and asked why accuweather puts out precip maps when the energy isnt even sampled yet. He responded "yea the weather channel is on board with a NE storm, Fox news met is also on board, and accuweather just stated an ec storm is likely so it's all hype eh steve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Henry Margusity is in a meteorology weenie class of his own as a true Quadruple Bunner: Oh.. Never seen the quadruple bunner.. The triple bunner is worst weenieism, I guess he would be a quad bunner considering his statement about the dgex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Yea I posted on his site today that he was all hype and asked why accuweather puts out precip maps when the energy isnt even sampled yet. He responded "yea the weather channel is on board with a NE storm, Fox news met is also on board, and accuweather just stated an ec storm is likely so it's all hype eh steve? LOL. Are you kidding me? He seems pretty confident in the forecasting abilities of FOX, the Weather Channel, and Accuweather to respond with such a tone. Of course the threat is most definitely real, but suggesting it is because those news organizations and the DGEX suggest it is the last reason to hop on-board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 LOL. Are you kidding me? He seems pretty confident in the forecasting abilities of FOX, the Weather Channel, and Accuweather to respond with such a tone. Of course the threat is most definitely real, but suggesting it is because those news organizations and the DGEX suggest it is the last reason to hop on-board. Yea I dont doubt the potential but its just the way he goes about it. He reminds me of a local news met (not saying all of them are bad:see my pic) that doesnt have a degree, just follows the models, and doesn't input any of his own meteorological intelligence and say why this model may be right and why it might be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 LOL nah we got more with the most recent one, atleast IMBY. DTW got 6.3" on Dec 12th and 5.3" on Jan 11/12th (though really the 0.3" was LES in storms wake Jan 12), so yes Dec 12th is the biggest so far of the season, at least officially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I am SOOOO glad I didn't read this thread until now, and see that the EURO showed 1.78 inches of QPF last night for KPIT...I would have had a weenie suicide today when I saw the GFS turn into total junk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 hour 66 looks like a storm up into canada will squash anything from coming too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 BTW, I don't care if its 100 hours out...a model should NOT shift that much, like 400 miles, in that timeframe...I mean, that is just pathetic...every storm this year, no one has had a clue until you got into like the 3 day range...even this last one, which was decently modeled wasn't really showing up all that well until around the 84 hour range....they are just junk IMO.. OK, end rant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 BTW, I don't care if its 100 hours out...a model should NOT shift that much, like 400 miles, in that timeframe...I mean, that is just pathetic...every storm this year, no one has had a clue until you got into like the 3 day range...even this last one, which was decently modeled wasn't really showing up all that well until around the 84 hour range....they are just junk IMO.. OK, end rant. Not even the 3 days, basically nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 At H5, 0z NAM at 72 is more consolidated and somewhat more neutral tilt with the ul trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Not even the 3 days, basically nowcasting. LOL, I know...I think the 12/26 5-6 days out was a HUGE hit from Birmingham to Maine, then went OTS then 48 hours it came back to a big hit for the Carolinas, and then Philly North....I mean, I think there have been a couple of well modeled storms, but lots of terrible ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 that little front piece of energy passing through the gulf is weaker ahead of the storm......that could be a good thing as per baro, keeping the gulf more moist and allowing for better WAA damn my comp is so slow when running its virus check ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 nam 78 looks like lp developing in Luisiana.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 BTW, I don't care if its 100 hours out...a model should NOT shift that much, like 400 miles, in that timeframe...I mean, that is just pathetic...every storm this year, no one has had a clue until you got into like the 3 day range...even this last one, which was decently modeled wasn't really showing up all that well until around the 84 hour range....they are just junk IMO.. OK, end rant. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/8746-why-are-models-so-good/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 BTW, I don't care if its 100 hours out...a model should NOT shift that much, like 400 miles, in that timeframe...I mean, that is just pathetic...every storm this year, no one has had a clue until you got into like the 3 day range...even this last one, which was decently modeled wasn't really showing up all that well until around the 84 hour range....they are just junk IMO.. OK, end rant. My Response, posted in the Mid-Atlantic earlier: Yeah exactly. The inevitable "THE MODELS SUCK!" comments are going to come out in these patterns. The models are doing fine. It is a nod to human ingenuity that these models can even suggest these threats 5-7 days in advance. Kudos to them; no kudos to the people who believe models suck if they can't nail down threats a week in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 no way that's a coastal....question is how far west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 http://www.americanw...models-so-good/ Wow--you read my mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 that little front piece of energy passing through the gulf is weaker ahead of the storm......that could be a good thing as per baro, keeping the gulf more moist and allowing for better WAA damn my comp is so slow when running its virus check ugh that piece of energy almost disappeared and when i saw that my first thought was the nam will probably be popping a much stronger ridge ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I think the reason people get frustrated with models is because it seems like they are always dead-on-accurate a full week in advance when they show a boring solution. Then they jump around wildly with much heartbreak if the pattern is more active. I think the models are pretty accurate when the pattern isn't amplified, but lose a lot of their take-it-at-face-value usefulness when there are lots of players on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Gotta tell you but the nam looks a little suspicious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Wow--you read my mind It was a good read. It seems like some people expect the models to be like automated forecast machines. They're called "guidance" for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 no way that's a coastal....question is how far west Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 no way that's a coastal....question is how far west Target central Pa. would be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Target central Pa. would be fine. I'm sorry but am I in the wrong fourm? This is Central/Western States, isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Target central Pa. would be fine. A west of appl track is still possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 I'm sorry but am I in the wrong fourm? This is Central/Western States, isn't it? We get stuck in between. The eastern weenies don't want us so sometimes we venture over here. Still a ways from St Louis but close enough to Columbus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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