buckeye Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 yea you said last nights run was a tad west than todays 12z run. I said it had to be more than a tad to cut totals the way it did. lol ok, i was referrring only to the track...which still wasn't that significantly east of last night. I think the qpf cutoff on the nw side was other issues as well as the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 NYC gets almost 3" of qpf this run lol.. WARNING DO NOT GO TO THE NYC THREAD lol Its slop! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 so what's the trend been this year ? It's been to make the northern stream more dominant over time. That might be a good thing to get it to phase in better. Pretty much and why i suggest all ( even bowme ) keep a eye on this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 With a negative tilted trough wouldn't it make sense for this thing to go farther west? I remember with the Feb 2009 "superbomb" fail all the models had it up the coast then shifted west only to lose it afterwards See post 575/586. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Pretty close. Basically the northern stream ends up staying further detached from our southern system. Thus why that stuff dropping in at 78hrs is important. Thus we need the northern stream to dig a little more so it can capture the southern low and thus bring it up along/west of the apps. You think so? The 00z had less of a phase between the systems which resulted in a farther west track. The phase today looks to push the storm farther east. I guess what you're saying is if the N Stream energy is there, you need it to dive in and go negative faster so it captures the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Its slop! Yea I know. look at the 2m tems, but still. DC close to 4" lol. the qpf amounts are just crazy, and temps arent that far off from them getting hammered big time. I was talking about the qpf totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Pretty much and why i suggest all ( even bowme ) keep a eye on this thing. yup snowstormcanuk and you nailed why it's going east. The first comments about the euro as it came out were the northern stream is much weaker. My money is on that reversing. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Hey Dilly, do you mind posting the QPF for PAH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 this could be one of those rare situations where the nam is the first to nail it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 yup snowstormcanuk and you nailed why it's going east. The first comments about the euro as it came out were the northern stream is much weaker. My money is on that reversing. We'll see. so youre saying this can farther west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 this could be one of those rare situations where the nam is the first to nail it Yeah, on a 0z run, only for the 6z and 12z to takeith away!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 You think so? The 00z had less of a phase between the systems which resulted in a farther west track. The phase today looks to push the storm farther east. I guess what you're saying is if the N Stream energy is there, you need it to dive in and go negative faster so it captures the low. Yes. yup snowstormcanuk and you nailed why it's going east. The first comments about the euro as it came out were the northern stream is much weaker. My money is on that reversing. We'll see. I actually agree. Thus the one seasonal trend on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 damn, jma is a southeast slider. i was hoping to get at least one model too far west....or even enough west for a hit at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 damn, jma is a southeast slider. i was hoping to get at least one model too far west....or even enough west for a hit at this point Or maybe b/c that model is terrible that is a good thing!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 so youre saying this can farther west? Oh yeah. It could even track over my head. Very slim chance but without that blocking and as mentioned a quicker/stronger moving system diving out of Canada capturing the southern low quicker makes it possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Or maybe b/c that model is terrible that is a good thing!? although it sux it tends to bias coastals... so being way east is a little discerning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 although it sux it tends to bias coastals... so being way east is a little discerning Yeah, or how about this....ok, I know I am being ridiculous, but....if it snifs out coastals it aint sniffen this one out b/c it's an apps runner!!!!!!!! Woooo!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Oh yeah. It could even track over my head. Very slim chance but without that blocking and as mentioned a quicker/stronger moving system diving out of Canada capturing the southern low quicker makes it possible. Wouldnt a stronger northern low just push this storm further east? Or the weaker it is the less it can pull it west. A newbie when it comes to phasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 although it sux it tends to bias coastals... so being way east is a little discerning You know what kind of luck this will be for them if they end up with it considering everything else? Will give a whole new meaning to thread the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Oh yeah. It could even track over my head. Very slim chance but without that blocking and as mentioned a quicker/stronger moving system diving out of Canada capturing the southern low quicker makes it possible. euro at 5 day, shows what happens when the northern stream doesn't catch it. The southern stream starts closing off and instead of the trough being forced to dig, go negative and lift, it 'detaches' a bit and heads more east. I could very easily see the "Harry" scenario trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 At least we still have a couple of days for things to change.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Wouldnt a stronger northern low just push this storm further east? Or the weaker it is the less it can pull it west. A newbie when it comes to phasing If the storm is weaker it would pull more East i.e flaten out...More West means means bigger storm I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Wouldnt a stronger northern low just push this storm further east? Or the weaker it is the less it can pull it west. A newbie when it comes to phasing Not if it closes off/slows down and tracks along say i70.. Truth be told that is what i kinda thought the 12z GFS was gonna do but ala it had no southern low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Oh yeah. It could even track over my head. Very slim chance but without that blocking and as mentioned a quicker/stronger moving system diving out of Canada capturing the southern low quicker makes it possible. Has anyone seen DT's write up from Jan. 19th on his web site? It talks about this very same thing and that without blocking it favors a phase happening west of the mississippi river. Interesting......maybe some hope afterall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Only thing I will add (to the title) is that the Global Gem is more like the angry Mother-In-Law than a crazy cousin to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 21, 2011 Author Share Posted January 21, 2011 Only thing I will add (to the title) is that the Global Gem is more like the angry Mother-In-Law than a crazy cousin to the Euro. lol fair enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 basically we want... this....there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Just a reminder of the crazy spread and extreme difficulty the models will have simulating these large upper tropospheric energetic waves as they break off the Pacific Jet. This is more challenging than large cyclones alone migrating across the Pacific. The spread at 96 hours is pretty amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 granted its the 15sref but looks like it brings the northern stream further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I wish I understood things more...so what would the ramifications of this be? of the the sref model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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