buckeye Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 The big snows in the OV it showed last night are gone. 2 days from now we'll be looking back saying 'remember when the models had this as a inland coastal?'. The question is what will it be showing then. I'd be nervous as heck if it had our dream track right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Wow. That's strange considering the tracks are so similar, at least according to Chicago Storm. you're telling me. I figured it would drop off a bit, maybe back to 1" but my lord, its completely gone, and with a similar track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 SO PUT IN YOUR GUESS FOR THE 12Z EURO: A. Suppressed OTS B. HECS I-95 weenie dream C. Eastern Apps inland runner....hammers PITT, E. OV D. APP runner....buckeye lov'n E. OV runner....congrats Hoosier and Harry F. Lake Cutter...Harry cold sweat, Wisconsin special I'm saying this run will be a B. and the weenie MA thread will be stomp'n and rock'n...DT will post an update WOOF WOOF I guess we ended up with something between B/C closer to B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hey how bout that off the coast south of new england, heads to nova scotia what a surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Looks like around .25" through 150... Basically a hard roll with no butter for all of us. That's probably contaminated from the weekend clipper. From looking at where the low tracks between 120 and 144 that's usually no good for imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 you're telling me. I figured it would drop off a bit, maybe back to 1" but my lord, its completely gone, and with a similar track. Yeap that is odd. Could of been an error or something lol but which way QPF or no QPF... lol We'll know in 12hrs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Wow. That's strange considering the tracks are so similar, at least according to Chicago Storm. It was actually further west as it pulled up from the Gulf. Then it was essentially at the same spot in NC as the 0z....then ended up further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 hey how bout that off the coast south of new england, heads to nova scotia what a surprise Still close enough that we have to watch it though. I hate that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yeap that is odd. Could of been an error or something lol but which way QPF or no QPF... lol We'll know in 12hrs.. last night it was like 980 something in VA so it was stronger, and i think a tad west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It was actually further west as it pull up from the Gulf. Then it was essentially at the same spot in NC as the 0z....then ended up further east. Makes sense. Those upstream kickers were ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I am not professional but I doubt with as much high pressure to the NE, a strenghtening east based NAO, and with it intensifying and going negative tilt, it wouldnt go from new orleans to boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It was actually further west as it pull up from the Gulf. Then it was essentially at the same spot in NC as the 0z....then ended up further east. Makes sense the way this winter has gone, but either 0z or the 12z has something wrong with it. Im saying last nights run was probably wrong on the qpf reaching eastern OH/western PA like it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 make this a bit more neutral at this point and it's a whole new ball game. that's a hell of a trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 My suggestion to you is to bail on this one for here right now. Ain't happening. Could be a big dog for KY and OH though. Can't really "bail" when I haven't been giving it much of a chance to begin with (in terms of a bigger event), but I see what you're saying. Can pretty much gauge my interest level by how much I post in a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 last night it was like 980 something in VA so it was stronger, and i think a tad west. A tad? PIT went from 1.75 to .25.. you went from .65 or so to nothing at all. A bit more than a tad when pertaining to this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 I am not professional but I doubt with as much high pressure to the NE, a strenghtening east based NAO, and with it intensifying and going negative tilt, it wouldnt go from new orleans to boston. It goes negative tilt, but only in the southern stream. The northern stream, rather than phasing with it, acts as a kicker to push it to the east. I don't like it, but I think it makes meteorological sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 A tad? PIT went from 1.75 to .25.. you went from .65 or so to nothing at all. A bit more than a tad when pertaining to this region. i had said a tad WEST....wasn't referring to qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Still close enough that we have to watch it though. I hate that. true enough....and that is the unfortunate part this one has an extended precip shield to keep interest further NW, but that is the track this year, and it will be again. 5th time i will be going through this drill, but i keep putting myself thourgh it....rinse repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It goes negative tilt, but only in the southern stream. The northern stream, rather than phasing with it, acts as a kicker to push it to the east. I don't like it, but I think it makes meteorological sense. Yep, this is exactly what happens. Too much crap upstream to allow it to pull west this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 this makes me wanna puke. BOS WED 18Z 26-JAN 0.5 -4.8 1019 90 96 0.06 550 535 THU 00Z 27-JAN 1.4 -3.2 1011 96 96 0.30 546 537 THU 06Z 27-JAN 1.8 -2.1 995 99 92 1.15 536 540 THU 12Z 27-JAN 1.3 -2.8 987 95 96 0.63 528 539 THU 18Z 27-JAN 0.5 -5.3 990 81 81 0.27 528 536 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 2 days from now we'll be looking back saying 'remember when the models had this as a inland coastal?'. The question is what will it be showing then. I'd be nervous as heck if it had our dream track right now. I am fully with you on that. Never good to have the dream track this far out. Had that system that had come out of Canada at 78hrs or so stayed together/stronger and dipped just a little further south we would be looking at a completely different ballgame i suspect. That system is kinda the deal breaker for all unless we were to lose the southern part of the system. Plenty of time for this to change and end up like that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It goes negative tilt, but only in the southern stream. The northern stream, rather than phasing with it, acts as a kicker to push it to the east. I don't like it, but I think it makes meteorological sense. so what's the trend been this year ? It's been to make the northern stream more dominant over time. That might be a good thing to get it to phase in better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 i had said a tad WEST....wasn't referring to qpf yea you said last nights run was a tad west than todays 12z run. I said it had to be more than a tad to cut totals the way it did. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It goes negative tilt, but only in the southern stream. The northern stream, rather than phasing with it, acts as a kicker to push it to the east. I don't like it, but I think it makes meteorological sense. Ah thanks. I thought the northern stream phased with it. Can anyone quickly enlighten me on how the pna effects this storm and storm track. A positive PNA makes the ridge steeper out west, making storms go southeast towards the gulf? The more neutral it is the flatter the ridge is? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 That's probably contaminated from the weekend clipper. From looking at where the low tracks between 120 and 144 that's usually no good for imby. Yea.. You only get a lil blowing in the ear and a TY for picking up the tab for my King cut of prime rib action from the big momma.. Still something to keep an eye on like you said up there. Better than back this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 NYC gets almost 3" of qpf this run lol.. WARNING DO NOT GO TO THE NYC THREAD lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It goes negative tilt, but only in the southern stream. The northern stream, rather than phasing with it, acts as a kicker to push it to the east. I don't like it, but I think it makes meteorological sense. Pretty close. Basically the northern stream ends up staying further detached from our southern system. Thus why that stuff dropping in at 78hrs is important. Thus we need the northern stream to dig a little more so it can capture the southern low and thus bring it up along/west of the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 With a negative tilted trough wouldn't it make sense for this thing to go farther west? I remember with the Feb 2009 "superbomb" fail all the models had it up the coast then shifted west only to lose it afterwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 what are the odds of this major storm taking this track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Out of 21 GGEM ensemble members, I counted one that was equal to or further west than the 12z OP GGEM. The rest were closer to the EURO/GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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