Ajdos Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 jb alludes to this...saying this storm should come west due to the nao. I don't get the feeling he's thinking WAY west but enough to cause a changeover in the i-95. IDK man, just look at where the storm starts on the gfs example, and the Baroclinic zone, and how much weaker the high to the north is so many factors are pointing towwards an inland track. Surely if the storm does go east of the APPLY nyc will get all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 If you really look at hour 102, there is phasing occuring, so I do not see why this storm does will not go further west. We need the phase to happen a little sooner. Hopefully it does so we can track this thing through central Ohio/west of apps moving due north. That is what i am hoping for anyways. Would be a nice way to bring this winter back from the depths of hell. Oh and yes spine runners can happen and thus see March 2008 and or even Nov 1950. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 We need the phase to happen a little sooner. Hopefully it does so we can track this thing through central Ohio/west of apps moving due north. That is what i am hoping for anyways. Would be a nice way to bring this winter back from the depths of hell. Oh and yes spine runners can happen and thus see March 2008 and or even Nov 1950. They can happen, but are rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 My suggestion to you is to bail on this one for here right now. Ain't happening. Could be a big dog for KY and OH though. Yep, not going to hold out much hope for this one.. Hard to believe that it's been nearly 4 years since our last big dog.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 that euro was nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yep, not going to hold out much hope for this one.. Hard to believe that it's been nearly 4 years since our last big dog.. Depends on the definition of big dog, but if you're going by a 10"+ storm, the last one for LAF was 12/15-16/07. The last 6"+ storm was 1/31-2/1/08. Definitely overdue for a 6"+ storm...although this won't be the one though. We'll keep patiently waiting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 ahhahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 ahhahahaha That is hilarious and so true!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 score with the 12z nam for me but i know what the nam did last time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Darn clipper on the weekend is squashing the energy too far south. I would venture to guess though if the clipper wasnt there the chance of future phasing with our energies wouldn't occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 score with the 12z nam for me but i know what the nam did last time Yeah, but at least the NAM and GFS are in pretty good agreement this time around... for now anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Yeah, but at least the NAM and GFS are in pretty good agreement this time around... for now anyway. your right, although the EURO is slightly east. I would suspect if the gfs and new 12z euro come close to the Nam (around 1/2 inch qpf) we will see some watches go out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Depends on the definition of big dog, but if you're going by a 10"+ storm, the last one for LAF was 12/15-16/07. The last 6"+ storm was 1/31-2/1/08. Definitely overdue for a 6"+ storm...although this won't be the one though. We'll keep patiently waiting... I am getting pretty down on the crappy winter for Kokomo. So many near misses and busts in recent years. I cannot think of anything really good since VD2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Hopefully the Euro is right intially and does some things differently later on. Wacky looking setup for sure. congrats on calling the event along the east coast Angry. i am willing to give credit where credit is due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This snow sqall line was insane, gusty winds, very heavy snow for about 5 minutes. Beautiful .. heres a picture..a quick inch.. nice pic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 FWIW...differences in the qpf amounts from the 0z and 12z NAM runs 0z 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 yep, fell in line more towards the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 We need the phase to happen a little sooner. Hopefully it does so we can track this thing through central Ohio/west of apps moving due north. That is what i am hoping for anyways. Would be a nice way to bring this winter back from the depths of hell. Oh and yes spine runners can happen and thus see March 2008 and or even Nov 1950. at this point i'm still inclined to favor PITT as a sweetspot. That may change by tomorrow and I might be favoring INDY for all i know . Looking at where the modelling is putting the western ridge, it would be hard to get a storm to cut too far west of the apps. Unless this thing REALLY bombed early down in the TN valley or something like that. That being said, I don't think we should discount significant precip much further west with the incoming northern energy and inverted trough further nw. This will be the first storm in awhile where the gulf of mexico is totally open for biz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 at this point i'm still inclined to favor PITT as a sweetspot. That may change by tomorrow and I might be favoring INDY for all i know . Looking at where the modelling is putting the western ridge, it would be hard to get a storm to cut too far west of the apps. Unless this thing REALLY bombed early down in the TN valley or something like that. That being said, I don't think we should discount significant precip much further west with the incoming northern energy and inverted trough further nw. This will be the first storm in awhile where the gulf of mexico is totally open for biz. It is a tough call. Lacking -NAO helps favor a more westward track but as we seen just recently any little thing can come along and mess that up. Still a bit to be cleared up with this too and thus why it is a tough call. But yeah if that ridge out west is inland that far then yes it will be hard to get this thing too far west atleast for my liking unless as you say it bombs earlier or perhaps even closes off earlier. Probably gonna be a good nail biter down to the end. I just hope for a change i am on the right side of it all. If it does miss i hope it is you guys who get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 It is a tough call. Lacking -NAO helps favor a more westward track but as we seen just recently any little thing can come along and mess that up. Still a bit to be cleared up with this too and thus why it is a tough call. But yeah if that ridge out west is inland that far then yes it will be hard to get this thing too far west atleast for my liking unless as you say it bombs earlier or perhaps even closes off earlier. Probably gonna be a good nail biter down to the end. I just hope for a change i am on the right side of it all. If it does miss i hope it is you guys who get it. Harry, You're the MJO guru, what quadrant is it supposed to be in during this time and what does that teleconnect to wrt this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 12z runs of the NAM/GFS regarding the secondary s/w dropping down, GFS is faster and stronger with it bringing maybe an inch or two to areas around here. NAM GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 gfs closes the 5h way early so it doesn't really dig.....east and weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 not impressed with the 12z NCEP runs par for the course regardless of what the models are showing currently, id feel pretty good about this event if i lived in the NYC-BOS corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Harry, You're the MJO guru, what quadrant is it supposed to be in during this time and what does that teleconnect to wrt this storm Depends on the kind of forcing we have and thus how much amplitude it has for starters. Models try to tank it into the circle of death ( phase 8 ) about the time this system comes along. It is currently in phase 7 nearing 8 which usually favors more east but like anything there can be exceptions and thus see Jan 79 Chicago blizzard which was a phase 7 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 nice pic! Thx.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Gfs keeps switching with every run, we just have to get used to this crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 rgem comes in like nam at 48 hours, very very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Gfs keeps switching with every run, we just have to get used to this crap. Imagine how frustrating it is to be in Vermont, Albany, Montreal and Ottawa and watching all these storms just miss! At least it misses us by 800 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 This run of the GFS should be brought out back and shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 21, 2011 Share Posted January 21, 2011 Imagine how frustrating it is to be in Vermont, Albany, Montreal and Ottawa and watching all these storms just miss! At least it misses us by 800 miles actually albany is doing just fine, these storms have hit the lower hudson valley with moderate amounts time and again. synoptically, with these east coast storms climatoogically....syracuse, ottawa, buffalo, toronto to some extent, and montreal and burlington vermont have been the shaft zone. but syracuse and buffalo though have had plenty of lake effect snow, in fact KSYR is over 100 inches! ....its bizarre, every storm appears poised to hug the coast, but then passes OFF the coast just south of new england and OTS towards nova scotia......of course that same wall extends further back to the midwest and lakes.....its just we are getting a painful birds-eye view here..... ottawa has had it the worst though.. a season to forget for sure, i thought last year was bad....but up close and personal this year and a season to really test your pain limits....i can assure you it has been a horror show . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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