cmichweather Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Well just a starting post as some of the MW posters are scared to ruin their "mojo" with thread starting topics. I haven't been following this all that closely but an analysis of the 00z models certainly argues for a region wide event depending on how the northern and southern streams interact. You can clearly see that both models have a northern and southern stream SW that are nearly close enough to phase towards a more amplified solution that makes for a decent midwest storm. Especially if that northern stream wave comes in stronger it can act to slow the southern stream wave so that they can phase and form what i would think would be a nice snowstorm for much of the MW. That last line on both the EC and GFS shows the mean longwave pattern associated with the phase of the latest storm and the position of the PV would prevent any sort of "cutter" if the two SW's can phase it would be forced underneath the PV and would be essentially a bowling bowl storm, although it would weaken as it moved east. Certainly looks like something to watch for the western midwest crew, could be a nice region wide event. Even if the northern and southern waves stay separate, the southern wave should amount in decent cyclogensis that has a decent gulf connection and may be a lower midwest threat for MO, KY, IN, OH , TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 actually i'm way to lazy to check, but the northern stream energy may be the leftovers of the pacific monster low (936mb i think?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 There goes Hoosier's request out the window to start this thread lol better have some luck on your side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Since I see you use Chrome and you like to draw on images--I highly recommend this: https://chrome.google.com/extensions/detail/alelhddbbhepgpmgidjdcjakblofbmce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 Since I see you use Chrome and you like to draw on images--I highly recommend this: https://chrome.googl...djdcjakblofbmce thanks!!, ya i made the conversion from FF about a year ago. I think chrome is the best browser out there right now, its just so fast and easy to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 actually i'm way to lazy to check, but the northern stream energy may be the leftovers of the pacific monster low (936mb i think?) There is the armageddon Pacific bomb sending energetic disturbances through the flow. What kind of shape the upper level cold front is in with each wave will be crucial--it all depends on whether the first can incite strong enough low level flow to advect that GOM air ahead of the kicker secondary. All global guidance has some GOM interaction, but of course how intact each wave is and the timing is not well known at this point. A bit of a yawn forecast thus far as all these waves are projected to be split off from the main northern stream flow--but it has some potential if the GOM is tapped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Not feeling this one, smells like suppression city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Not feeling this one, smells like suppression city. i predict that the storm will pass off the coast, south of new england. anyone want to bet against me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Not feeling this one, smells like suppression city. I'd feel more comfortable if that big vortex wasn't sitting to our north, nothing's going to cut through that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I'd feel more comfortable if that big vortex wasn't sitting to our north, nothing's going to cut through that. Wash, rinse, repeat with these big east coast storms and disjointed junk harmlessly scooting through the plains. That sad clipper in between storms isn't going to help either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 i predict that the storm will pass off the coast, south of new england. anyone want to bet against me? Nah I'll bet on the 5th? Blizzard since Dec 25th for NYC on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Carbon copy of the Weds-Thurs event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 As someone else mentioned, looks like snow for Da Bears game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 As someone else mentioned, looks like snow for Da Bears game. If you have HD, you might be able to make out 6 flurries. This one will progressively come up weaker and south. Seasonal trends FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 If you have HD, you might be able to make out 6 flurries. This one will progressively come up weaker and south. Seasonal trends FTL. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 +1 hopefully the coastal which arises from the corpse of this system will be the last of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The 15 day GFS doesn't even spit out 0.5" of liquid for here. Hard to imagine any significant snow given those numbers. Given 20:1 ratios that is under 10". We are about 14" below normal for the season and numbers like this will only add to the seasonal deficit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 12z Euro at 144...low in the Gulf (just south of LA) and a low coming down through Canada (just north of ND). The race is on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 12z Euro at 144...low in the Gulf (just south of LA) and a low coming down through Canada (just north of ND). The race is on... Sounds like it'll probably be too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Sounds like it'll probably be too far east. Yep. Pretty blah. Matter of fact Euro implies light rain for a short time for places like STL, IND, and even up here. Basically the northern impulse bullies the southern piece. Haven't seen that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 really? rain? the 850s never come close to above freezing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Good God, the Euro is hideous for this one. At 174 it has thicknesses at 528, yet the 32º isotherm is poking just into SW lower MI. And yes it delivers another East Coast storm, but WAA is on the move north. PHL and NYC could have some p-type issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 really? rain? the 850s never come close to above freezing? 2m temps go above freezing for STL, verbatim. Eh, it could still be snow, but it's nothing to write home about...for anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I was wondering if there was maybe ice a warm layer above 850mb. looked so good last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Good God, the Euro is hideous for this one. At 174 it has thicknesses at 528, yet the 32º isotherm is poking just into SW lower MI. And yes it delivers another East Coast storm, but WAA is on the move north. PHL and NYC could have some p-type issues. Funny sounding run, hard to imagine an EC storm with temps that warm in Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Funny sounding run, hard to imagine an EC storm with temps that warm in Michigan. This I agree with. Seems we're usually seasonably cold with EC events...but FWIW, the Euro has pushed the deep arctic cold well off to the NE in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 If you have HD, you might be able to make out 6 flurries. This one will progressively come up weaker and south. Seasonal trends FTL. You're making me want to put this in the word filter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 You're making me want to put this in the word filter. ****! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 DVN THE NEXT CLIPPER IS SHOWN QUICKLY FOLLOWING FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI NIGHT AND HAVE KEPT SLIGHT TO LOW END POPS...ALONG WITH LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY THROUGH THE DAY FRI. BEYOND...THERE IS LITTLE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE TIMING OR TRACK OF ENSUING SYSTEMS. BASED ON A MODEL BLEND...THE NEXT SYSTEMS LOOK LIKELY AROUND SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN AND THEN AROUND MON INTO MON NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING AND WARMING BACK CLOSER TO CLIMO. THE LATEST GFS AND GEM...TRACKING A MORE DEFINED SURFACE LOW TO OUR SW SUNDAY...WOULD SUGGEST SNOW AMOUNTS PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY. ..SHEETS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Looks like Hoosier may be glad he didn't start this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.