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DC Area TV Weather Verification


Kmlwx

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I'm thinking of taking the whatever forecast each news outlet has posted on their website (assuming the website is up to date) as of 8:00pm each evening (mainly for convenience for myself lol - Plus it'll be after the evening newscasts). The first thing I want to look at is forecast HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY and for the FOLLOWING DAY ONLY. I'll check other aspects as we continue.

I'll throw in NWS (point and click because zones do not give specific temperatures) as well.

Summary -

- 8:00pm Forecast is the forecast that goes.

- For now only looking at the next days forecast HIGH temperature

- Forecast assumed to be for Washington, DC (correct me if I'm wrong)

- Point and click used from NWS for Washington, DC

- Lowest Overall Departure = Best in this category.

- STARTING WITH TODAY'S (11/20) forecast for TOMORROW'S HIGHS

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This is a cool idea. I started doing it for the Boston Mets, except Im doing for the next day, and for 5 days in advance. Some of the differences are pretty high. Even for tommorow the lowest forecast is 49 and the highest is 53. For Friday, one station is going for a high of 38 and one has 51-pretty amazing difference. Maybe Ill do forecast lows after, but highs is much more interesting.

I think it will be cool to see which station has best long term and which has best short term accuracy

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Interesting that NWS has been the low one the last two days.

Just remember that the NWS doesn't actually do specific point forecasts like the local news people do. They forecast for the entire WFO, and it has to make sense on a graphical image. If the areas surrounding DCA are cooler, than DCA needs to get smoothed down in order to avoid hot spots on the map.

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Just remember that the NWS doesn't actually do specific point forecasts like the local news people do. They forecast for the entire WFO, and it has to make sense on a graphical image. If the areas surrounding DCA are cooler, than DCA needs to get smoothed down in order to avoid hot spots on the map.

Yeah true. Even so, I think the general public if they use NWS is looking at that forecast and uses it as a basis. So from a strictly "general public POV" that is the NWS forecast

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Yeah true. Even so, I think the general public if they use NWS is looking at that forecast and uses it as a basis. So from a strictly "general public POV" that is the NWS forecast

Yeah that's not a problem... I'm just making sure everyone knows why the NWS appears to struggle more with the temps.

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Yeah that's not a problem... I'm just making sure everyone knows why the NWS appears to struggle more with the temps.

Yeah I get you. I wish there was a way to counteract this because we all know that temperatures are not always "smoothed" in that manner. It really makes NWS look bad in the public eye. I know that just about all of my friends use either weather.com or other commercial sources but when I have told them to try NWS they always complain.

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High of 61 degrees today at National (from Prelim climate report)

For the 11/22 Forecast -

RESULTS (11/22)

NBC4 = +6

FOX5 = +4

ABC7 = +5

WUSA9 = +4

NWS = +2

All were high (based on preliminary climate data) (adjustments will be made if final report contradicts)

Cumulative results will be updated on the original 1st post.

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High of 69 degrees per the preliminary climate report.

For the 11/23 Forecast -

RESULTS (11/23)

NBC4 = 0

FOX5 = -1

ABC7 = -1

WUSA9 = -5

NWS = -1

First perfect today from NBC. Not a good day for WUSA but Howard did correct the forecast upwards this morning (even so cannot give credit for that).

Cumulative results will be updated on the original 1st post.

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