Post Turkey Day Storm Threat

[Logan11]

Well its Thanksgiving, not Christmas. My goal would be get enough cold air in for Thursday to have a front end of a few inches of snow that morning before it warms. That would be fun... It would suck for Xmas, but it's interesting for Thanksgiving.

DT didn't get anything right. We're heading into a below normal pattern. One thing that has become clear is it's not as cold or as snowy as it once looked. That doesn't mean it's not wintry, but to have 3 bad runs in a row on the Euro means it's onto something. It's possible the Euro ensembles are going to bust on this brutal cold they had

[Damage In Tolland]

How is this a below normal pattern?

Monday, your 850s are above 0C and you probably get into the upper 40s with lows in the upper 30s according to NWS.

Tuesday is an all out torch with +8C 850s.

Then a brief shot of cold air Thanksgiving before another cutter comes.

DT would be right if the 12z ECM verified.

That would translate to highs in the 40's at the surface lol..where's the torch?

[CoastalWx]

DT didn't get anything right. We're heading into a below normal pattern. One thing that has become clear is it's not as cold or as snowy as it once looked. That doesn't mean it's not wintry, but to have 3 bad runs in a row on the Euro means it's onto something. It's possible the Euro ensembles are going to bust on this brutal cold they had

But there was never a bitter cold signal. People fall in love with the gfs op showing 510 thicknesses overhead and take it to the bank. A bitter cold signal would be a massive ridge over the west and Alaska. We don't and will not have that. What we have is a west based nao that will keep the coldest air in Canada and out in the Plains with occasional intrusions of cold...possibly preceded by storminess. Overall a cool pattern, but not arctic or torchy.

[ORH_wxman]

Everyone needs to climb back from the bridge. I hope nobody was expecting a complete and all out arctic assault. That was never in the cards. I'd also treat the euro op with a grain of salt for now. Like I said, the d10 threat could still be a mild solution as even hinted by the ensembles, but we'll have some chances down the road. Just because the ensemble mean is below 540, doesn't mean every storm will be frozen. The details are to be determined, but the key players are still there for opportunities. That block is not going anywhere for now. Keep a realistic approach and you won't be let down. It's not even Thanksgiving yet. Climo says relax and put the knife down.

I'm gonna have to start putting the hammer down on weenies obsessing over the OP model runs past day 6 where they have very little skill.

What we talked about as a nice pattern change with some modified arctic air around and a legit chance at our first snow event has turned into a weenie-fest saying "The monster arctic cold isn't coming and this pattern sucks for huge coastal bombs"....

Its all about expectations.

[CoastalWx]

I'm gonna have to start putting the hammer down on weenies obsessing over the OP model runs past day 6 where they have very little skill.

What we talked about as a nice pattern change with some modified arctic air around and a legit chance at our first snow event has turned into a weenie-fest saying "The monster arctic cold isn't coming and this pattern sucks for huge coastal bombs"....

Its all about expectations.

Bingo.

[weatherwiz]

Everyone needs to climb back from the bridge. I hope nobody was expecting a complete and all out arctic assault. That was never in the cards. I'd also treat the euro op with a grain of salt for now. Like I said, the d10 threat could still be a mild solution as even hinted by the ensembles, but we'll have some chances down the road. Just because the ensemble mean is below 540, doesn't mean every storm will be frozen. The details are to be determined, but the key players are still there for opportunities. That block is not going anywhere for now. Keep a realistic approach and you won't be let down. It's not even Thanksgiving yet. Climo says relax and put the knife down.

100% agreed. Not sure why anyone would want an all out Arctic assault anyways lol...it's not like we need all out Arctic air to get snows up at this latitude. As long as the pattern looks good down the road that's all you can look at right now. Given the models consistently showing the fact that a fairly negative NAO block is about to setup that's all we want to see right now. As long as we see a -NAO block setup like that we should have a decent shot.

The Thanksgiving system also really never had a chance, the only possibility from it was maybe seeing some frozen precip at some point during the storm.

[cpickett79]

logal that's what i was thinking ......at least CNE snow out of that set up ..with the stronger HP there..but scott said to forget about it unless i have a mix to rain fetish in SW nh.....then the euro says enjoy the cold you got last nite it was as cold as you will see for awhile. I'm steppin out to get some air lol see you guys later tonite.

[Damage In Tolland]

But there was never a bitter cold signal. People fall in love with the gfs op showing 510 thicknesses overhead and take it to the bank. A bitter cold signal would be a massive ridge over the west and Alaska. We don't and will not have that. What we have is a west based nao that will keep the coldest air in Canada and out in the Plains with occasional intrusions of cold...possibly preceded by storminess. Overall a cool pattern, but not arctic or torchy.

Well the Euro ensembles have had a much below signal to them for that period for over a week now..

Kneehighs is saying we're headed for a much above normal pattern and Fairfield libations thinks we have no below normal days in the next 10

[ORH_wxman]

What have I been saying all this time?

To be honest, there are still massive disagreements in guidance that won't be resolved; however, all the models are showing a strong GoA low (+EPO) which makes it hard to split the polar jet, something that's very important for a major winter storm in a La Niña winter. Also, the retrograding of the Greenland block pulls the ULL over the Maritimes dangerously far west, which could cause it to phase with a s/w ejecting from the Pacific into the Plains, resulting in another cutter. We'll see though.

Ironically its the polar jet splitting in the GOA that causes the huge warmup in the latter stages of the 12z Euro run....split off southern stream amplifies into a huge wester.rockies trough rather than keeping the flow more zonal out west and then being pushed southeast under the NAO block like the ensembles have been doing.

[CoastalWx]

Well the Euro ensembles have had a much below signal to them for that period for over a week now..

Kneehighs is saying we're headed for a much above normal pattern and Fairfield libations thinks we have no below normal days in the next 10

If you blend what they show verbatim and what the pattern at H5 looked like, you'd see how it was never terribly below normal. That's been the forecast from most people. Verbatim it backed down a little, but honestly, we don't have a huge change in the overall pattern. I know even at work, the overall thinking was not way below normal.

[Dsnowx53]

Ironically its the polar jet splitting in the GOA that causes the huge warmup in the latter stages of the 12z Euro run....split off southern stream amplifies into a huge wester.rockies trough rather than keeping the flow more zonal out west and then being pushed southeast under the NAO block like the ensembles have been doing.

That potentially sounds like Euro SW energy bias...which could really fudge up this pattern.

And besides, it's better to have a semi-cold pattern with storm chances, rather than an arctic intrusion with a NW flow...the 12z GFS illustrated this perfectly considering the block it has.

[Mr Torchey]

Well the Euro ensembles have had a much below signal to them for that period for over a week now..

Kneehighs is saying we're headed for a much above normal pattern and Fairfield libations thinks we have no below normal days in the next 10

I never said that, I said we torch mon-tues and again a week from mon-tues and what I believe to be another cutter, thats what I have always said. I certainly do not see an extended below normal regime coming, but certainly frozen chances from rte 2 north over the next few weeks, nothing down this way but I dont expect it until around xmas anyways.

Its funny watching the meltdowns:)

[Damage In Tolland]

If you blend what they show verbatim and what the pattern at H5 looked like, you'd see how it was never terribly below normal. That's been the forecast from most people. Verbatim it backed down a little, but honestly, we don't have a huge change in the overall pattern. I know even at work, the overall thinking was not way below normal.

Well the problem was some of the mets were saying from T-day thru Dec 10 they felt would be very wintry and would be several snow threats. Then when the Euro comes in looking like hell it upsets people and has people claiming victory .

I don't think there's anyone here who is not a little worried that the pattern we thought we'd be getting, might not be as exciting as advertised,

I'm not heading for the River..but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a little concerned about the last 3 Euro runs

[Mr Torchey]

Well the problem was some of the mets were saying from T-day thru Dec 10 they felt would be very wintry and would be several snow threats. Then when the Euro comes in looking like hell it upsets people and has people claiming victory .

I don't think there's anyone here who is not a little worried that the pattern we thought we'd be getting, might not be as exciting as advertised,

Well said, its not a huge deal, but certainly may not be as exciting as once thought, but it s only november 20th.

[cpickett79]

Well the Euro ensembles have had a much below signal to them for that period for over a week now..

Kneehighs is saying we're headed for a much above normal pattern and Fairfield libations thinks we have no below normal days in the next 10

all i'm trying to get across is ....you know what there is increasing evdience that the cold pattern (that nobody thought was going to be Arctic) is showing some holes. yes it's in the long range ....but there is some consistency developing on the Euro....and that consistentcy i thought ..(in the long term) is what gave us the heads up on the pattern change in the first place

on the bright side its a beautiful sunny saturday and we still have most of the weekend to hopefuly enjoy off from work...with the family ....etc.

54.5 degrees .....torchariffic.

i remember gibbs said he likes the DEC 1-5 period......

[Ginx snewx]

Wow step away and come back to the youngsters climbing off the Tappanzee. It is November and we already have had more below 32 days than last year. What a disastah thread. Glad Will has taken out the hammer.

[ORH_wxman]

That potentially sounds like Euro SW energy bias...which could really fudge up this pattern.

And besides, it's better to have a semi-cold pattern with storm chances, rather than an arctic intrusion with a NW flow...the 12z GFS illustrated this perfectly considering the block it has.

Yeah its been really digging those troughs in the SW....and that could be a huge problem for it if its doing this incorrectly. It actually split the jet though in the GOA beginning around 144h and by 192h you see a huge split flow over the western US.

[Ginx snewx]

all i'm trying to get across is ....you know what there is increasing evdience that the cold pattern (that nobody thought was going to be Arctic) is showing some holes. yes it's in the long range ....but there is some consistency developing on the Euro....and that consistentcy i thought ..(in the long term) is what gave us the heads up on the pattern change in the first place

on the bright side its a beautiful sunny saturday and we still have most of the weekend to hopefuly enjoy off from work...with the family ....etc.

54.5 degrees .....torchariffic.

i remember gibbs said he likes the DEC 1-5 period......

Cloudy cold windy here

[CoastalWx]

Well said, its not a huge deal, but certainly may not be as exciting as once thought, but it s only november 20th.

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. I think I even said several times in the past few days, that despite what the "mean" showed, snow storms are not a lock as we don't know the exact details. I even said the ensembles hinted at a Plains low after Thanksgiving, but they get lost in all the weenies locking in gfs arctic cold. I'll be surprised if we don't have a snow event for somebody in sne by Decemer 10th or so.

[nzucker]

Ironically its the polar jet splitting in the GOA that causes the huge warmup in the latter stages of the 12z Euro run....split off southern stream amplifies into a huge wester.rockies trough rather than keeping the flow more zonal out west and then being pushed southeast under the NAO block like the ensembles have been doing.

Yeah that's when the big warm-up comes but the GoA Low is already established by Day 5/6 and is helping to knock the PV back towards Eurasia...you can see the vortex reforming in Siberia. Later in the run is when it splits and carves out a massive trough out west. I'd just like to see the Pacific showing more signs of cooperating with a +PNA/-EPO look since we are already missing out on the first couple of cold airmasses of the season which are dumping into the Plains and Rockies.

[Damage In Tolland]

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. I think I even said several times in the past few days, that despite what the "mean" showed, snow storms are not a lock as we don't know the exact details. I even said the ensembles hinted at a Plains low after Thanksgiving, but they get lost in all the weenies locking in gfs arctic cold. I'll be surprised if we don't have a snow event for somebody in sne by Decemer 10th or so.

You sound irritable

[CoastalWx]

Well the problem was some of the mets were saying from T-day thru Dec 10 they felt would be very wintry and would be several snow threats. Then when the Euro comes in looking like hell it upsets people and has people claiming victory .

I don't think there's anyone here who is not a little worried that the pattern we thought we'd be getting, might not be as exciting as advertised,

I'm not heading for the River..but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a little concerned about the last 3 Euro runs

Who said that? I think it was more that it could be wintry with some snow threats potentially for sne. I'll stand by that.

I admit that we could have storms running into sne from the south instead of them going under sne. We just don't know the details yet.

[CoastalWx]

You sound irritable

Not at all. Just trying to inject some reality.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah that's when the big warm-up comes but the GoA Low is already established by Day 5/6 and is helping to knock the PV back towards Eurasia...you can see the vortex reforming in Siberia. Later in the run is when it splits and carves out a massive trough out west. I'd just like to see the Pacific showing more signs of cooperating with a +PNA/-EPO look since we are already missing out on the first couple of cold airmasses of the season which are dumping into the Plains and Rockies.

You aren't going to see too many +PNAs in Ninas...we lived with a -PNA in '07-'08 and we lived with it in '08-'09.....we'll have to live with it again this winter.

[cpickett79]

why are highs tommorrow about 15 degrees cooler (53 today IMBY) vs forecast of (38) tommorrow....if heights are only falling from say 5430 to 5360. and 850's only about 3/c cooler tommorrow

is it less downsloping with a N wind tommorrow? less mixing...just curious

[CoastalWx]

why are highs tommorrow about 15 degrees cooler (53 today IMBY) vs forecast of (38) tommorrow....if heights are only falling from say 5430 to 5360. and 850's only about 3/c cooler tommorrow

is it less downsloping with a N wind tommorrow? less mixing...just curious

Low level cold. You can have high thicknesses, but very cold surface temps since cold air can be shallow and dense.

[cpickett79]

Low level cold. You can have high thicknesses, but very cold surface temps since cold air can be shallow and dense.

thank you sir. one more thing

when looking at models ....what is the best indicator to look at in determining Low level cold air. i guess just the 2m temps? or any other indicators

[Damage In Tolland]

thank you sir. one more thing

when looking at models ....what is the best indicator to look at in determining Low level cold air. i guess just the 2m temps? or any other indicators

Weren't you stepping out for some air 30 minutes ago?

[Ginx snewx]

Low level cold. You can have high thicknesses, but very cold surface temps since cold air can be shallow and dense.

Hmmm... Come in Ryan, come in.....Ryan are you there? Come in Ryan, come in......

[ORH_wxman]

thank you sir. one more thing

when looking at models ....what is the best indicator to look at in determining Low level cold air. i guess just the 2m temps? or any other indicators

2m temps are probably the best but if you see a good sfc high in a favorable spot like W Quebec or Ontario, then you should be aware that ll cold could be more impressive than 850 temps might indicate.