Post Turkey Day Storm Threat

[ski MRG]

Wow, pretty strong signal for a low on 12/2 12/3 on the GFS ensembles. This date has been signaled for a few days now.

That's our baby right there Scott. Lock it in.

[cpickett79]

well the new euro does drop the cold front in here a bit sooner....(wed 12z) <5400 across mass pike hr 72 ....with low hanging back by colorado springs out west.

(compared w 12z yesterday....as i don't have access to the 6hr intervals the mets do)

[OKpowdah]

Wow, pretty strong signal for a low on 12/2 12/3 on the GFS ensembles. This date has been signaled for a few days now.

That's extremely impressive for 300hrs out

[OKpowdah]

Surface high to our north looks a little more assertive on Thanksgiving

[cpickett79]

Surface high to our north looks a little more assertive on Thanksgiving

but not much in the way of precip on Tday ....handing back from NYC S to delmarva then back WNW

[CoastalWx]

Still a warmer solution on the euro, although there will be some wintry for some. Not as intense with the primary out in the Lakes.

[Damage In Tolland]

AS we thought(me and Ginx and JB)

Interestingly enough, the system may come out enough in two pieces to really cause problems, with low level chilly air getting out in front of the main system so that in the interior northeast ( above 1000 feet, north of the Mason Dixon line) and in the lakes, frozen or freezing precip is the main event Wed into Thursday. There is still model warfare going on with the GFS relatively benign compared to its foreign counterparts

[cpickett79]

rather broad 996 lp goin sliding ENE/NE thru michigan / NW NY

no secondary pop ...in that scenario?

[Damage In Tolland]

rather broad 996 lp goin sliding ENE/NE thru michigan / NW NY

no secondary pop ...in that scenario?

Road trip?

[cpickett79]

Still a warmer solution on the euro, although there will be some wintry for some. Not as intense with the primary out in the Lakes.

scott does it suprise you that there is no sign of a secondary by friday noontime on the euro with that weaker primary set up ...or no?

[Damage In Tolland]

Socks is online..wearing only socks and naked on a leather chair

[cpickett79]

Road trip?

i'm half way to caribou maine chasing 2 inches of snow right now.

[CoastalWx]

scott does it suprise you that there is no sign of a secondary by friday noontime on the euro with that weaker primary set up ...or no?

Nah, I wouldn't get worked up over that. That's the least of the issues. Many times, models may not see a weak secondary when in reality there is likely a weak one crossing sne, since the isobars look kind of baggy. Forget about Thursday unless you have a fettish for mixed precip going to rain in sw nh.

[Logan11]

HAH Well I hope that works out, but I'm the kind of guy that focuses on the bird at hand (some wintry precip T-day) rather than two in the bush (model fantasy on Dec 2-3).

Just the way I am when there is some wx of interest close at hand. I have this front that blew through today and brief cold shot, then the change at "some" winter precip T-day, etc.

When things are just dead boring I might waste time on events that are 10 days + out in desperation.

That's our baby right there Scott. Lock it in.

[cpickett79]

12z euro ....says enjoy the cold shot yesterday it is the coldest it was going to get........and enjoy tonite as well because there is no cold behind the t-giving storm at least not as cold as yesterday.

[Mr Torchey]

Give DT some credit, sure it might cool down, but nothing like most people thought, he took a chance and it looks like he is going to be correct.

[moneypitmike]

Wow, pretty strong signal for a low on 12/2 12/3 on the GFS ensembles. This date has been signaled for a few days now.

I for one am getting a little tired of the "wait until next year" scenarios that seem to playing out. We're heading into December and it seems that few events have been playing out as modeled.

[cpickett79]

Nah, I wouldn't get worked up over that. That's the least of the issues. Many times, models may not see a weak secondary when in reality there is likely a weak one crossing sne, since the isobars look kind of baggy. Forget about Thursday unless you have a fettish for mixed precip going to rain in sw nh.

should i forget about the pattern change as well.....euro looks to only get sne to -5c (colder last nite).....stays seasonably cool sat/sun over new england...then building heights soon to follow...with 0c up past international falls on sat 12z. could dr no be smoking the crack pipe or do we have some real changes to the pattern change.

[nzucker]

Give DT some credit, sure it might cool down, but nothing like most people thought, he took a chance and it looks like he is going to be correct.

What have I been saying all this time?

To be honest, there are still massive disagreements in guidance that won't be resolved; however, all the models are showing a strong GoA low (+EPO) which makes it hard to split the polar jet, something that's very important for a major winter storm in a La Niña winter. Also, the retrograding of the Greenland block pulls the ULL over the Maritimes dangerously far west, which could cause it to phase with a s/w ejecting from the Pacific into the Plains, resulting in another cutter. We'll see though.

[cpickett79]

I for one am getting a little tired of the "wait until next year" scenarios that seem to playing out. We're heading into December and it seems that few events have been playing out as modeled.

steps up to podium...................nothing has changed as per the pattern change..........everything is going more or less on schedule

or the euro is on crack .............

take your pick.....but it's one or the other.

[H2Otown_WX]

steps up to podium...................nothing has changed as per the pattern change..........everything is going more or less on schedule

or the euro is on crack .............

take your pick.....but it's one or the other.

I really hope the Euro is wrong. That's all I can say.

[CoastalWx]

Everyone needs to climb back from the bridge. I hope nobody was expecting a complete and all out arctic assault. That was never in the cards. I'd also treat the euro op with a grain of salt for now. Like I said, the d10 threat could still be a mild solution as even hinted by the ensembles, but we'll have some chances down the road. Just because the ensemble mean is below 540, doesn't mean every storm will be frozen. The details are to be determined, but the key players are still there for opportunities. That block is not going anywhere for now. Keep a realistic approach and you won't be let down. It's not even Thanksgiving yet. Climo says relax and put the knife down.

[cpickett79]

the board's BP is going up. Weenies crawling out 5'th story ledges.

Rev Kev Rev Kev.....we need a sermon fast.........

i want cape cod weather take on the pattern change playing out.....

kev perhaps you could throw sedating agents instead of weenies just for today

[Logan11]

We don't live far enough north. While a decently snowy locale here, I'm not satisfied. Northeast VT or ME beckons one day maybe.

I think the Euro would move it is as snow in the interior. 1027 high to the north and the system occludes. Could be a fun shot of it T-day morning then I wonder if the low levels ever warm much before the occlusion passes. Probably one of those deals where the coastal plain spikes to 55F Thursday night and we don't get above 40F, then the cold blows in pre-dawn Friday for one very wintry day anyway.

I for one am getting a little tired of the "wait until next year" scenarios that seem to playing out. We're heading into December and it seems that few events have been playing out as modeled.

[nzucker]

12z ECM looks pretty horrid for the pattern change post-Thanksgiving. Cold front isn't nearly as strong as originally modeled with most of SNE only down to -5C 850s, and then the warm-up is brutally rapid as another huge trough builds into the West (-PNA) with the GoA low blocking all arctic air flow into the CONUS. This trough wants to amplify over the Plains and torch all of us, although this might be an example of the typical ECM bias of holding back too much energy in the SW. The GFS did have a trough coming into the west as well around Day 9/10 at 12z, so this doesn't seem like a totally quirky solution. Good chance the ECM is correct and the cold/snow chances remain over the Plains/West for the near future, which would be climo for a La Niña anyway.

[free_man]

Euro is wintry..and I am the interior

Compared to New London or Groton.     We'll see,  but it looks like a crap setup as we thought.

[Damage In Tolland]

DT didn't get anything right. We're heading into a below normal pattern. One thing that has become clear is it's not as cold or as snowy as it once looked. That doesn't mean it's not wintry, but to have 3 bad runs in a row on the Euro means it's onto something. It's possible the Euro ensembles are going to bust on this brutal cold they had

[Mr Torchey]

Everyone needs to climb back from the bridge. I hope nobody was expecting a complete and all out arctic assault. That was never in the cards. I'd also treat the euro op with a grain of salt for now. Like I said, the d10 threat could still be a mild solution as even hinted by the ensembles, but we'll have some chances down the road. Just because the ensemble mean is below 540, doesn't mean every storm will be frozen. The details are to be determined, but the key players are still there for opportunities. That block is not going anywhere for now. Keep a realistic approach and you won't be let down. It's not even Thanksgiving yet. Climo says relax and put the knife down.

January is going to rock!!

[cpickett79]

Everyone needs to climb back from the bridge. I hope nobody was expecting a complete and all out arctic assault. That was never in the cards. I'd also treat the euro op with a grain of salt for now. Like I said, the d10 threat could still be a mild solution as even hinted by the ensembles, but we'll have some chances down the road. Just because the ensemble mean is below 540, doesn't mean every storm will be frozen. The details are to be determined, but the key players are still there for opportunities. That block is not going anywhere for now. Keep a realistic approach and you won't be let down. It's not even Thanksgiving yet. Climo says relax and put the knife down.

The T-giving (weekend period thru dec 5 was always talked about as the cold period....if we don't have that.......then people will rightfully get on the edge......

of course we will have chances down the road it's winter....and i really am not trying to be anything but thankful for all your responses.....bc you always are quick to reply to others....but if the euro plays out close to verbatim .....then the majority of the pattern change thread is toilet paper......and no political double talk or damage control could alter that.

Nzucker and Dt were all over this.....and we will see how things play out....but we definitely need a sermon from kev to restore the faith....

[nzucker]

DT didn't get anything right. We're heading into a below normal pattern. One thing that has become clear is it's not as cold or as snowy as it once looked. That doesn't mean it's not wintry, but to have 3 bad runs in a row on the Euro means it's onto something. It's possible the Euro ensembles are going to bust on this brutal cold they had

How is this a below normal pattern?

Monday, your 850s are above 0C and you probably get into the upper 40s with lows in the upper 30s according to NWS.

Tuesday is an all out torch with +8C 850s.

Then a brief shot of cold air Thanksgiving before another cutter comes.

DT would be right if the 12z ECM verified.