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Post Turkey Day Storm Threat

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

Start as frozen yes....but it looks to me like the GFS has moved a bit toward the Euro with the dominant low in the lakes.

When you have these kind of fights between the blocking to the northeast and the incoming northern stream low, it can go a couple ways. 1.) the best scenario where the block wins and the low is forced under it, to deepen along the coast and become primary low or 2.) the incoming low remains dominant and moves up against the block. This is starting to look more like #2 and yeah we could get frozen to start, but not a good snowstorm....ultimate turn to ice/rain and then do we torch and deluge before the fropa re: ECM or is it more benign with the low levels never warming much re: GFS.

Oh well La Nina is generally going to favor northern stream lows and loves to keep the lowest pressure in the lakes.

Yeah even with the euro, many places inland will start as some sort of frozen.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Start as frozen yes....but it looks to me like the GFS has moved a bit toward the Euro with the dominant low in the lakes.

When you have these kind of fights between the blocking to the northeast and the incoming northern stream low, it can go a couple ways. 1.) the best scenario where the block wins and the low is forced under it, to deepen along the coast and become primary low or 2.) the incoming low remains dominant and moves up against the block. This is starting to look more like #2 and yeah we could get frozen to start, but not a good snowstorm....ultimate turn to ice/rain and then do we torch and deluge before the fropa re: ECM or is it more benign with the low levels never warming much re: GFS.

Oh well La Nina is generally going to favor northern stream lows and loves to keep the lowest pressure in the lakes.

It has moved towards the euro. I don't think a snow event was ever in the cards, or I hope at least people in sne didn't think that.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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:weight_lift:

We've talked about that period for at least a month now as the focus of our early season attention.

A bit of a ridge pops in western Canada, but that seems to be enough to amplify the s/w coming down the pike on this run. The low develops and moves close to the Cape. I bet some of the individual members have one heck of a low on them.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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I would not be surprised if it did, It blasted one thru there on an earlier run a couple of days ago.......

I'll take my chances with a nice block to the ne. Having that is not a lock for snow in sne, as troughing could set up out in the Rockies, but any little ridge that pops in the west would help develop a low on the east coast, instead of the OH valley. I think Will even pointed out how a -pna/-nao is a good thing for us, especially December onward. If you have one of those positively tilted troughs in the west, many times that signals good cold across southern Canada. So, with a -nao block, the cold would likely be forced south and battle with the se ridge. That's how we got so many of those 4-8" events ending as drizzle on the coast. The cold was just enough to keep it mostly sn, but low pressure crossed very near Cape Cod and finally brought in a little low level warmth. You guys up north would love a -pna/-nao. The big daddy's usually accompany a +pna/-nao.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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I'll take my chances with a nice block to the ne. Having that is not a lock for snow in sne, as troughing could set up out in the Rockies, but any little ridge that pops in the west would help develop a low on the east coast, instead of the OH valley. I think Will even pointed out how a -pna/-nao is a good thing for us, especially December onward. If you have one of those positively tilted troughs in the west, many times that signals good cold across southern Canada. So, with a -nao block, the cold would likely be forced south and battle with the se ridge. That's how we got so many of those 4-8" events ending as drizzle on the coast. The cold was just enough to keep it mostly sn, but low pressure crossed very near Cape Cod and finally brought in a little low level warmth. You guys up north would love a -pna/-nao. The big daddy's usually accompany a +pna/-nao.

Pd 2 + NAO?

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dryslot

dryslot

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I'll take my chances with a nice block to the ne. Having that is not a lock for snow in sne, as troughing could set up out in the Rockies, but any little ridge that pops in the west would help develop a low on the east coast, instead of the OH valley. I think Will even pointed out how a -pna/-nao is a good thing for us, especially December onward. If you have one of those positively tilted troughs in the west, many times that signals good cold across southern Canada. So, with a -nao block, the cold would likely be forced south and battle with the se ridge. That's how we got so many of those 4-8" events ending as drizzle on the coast. The cold was just enough to keep it mostly sn, but low pressure crossed very near Cape Cod and finally brought in a little low level warmth. You guys up north would love a -pna/-nao. The big daddy's usually accompany a +pna/-nao.

I think that ship sailed a couple of days ago with the GL cutter scenario, Would try to squezze something between the two i would presume, Your right we would be all over that setup.....

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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I'll take my chances with a nice block to the ne. Having that is not a lock for snow in sne, as troughing could set up out in the Rockies, but any little ridge that pops in the west would help develop a low on the east coast, instead of the OH valley. I think Will even pointed out how a -pna/-nao is a good thing for us, especially December onward. If you have one of those positively tilted troughs in the west, many times that signals good cold across southern Canada. So, with a -nao block, the cold would likely be forced south and battle with the se ridge. That's how we got so many of those 4-8" events ending as drizzle on the coast. The cold was just enough to keep it mostly sn, but low pressure crossed very near Cape Cod and finally brought in a little low level warmth. You guys up north would love a -pna/-nao. The big daddy's usually accompany a +pna/-nao.

If we can maintain a pretty strong -NAO through the entire winter than I think ALL of SNE will have a great winter...not just places ORH on north. Think 1970-1971 :drunk:

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