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Post Turkey Day Storm Threat

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Organizing Low

Organizing Low

Posted
Posted

Well, I finished safely below avg and didn't witness a KU, so it varies.

yeah, that was my impression for most of the region, though i do recall that storm that clipped the southern regions of new england.

obviously, it was a terrible, essentially non-existent winter here.... certainly after the janaury 1 retrograde storm, there was nothing after that.

this year cannot possibly be worse, unless we get wall to wall blowtorch, but even that would be better than the misery and boredom of last years slightly above average temps with well below average snowfall combo.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

12z euro does everything in its power to not allow frozen precip in SNE thursday evening. it's fairly cold going in to the day, but precip just can not make it NE...assuming it is seeing the same low and mid level dry air that other guidance is depicting.

Does not show much frozen anywhere until you get up in elevation in NW ME Mtns.......

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CCPSUSuperstorm2010

CCPSUSuperstorm2010

Posted
Posted

I guess disappoiintment comes with realizing that in La Nina winters the PNA does not want to show a ridging pattern, but instead a troughing pattern. PNA does not want to change all that much according to the models, so seeing a -PNA is disappointing. However I have seen winter storms where the PNA was neutral or negative, so all that matters is where the position is of a certain feature. Aleutian ridge would probably have to be a tad further west over the western islands instead over the central islands so the -EPO trough can be pushed further west and allow some sort of ridge to develop over the western US(PNA) region. I really need to learn to be more objective and not allow the emotions to get involved. I guess we all need to learn from our mistakes, and I know one flaw is not staying objective enough, so I need to fix that problem to get better.

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cpickett79

cpickett79

Posted
Posted

look friday is still 4 days away so nothing is locked in yet in this pattern .....getting clearer but not locked.

well at least wednesday's cold is LOCKED in. that is consistent and on the gfs, nam , euro again at 12z

euro has -8c 850 at mid morning wednesday so .....but there is good mixing forecast.

yesterday i tried to temper my euro enthusiasm b/c it was still 5 or so days out.....i think this run is more crutial than many for the fri-sun period but so is tonite's and tommorrow's will lock it in.

FRI now shows 1c 850's by mike and pete with 2-3 c 850's for most of sne cept warmer S coast and toward NYC......so no torch friday on this run......i don't have access to 2m temps friday but scott says some areas in SW nh could see ice .... has -8c back for saturday 12z so this is good

Scott if you don't mind what are the 2m temps at wachusett mountain friday.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

I guess disappoiintment comes with realizing that in La Nina winters the PNA does not want to show a ridging pattern, but instead a troughing pattern. PNA does not want to change all that much according to the models, so seeing a -PNA is disappointing. However I have seen winter storms where the PNA was neutral or negative, so all that matters is where the position is of a certain feature. Aleutian ridge would probably have to be a tad further west over the western islands instead over the central islands so the -EPO trough can be pushed further west and allow some sort of ridge to develop over the western US(PNA) region. I really need to learn to be more objective and not allow the emotions to get involved. I guess we all need to learn from our mistakes, and I know one flaw is not staying objective enough, so I need to fix that problem to get better.

Hey man it's cool. Don't beat yourself up over it. We all want to learn more, including myself. The good news is that it's very early in the season, and we potentially could be looking at something exciting over the next 2 weeks. It's not like we look at the pattern and say "Oh my God, this is horrible". On the contrary, it looks somewhat favorable, but as always...the devil is in the details.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

look friday is still 4 days away so nothing is locked in yet in this pattern .....getting clearer but not locked.

well at least wednesday's cold is LOCKED in. that is consistent and on the gfs, nam , euro again at 12z

euro has -8c 850 at mid morning wednesday so .....but there is good mixing forecast.

yesterday i tried to temper my euro enthusiasm b/c it was still 5 or so days out.....i think this run is more crutial than many for the fri-sun period but so is tonite's and tommorrow's will lock it in.

FRI now shows 1c 850's by mike and pete with 2-3 c 850's for most of sne cept warmer S coast and toward NYC......so no torch friday on this run......i don't have access to 2m temps friday but scott says some areas in SW nh could see ice .... has -8c back for saturday 12z so this is good

Scott if you don't mind what are the 2m temps at wachusett mountain friday.

Eh, that's a pretty specific point but they should be warming through the day Friday. Maybe a little sleet or zr prior to 12z. I don't think they climb much past 40..id at all.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

would like the TREND of lower heights in the SW to stop any run now.

But on the bright side BIG UPSLOPE weekend for the greens and powderfreak and jspin should have wood. and cold enough for wa wa to make snow for their opening weekend.....if the small snowpack can survive tommorrow's torch.

Nw mtns here as well, Looks like some LE out in NY as well......

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

yeah, that was my impression for most of the region, though i do recall that storm that clipped the southern regions of new england.

obviously, it was a terrible, essentially non-existent winter here.... certainly after the janaury 1 retrograde storm, there was nothing after that.

this year cannot possibly be worse, unless we get wall to wall blowtorch, but even that would be better than the misery and boredom of last years slightly above average temps with well below average snowfall combo.

Ginx could find a way to paint death as a half decent time.

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CCPSUSuperstorm2010

CCPSUSuperstorm2010

Posted
Posted

Hey man it's cool. Don't beat yourself up over it. We all want to learn more, including myself. The good news is that it's very early in the season, and we potentially could be looking at something exciting over the next 2 weeks. It's not like we look at the pattern and say "Oh my God, this is horrible". On the contrary, it looks somewhat favorable, but as always...the devil is in the details.

Thanks Coastal, yeah the problem is there is not one sound pattern that we can say will give us this type of weather pattern over the eastern US and then its done. The problem is there is many variables that need to be accounted for, and if one slip in one detail the pattern changes. I understand the unpredictable nature of weather and expect that, problem is, if I wanted to create a pattern on paper, for a fantasy dream storm system, what type of pattern would or should I create? Say I was to do a project on superstorms. I would try to come up with a doable pattern in which coastal New England and the rest of the I95 corridor would get smoked with a large and very intense coastal storm. So the answers are always in the details, but where do I get the pattern that shifts the March 1993 Superstorm about 100 miles further to the east? I mean that storm formed with all of the wrong indices, I mean a +NAO, +AO and -PNA, but the pattern with that storm came with it a PNA ridge. Go figure. Anyways enough with the ranting.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

on the SV stuff yes. that's why i was asking scott. his euro stuff through his work is about 1000x better.

Hey, looks like the 32 line would be a little north of what I saw at first. Basically more nw of CON through LCI and IZG. That's verbatim, so I bet there are sneaky spots on the east slopes of sw nh above 1,000; that are cold.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Off-topic.

Given that it's a vacation day for me and too gross to do the yard work I had planned, I've lit a fire in the living room (it's a formal room that we close off in the winter and don't heat except for Christmas season and when company's over) to conduct a "what was life like" experiment. I have concluded that it must have been really cold in the houses back in the 18th century. It's up to 39.4 outside. The fire's been going for about two hours and the indoor temp is a whopping 55.8*.

Central heat FTW.

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