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Post Turkey Day Storm Threat

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

HM did say that anything could happen given this pattern.

Yeah it could. I also think this may be one of those pattern where we gradually get colder as time goes out. In other words, the storms that happen beyond D10-D14 have a better shot of being colder, than the ones coming up between now and D10. I can see that happening as well.

Pretty much anything is on the table right now, with the potential for something big with that block to our northeast. We just don't know. Hopefully, something will pan out.

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OKpowdah

OKpowdah

Posted
Posted

Not too dissimilar from yesterday's 12z Euro. Same theme: Lobe off the PV phases into the trough while maintaining the 50/50 low, resulting in a monster storm for someone in the eastern third of the nation. Lotta potential. By mid December, I'm going to have 20 foot drifts of potential IMBY.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

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I'm not even looking at these individual deterministics......all I need to know at this range is that there are some integral background signals present.

Pretty much. I like to feed the flame though. I'm at about 30/70 on heightened awareness of an Archambault type even occurring in the latter half of the first week of Dec.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

Some folks like to bounce between euphoria and wrist slitting with each run.....save that for the D 3-6 range, when its warranted.

All anyone needs to know at this time is that the signals are there on the models for potential storms and will wait to see how things develop as we move forward, Its better then showing a dry pattern.......

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Eyes are gonna roll on this statement (and probably should) but the 00z CMC never gave up on the D10 bomb like the other runs. Granted, it grinds a 975 mb low up the Hudson, but account for that model's native westerly bias in middle/extended ranges would really put just about everyone from the MA to Caribou in business.

Am noticing a subtle trend in the 12z GFS to beginning correcting back toward a the favored suppressive track enforced by the -NAO (AGAIN, that was not supporting the 00z cycles at all!)

We'll see. But this should be more fun than disappointing to anyone at this time range.

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted

Eyes are gonna roll on this statement (and probably should) but the 00z CMC never gave up on the D10 bomb like the other runs. Granted, it grinds a 975 mb low up the Hudson, but account for that model's native westerly bias in middle/extended ranges would really put just about everyone from the MA to Caribou in business.

Am noticing a subtle trend in the 12z GFS to beginning correcting back toward a the favored suppressive track enforced by the -NAO (AGAIN, that was not supporting the 00z cycles at all!)

We'll see. But this should be more fun than disappointing to anyone at this time range.

Like the optimism.

I have a good feeling for W. Ma in early Dec.

BTW, thrilled to have you back on the boards posting your thoughts!

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Cold Miser

Cold Miser

Posted
Posted

All anyone needs to know at this time is that the signals are there on the models for potential storms and will wait to see how things develop as we move forward, Its better then showing a dry pattern.......

. . . Yes, but when that dry pattern becomes a wet pattern, and not a white one, that's when the hardware stores will see a run on heavy duty rope.

All we can do is hope for the best, and not be so sucked into the somewhat distant future.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
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I hope you are right Tip.

Right about what? :)

If you mean keeping an open mind and not allowing your self to be disappointed - I definitely am right considering all. That's really the central point in that - the details as to why there is reason to be optimistic is not a forecast.

I wouldn't dream to forecast for D10 based on what I am seeing - my goodness.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
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. . . Yes, but when that dry pattern becomes a wet pattern, and not a white one, that's when the hardware stores will see a run on heavy duty rope.

All we can do is hope for the best, and not be so sucked into the somewhat distant future.

I will take my chances with a pattern showing moisture in Dec as some of it being white, Up this way anyways, Like i said at least it shows some storms, Just need to track in the right posistions and it looks like that won't be ironed out until a few days before the event

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Right about what? :)

If you mean keeping an open mind and not allowing your self to be disappointed - I definitely am right considering all. That's really the central point in that - the details as to why there is reason to be optimistic is not a forecast.

I wouldn't dream to forecast for D10 based on what I am seeing - my goodness.

I feel like you can't drive that point home enough. Someone will always be disappointed, despite the warnings we give them not to fall for the trap.

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CCPSUSuperstorm2010

CCPSUSuperstorm2010

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Right about what? :)

If you mean keeping an open mind and not allowing your self to be disappointed - I definitely am right considering all. That's really the central point in that - the details as to why there is reason to be optimistic is not a forecast.

I wouldn't dream to forecast for D10 based on what I am seeing - my goodness.

My my, I would never expect a professional or even hobbyist weather forecaster to dream the forecast, but be objective and give the facts. I was just thinking that it would be nice to see a storm, but I understand that we are still a good 8 days away from the event, and being disappointed in early DEC for snow is pathetic. Just an overeaction on my part. I still see the pattern shifiting ever so slightly east with the trough axis and we get our storm. GFS has an east based block and tries to weaken the 50/50 low. Right now I am still seeing a loss in translation with the guidance. Some models show the storm east like the 00z GGEM and some storms see the storm west like the GFS. Right now it is anyone's guess, but without the +PNA showing up, I don't see why I would be optimistic. Models have been pretty consistent showing a - PNA still.

I feel like you can't drive that point home enough. Someone will always be disappointed, despite the warnings we give them not to fall for the trap.

I guess disappointment would be the wrong word too use. I wanted to believe in the storm fantasy range, instead of sharing an objective mind set and taking the models as guidance run to run, instead what I did was believing what the models showed would be true and overeacted. La Ninas do produce favorable large EC snowstorms, and the January 1996 Blizzard was no exception. That 95-96 winter was in a strong La NIna as well. Anyways, you guys are right and there is no reason to be disappointed, especially with a potential storm system 8 days away. I understand and that was a simple mistake on my part.

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